News From The Grain Floor

…it becomes the duty of superior men and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery…

Tom Robbins

 

No USDA announcement this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 6 ¾ at 1476 ½
  • CN up a ½ at 474
  • WN up ¾ at 671 ¼
  • KC WN unchanged at 768 ¼
  • MWN up 3 at 741 ¼
  • SMN up 3.90 at 490.60
  • BON down 9 at 3998
  • RRN down 5 at 1525

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 7,094
  • CN 10,075
  • WN 4,980
  • KC WN 297
  • MWN 71
  • SMN 4,029
  • BON 6,824
  • RRN 146

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat  steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat  2-4 higher
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 higher
  • Bean oil 5-10 lower
  • Rice  4-6 lower

 

Crude and stock market higher. Dollar, silver, and gold lower.

 

Nikkei down .235%

Hang Seng up .008%

Shanghai Index up .83%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 10.3 MB expecting a build of 800,000
  • Gas a build of 135,000 expecting a build of 100,000
  • Distillates a build of 1.4 MB expecting a draw of 300,000

 

China grain closings – front month beans down 22 and back month beans up 53 and 90, corn up 1, meal unchanged, palm oil down 50, and bean oil down 46

 

Malaysian palm oil down 19

 

China sold 5.19% of wheat at today’s auction. They offered 811,079 tons of wheat

 

Hearing Chinese crushers bought a few cargoes of South American beans yesterday.

 

Bloomberg survey said China crushers bought over 600,000 tons of beans last week for September forward shipment

 

China’s April imports – General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat = 373,606 tons up 83.74% from a year ago
  • Barley = 454,173 tons up 129.61% from a year ago
  • Corn = 93,062 tons down 77.82% from a year ago
    • Corn imports from the US = 8,508 down 97.97% from a year ago
    • Corn imports from the Ukraine = 50,300 tons up 201908% from a year ago
  • Rice = 321,732 tons up 6.86% from a year ago
  • Soybean = 6,502,871 tons up 63.58% from a year ago
    • Bean imports from Brazil = 3,949,492 tons up 70.9% from a year ago
    • Bean imports from the US = 2,523,631 tons up 53.09% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed = 544,156 tons up 49.34% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil = 100,311 tons up 46.5% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal = 37,686 tons up 1982% from a year ago
  • Bean oil = 21,995 tons down 27.02% from a year ago
  • Soymeal = 3,561 tons up 198.28% from a year ago
  • Palm oil = 486,557 tons down 17.38% from a year ago
  • DDGs= 613,678 tons up 252% from a year ago

 

China’s Jan – April imports – General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat = 2,216,904 tons up 147.82% from a year ago
  • Barley = 1,437,467 tons up 153.62% from a year ago
  • Corn = 1,271,855 tons down 12.14% from a year ago
    • Corn imports from the US = 868,069 tons down 39.9% from a year ago
    • Corn imports from the Ukraine = 243,787 tons up 978962% from a year ago
  • Rice = 812,659 tons down 18.19% from a year ago
  • Soybean = 21,847,770 tons up 41.25% from a year ago
    • Bean imports from Brazil = 4,994,643 tons up 82.93% from a year ago
    • Bean imports from the US = 16,261,525 tons up 32.6% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed = 1,693,416 tons up 43.21% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil = 374,643 tons down 34.81% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal = 75,810 tons up 1466% from a year ago
  • Bean oil = 295,744 tons up 34.42% from a year ago
  • Soymeal= 12,002 tons up 40.54% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 2,061,170 tons down .74% from a year ago

 

Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation estimated 2014 Ukraine grain crop at 60.0 MMT (including 29.0 MMT of corn , 22.0 MMT of wheat, 8.0 MMT of barley, and 2.0 MMT of rye) vs. 63.0 MMT in 2013 due to political instability in Ukraine.

 

Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation estimated Ukraine’s 2014 wheat crop at 22.0-22.5 MMT unchanged from a year ago

 

Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation estimated Ukraine’s 2014 corn crop at 28.5-29.0 MMT vs. 30.9 MMT in 2013

 

Rusagrotrans estimated Russia’s 2014 grain crop at 95-97 MMT vs. 92.4 MMT in 2013

 

Rusagrotrans estimated Russia’s 2014 grain exports at 27-28 MMT vs. 25.3 MMT in 2013

 

India Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 food grain production at 261.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 264.4 MMT

 

India Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 rice crop at 106.0 MMT

 

Egypt has bought 2.75 MMT of local wheat so far this season, plans to buy 4.4 MMT of local wheat this year.

 

Reuters article –  World Organization for Animal Health said deadly pig virus (PEDv) that has decimated herds in the US and sent prices rocketing is likely to subside before the end of 2014 as the causes are being identified. PEDv has wiped out more than 10% of the US pig population. – Reuters

 

Moving averages

  • CN 100 day is 476 ¾
  • CN 200 day is 473
  • CZ 100 day is 477 ¼
  • CZ 200 day is 479
  • KC WN 50 day is 773 ¾
  • Minneapolis July 50 day is 747 ¼
  • BON 100 day is 4090

 

UN said global warming may help Argentine bean crops for decades – Reuters

 

Drier and warmer weather , with some chance of rains in the forecast for Canadian Prairies through the end of the week

 

Drier and warmer weather in the forecast for US Midwest through the end of the week

 

CWG said there are forecasts for rains in southern Russia the next 6-10 days , rains are needed. Northern Russia is dry the next 10 days

 

22 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Buffalo IA

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,322,977 open, up 4,773
  • Total beans 607,201 open, up 3,237
  • Total  meal 310,132 open, down 1,073
  • Total bean oil 314,332 open, down 737
  • Total wheat 377,077 open, up 419
  • Total KC wheat 146,481 open, up 444

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST . Expecting
    • Crude unchanged
    • Gas unchanged
    • Distillates a draw of 500,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CST
  • China to auction 1.0 MMT of corn from reserves tomorrow.
  • HSBC China Flash May PMI comes out tomorrow
  • Eurozone flash May PMI comes out tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Last trading day for June options is Friday .. Options expire on the close.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s May 1-25th palm oil exports on Monday May 26th
  • Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day holiday. See attachment for trading schedule.
  • Rogers Roll begins Thursday May 29th. Rogers roll runs for 3 days
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE