News From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 11/05/14

News:

 

Egypt bought 235,000 tons of wheat for December shipment. 180,000 tons of French wheat and 55,000 tons of Ukraine wheat

 

AgRural estimated Brazilian bean plantings at 29% vs. 48% a year ago

 

Jordan canceled tender for 100,000 tons of hard milling wheat for April –May shipment

 

Japan seeks 9,820 tons of feed wheat and bought 28,800 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Informa’s ‘14/15 Global Estimates

  • Global wheat crop estimated at 724.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 726.2 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 714.9 MMT
  • Global corn crop estimated at 984.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 982.5 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 990.4 MMT
  • Global soybean crop estimated at 313.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 313.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 285.3 MMT
  • Global rapeseed crop estimated at 71.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 70.7 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 71.9 MMT

 

Cordonnier weekly crop estimates

  • ‘14/15 Brazilian ban crop estimated at 92.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 93.0 MMT
  • Said Brazilian bean crop is about 25% complete vs. 50% average and vs. 46% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 72.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 73.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 Argentine bean crop estimated at 56.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘14/15 Argentine corn crop estimated at 21.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘14/15 Paraguay bean crop estimated at 9.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.5 MMT
  • Total ‘14/15 South American bean crop estimated at 163.0 MMT  vs. previous estimate of 163.5 MMT
  • Total ‘14/15 South American corn crop estimated at 97.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 98.1 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Ukraine said Ukraine has exported over 6.0 MMT of wheat so far this ‘14/15 season

 

USDA attaché in Ukraine said Ukraine has exported over 1.0 MMT of barley so far this ‘14/15 season

 

USDA attaché in Kazakhstan estimated 2014 wheat crop at 13.0 MMT vs. 13.9 MMT in 2013

 

USDA attaché in Kazakhstan estimated 2014 wheat exports at 6.0 MMT vs. 7.5 MMT a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Pakistan said Pakistan has recently bought 40,000 tons of US meal

 

USDA attaché in Algeria estimated ‘14/15 total cereal at 3.4 MMT

 

Strike by Argentine grain inspectors suspended ahead of talks

 

Dec corn closed above the 100 day moving average of 369. Dec corn settled at 370 ¼

 

Dec bean oil closed above the 50 day moving average of 3266. Dec bean oil settled at 3272

 

Today was the second day of the Deutsche Bank roll. Roll ends on Monday. They are rolling long Dec 2014 corn positions into Dec 2015 corn. On the close

  • 6,192 Dec ’14 /Dec ’15 corn spreads traded at -44 to -43 ¼

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 3,000
  • Corn bought 8,000
  • Beans bought 4,000
  • Meal bought 2,000
  • Bean oil sold 2,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • Wheat 325,000 -525,000 tons
    • Corn 600,000- 800,000 tons
    • Beans 900,000 -1.1 M tons
    • Meal 100,000 -250,000 tons
    • Bean oil 5,000- 30,000 tons
    • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +85 BCF

 

USDA November crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Monday November 10th at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for USDA report.

 

Estimates for US 2014 corn and bean production

  • Corn production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.551 BB , range of estimates are 14.242- 14.842 BB. USDA October estimate was 14.475 BB and final 2013 corn production was 13.925 BB
  • Corn yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 175.233 BPA, range of estimates are 171.4 – 178.6 BPA. USDA October estimate was 174.2 BPA and final 2013 corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Bean production (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.967 BB, range of estimates are 3.903- 4.064 BB. USDA October estimate was 3.927 BB and final 2013 bean production was 3.358 BB.
  • Bean yield (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 47.608 BB, range of estimates are 46.8- 48.7 BPA. USDA October estimate was 47.1 BPA and final 2013 bean yield was 44.0 BPA.

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .660 BB, range of estimates are .634- .682 BB. USDA October estimate was .654 BB.
  • Corn (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.135 BB, range of estimates are 1.850- 2.282 BB. USDA October  estimate was 2.081 BB
  • Beans (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .442 BB, range of estimates are .403- .513 BB. USDA October estimate was .450 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (7 analysts surveyed) average estimate 185.53 MMT , range of estimates are 185.00- 186.13 MMT. USDA October estimate was 185.58 MMT
  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 173.02 MMT, range of estimates are 172.00- 173.78 MMT . USDA October estimate was 173.00 MMT
  • Beans (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 66.33 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0 – 66.53 MMT. USDA October estimate was 66.49 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 192.15 MMT, range of estimates are 189.79- 196.40 MMT. USDA October estimate was 192.59 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 190.77 MMT, range of estimates are 185.60- 194.18 MMT. USDA October estimate was 190.58 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 90.37 MMT, range of estimates are 89.50- 92.55 MMT. USDA October estimate was 90.67 MMT

 

Open outcry option players: – very quiet on the trading floor again today

  • ABN bought 1,000 Jan bean 970 puts and sold 1,000 Jan bean 1040 call sat 4 ¾ debit and bought 700 Jan bean futures at 1000
  • JP Morgan bought 800 Dec soybean 1090 calls at 2 3/8 and sold 64 Jan bean 999 ½
  • RJO sold 500 July bean 1320 calls and bought 500 May bean 1260 calls at 1 ¼ credit
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Dec corn 320 puts sold 1,000 Dec corn 400 calls at a ¼ debit and bought 80 Dec corn futures at 361
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec corn 400 calls at 1 1/8
  • ADM bought 1,000 Dec corn 340 puts at 1 ½
  • ADM sold 1,000 Dec corn 300 puts at ¼
  • Rand bought 1,000 Dec corn 410 calls at ¼
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Dec corn 320 puts and sold 1,000 Dec corn 400 call combos at ¼ debit tied to futures at 361
  • ICAP bought 2,200 Dec corn 320-350 call spreads at 27 ¼ -27 ½
  • FI bought 200 March wheat 500/450 put spreads at 8 1/8
  • Rosenthal sold 500 July wheat 560 straddles at 79
  • Macquarie sold 200 Dec meal 340 puts at 3.50 vs. futures at 369.00
  • ICAP sold 500 Jan meal 350 calls at 18.00
  • ABN sold 400 Jan bean oil 31 puts at 48 tied to futures at 3270

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

Z vol 28 370 str 17 ½-18

F vol 24 ½ 380 str 27 ½-28 ½

G vol 24 ½ 380 str 34-35 ½

H vol 23 ¾ 380 str 39 ¼ -39 ½

K vol 23 ¼ 390 str 49-50

N vol 23 ¾ 400 str 59 ½-61

U vol 24 ¼ 400 str 68 ¼-69 ¼

Z15 vol 22 ¼ 410 str 73 ½-75 ½

 

Beans:

Z vol 27 ¾ 1020 str 46 ¼ -47 ¼

F vol 24 1020 str 72 ½ -73 ½

H vol 22 ½ 1020 str 99-100

X 15 vol 19 100 str 147-150

 

Wheat:

Z vol 24 525 str 21-22

F vol 21 ½ 540 str 34-36

H vol 22 540 str 50-52

K vol 22 540 str 63-65

N vol 22 ¼ 550 str 76-79

 

KC wheat:

Z vol 19 ¼ 580 str 18-21

F vol 18 ¼ 590 str 31-34

H vol 19 ½ 590 str 48-51

K vol 19 ¾ 590 str 61-65

N vol 20 ½ 590 str 74-78

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 20 560 str 18-22

H vol 18 ½ 570 str 44-50

K vol 18 ½ 580 str 53-59

N vol 20 590 str 70-76

 

Meal:

Z vol 39 380 str 24.5-26.5

F vol 31 360 str 31.5-33.5

H vol 26 340 str 37-39

K vol 23 340 str 41.5-43.5

N vol 22 340 str 46-49

 

Bean oil:

Z vol 24.25 33 str 140-160

F vol 22.5 33 str 220-235

H vol 21 33 str 300-320

K vol 20 33.5 str 350-380

N vol 19.5 33.5 str 400-430

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                 CLOSE

DEC         1.71-1.78           1.64-1.66

FZZ          1.74-1.76           1.605-1.64

JAN         1.345-1.365      1.29-1.31

MCH       95-95.5               93-94

MAY        80-81.5              79-81

JLY           79-81                   79-81

AUG        79-82                  77-84

SEP          90-1.04               90-1.04

OCT         90-97                   89-97

DEC5       88-92                   88-90

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ABN sold 20 May crush at 78.75
  • Tenco sold 50 Jan/Dec/Dec at 1.69-1.70
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE