News From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 683,544 tons expecting 450-550,000 tons
  • Corn at 1,448,812 tons expecting 1.15-1.35 M tons
  • Beans at 267,.939 tons expecting 325-425,000

 

Reports of bird flu outbreak in Japan

 

Safras e Mercado said as of Friday 86% of the Brazilian bean crop has been planted vs. 80% a week ago , vs. 82% a year ago, and vs. 78% average

 

Safras e Mercado said as of Friday 74% of the Brazilian summer corn crop has been harvested vs. 63% a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2nd corn crop at 40+ MMT

 

Agritel estimated Russia’s 2014 wheat crop at 48.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 49.9 MMT and down 8% from 2013

 

Agritel estimated Russia’s 2014 corn crop at 9.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 10.2 MMT and down 6% from 2013

 

Agritel estimated Ukraine’s 2014 corn crop at 23.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 26.8 MMT and down 18% from a year ago .

 

Agritel estimated Ukraine’s 2014 wheat crop at 18.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.0 MMT and down 16.5% from a year ago

 

EPA data – US generates 1.2 billion D6 ethanol rins in March vs. 1.0 billion in February – Reuters

 

May Minneapolis wheat closed above the 200 day moving average of 715 . May Minneapolis settled at 717 ½

 

Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm . Expecting corn harvest to be 1-5% complete (Reuters) or 3-6% complete (analysts) . Expecting winter wheat conditions to be up 1-2 to down 1-2% from a week ago (Reuters) or steady to 2% lower than a week ago (analysts)

 

Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out tomorrow with their Malaysian April 1-15th palm oil export estimates

 

NOPA March crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . Based on a Reuters survey, expecting

  • Crush – average estimate 146.1 MB (biggest March crush in four years) , range of estimates are 140.0-153.0 MB. In February 2014 crush was 141.612 MB. In March 2013 crush was 137.080 MB
  • Bean oil stocks – average estimate 1.917 billion lbs. , range of estimates are 1.798-2.025 billion. In February 2014 bean oil stocks were 1.893 billion and in March 2013 bean oil stocks were 2.765 billion.
  • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In February 2014 meal exports were 714,231 tons and in March 2013 meal exports were 638,327 tons

 

Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 7K
  • Corn bought 5K
  • Beans bought 4K
  • Meal bought 3K
  • Bean oil bought 1K

 

Open outcry option players

  • ABN bought 1,000 July bean 1400/1300 put spreads at 23-23 3/8
  • FI bought 1,500 May bean 1500 calls at 9
  • GFI bought 1,300 Nov bean 1100/1060 put spreads at 19 3/8 -19 ¾
  • ADM sold 500 June corn 490 straddles at 33
  • RJO bought 1,000 week 1 corn 500 puts and sold 1,000 week 2 505 puts at 4 ¾ credit
  • RJO bought 1,000 May corn 500 puts and sold 1,000 week 2 corn 505 puts at 4 ¼ debit
  • RJO bought 2,000 Dec corn 600/700 call spreads at 10 1/8
  • RJO bought 1,000 Sept corn 550/640 call spreads at 14 ¾
  • ABN bought 800 May wheat 675 puts at 11 ½ (400 contracts ) and at 14 (400 contracts), and bought 200 May futures at 674 and bought 200 May futures at 679
  • Tenco bought 2,500 July wheat 570/540 put spreads at 1 7/8
  • JP Morgan bought 600 July wheat 650 puts at 20 ¼
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 June wheat 650 puts at 9 ½ -9 ¾ and sold 230 July futures at 691
  • Tenco bought 1,500 July KC wheat 630/610 put spreads at 1 5/8
  • Jefferies sold 200 May bean oil 3850 calls at 360

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

K vol 20 500 str 14-14 ¾

M vol 22 ¾ 510 str 31-32 ½

N vol 26 ½ 500 str 45 ¾ 46 ½

U vol 29 ¾ 510 str 71 ¼ -72 ¼

Z vol 26 ¾ 500 str 84-85

H vol 25 510 str 92-94

 

Beans

K vol 21 ¼ 1480 str 44 ½-46 ½

M vol 23 1460 str 87 ½-89 ½

N vol 22 ½ 1460 str 112-115

Q vol 22 ¼ 1380 130-132

U vol 22 ¼ 1280 str 133-137

X vol 20 ½ 1220 str 143-146

F vol 19 1220 str 154-157

 

Wheat

K vol 27 680 str 25-27

M vol 28 ½ 690 str 50-53

N vol 29 ½ 690 68-72

U vol 30 700 str 97-101

Z vol 28 710 str 120-125

 

KC Wheat

K vol 25 ½ 740 str 26-28

M vol 27 750 str 51-55

N vol 28 750 str 70-74

U vol 27 ¾ 750 str 97-101

Z vol 26 ½ 760 str 121-126

 

Minneapolis wheat

K vol 18 720 str 15-21

M vol 22 730 str 40-46

U vol 23 730 str 75-84

Z vol 22 750 str 95-105

H vol 20 760 str 104-114

 

Meal

K vol 24.5 480 str 17.5-19.5

M vol 24 470 str 29.5-31.5

N vol 23.5 470 str 38.5-40

Q vol 23 440 str 43-45

U vol 22.25 410 str 44-46

Z vol 20.5 380 str 49.5-51.5

 

Bean oil

K vol 21.25 42 str 115-130

M vol 21 4250 str 225-240

N vol 20.75 4250 str 290-305

Q vol 20.25 42 str 345-375

U vol 20 42 str 385-405

Z vol 19.25 42 str 480-505

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN            CLOSE

MAY      38-40             42-43

JLY          35-36.5        34.5-35

AUG       45-47            46-47

SEP         94.5-1.00     98-99

OCT        84-85             83.5-84.5

DEC        79-79.5         78-79

JAN        71-73             71-73

MCH      70-71             70-71

MAY5    68.5-70          68.5-70

JLY5        66-69.5          67.5-69.5

 

No crush players today.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE