New From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“We’re not pointing guns at anyone but we’re sure getting a lot of guns pointed at us.”
– Carol Bundy, wife of Nevada rancher

 

USDA announced 330,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for May shipment. Should have results about 10 am CST.

 

Overnight closes (CME)

  • SK down 7 at 1475 ¼
  • CK down a ½ at 500 ¾
  • WK down 4 ¾ at 657 ½
  • KC WK down 4 ¾ at 717 ¾
  • MWK unchanged at 701
  • SMK down .20 at 479.30
  • BOK down 35 at 4215
  • RRK unchanged at 1563.50

 

Overnight volume (CME)

  • SK 11,257
  • CK 9,505
  • WK 8,911
  • KC WK 1,174
  • MWK 159
  • SMK 4,415
  • BOK 7,265
  • RRK 118

 

Opening calls (CME)

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal steady lower
  • Bean oil 30-40 lower
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Dollar and gold higher. Silver, crude, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei down 2.378%

Hang Seng down .791%

Shanghai Index down .177%

 

China’s March CPI came out late last night/early this morning  at +2.4% from a year ago expecting +2.5% and vs. +2.0% in February

 

China’s March PPI came out late last night/ early this morning at -2.3% from a year ago expecting – 2.0% and vs. – 2.0% in February

 

China grain closings – beans down 17, corn down 5, meal down 29, palm oil down 130 , bean oil 102

 

Palm oil up 5.

 

Algeria bought 450,000 tons of optional origin (possibly France) milling wheat for June shipment

 

Reports China has defaulted on 5-15 US and Brazilian bean cargoes .

 

Reports China has canceled or delayed 10-20 South American bean cargoes

 

Reports Chinese crushers are trying to roll  Brazilian bean cargoes for May shipment forward.

 

Report China importers are having problems opening letters of credit

 

Hearing that China may start selling beans from reserves in May

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 wheat crop at 12.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 corn planting area at 3.2 MH

 

USDA attaché in Argentina ‘14/15 corn crop at 22.0 MMT

 

Argentine Ag Min said Argentine farmers have sold 18% of their new crop soybeans vs. 24% a year ago

 

Argentine Ag Min said Argentine farmers have sold 22% of their new crop corn vs. 55% a year ago

 

24 hour general strike in Argentina is over.

 

IMEA said Mato Grosso, Brazil farmers have sold 75% of their bean crop

 

Lanworth estimated Brazilian ‘13/14 bean crop at 87.5 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 87.5 MMT

 

Lanworth estimated Brazilian ‘13/14 corn crop at 71.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 72.0 MMT

 

FOP estimated France 2014 rapeseed crop at 5-5.2 MMT vs. 4.4 MMT in 2013 and vs. the five year average of 5.2 MMT

 

FOP estimated France 2014 rapeseed area at 1.5 MH up 4% from 2013

 

FOP estimated France 2014 sunseed area at 720,000 hectares vs. 770,000 hectares a year ago

 

Rains in the forecast for this weekend in the US Midwest , cooler temps in forecast for next week

 

Some rains in forecast for eastern Southern / Central Plains

 

Rains are needed in western Southern/Central Plains. Only slight chances for rain in forecast

 

Argentina forecast colder temps and light rains , some chances for light freeze in forecast. Warmer and drier forecast for next week

 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in forecast for Brazil. Rains will be beneficial for second corn crop and winter wheat crops but may delay harvest

 

Today is the last day of the index fund roll. They have been rolling long May positions into July all week.

 

May wheat 200 day moving average is 657 ½

 

May bean oil 200 day moving average is 4197

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentina crop progress report

  • Bean harvest is 14% complete vs. 9.5% a week ago and vs. 24% a year ago
  • Average bean yield 32.2 TPH
  • Estimated  bean crop at 54.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said they may adjust their Argentine bean crop estimate in the next few weeks and said they probably will not raise their crop estimate
  • Corn harvest is 16.5% complete vs. 13% a week ago and vs. 28.2% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said they may lower corn crop estimate due to potential crop losses
  • Sunflower harvest is 95.9% complete vs. 85.5% a week ago and vs. 94.9% a year ago
  • Average yield at 16.2 TPH
  • Estimated ‘13/14 sunflower crop at 2.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CK 353,925 open, down 28,990
  • CN 419,810 open, up 26,700
  • Total corn 1,417,224 open, up 12,267
  • SK 185,736 open, down 13,120
  • SN 205,719 open, up 7,753
  • Total beans 651,240 open, up 460
  • SMK 99,910 open, down 8,706
  • SMN 109,109 open, up 8,427
  • Total meal 325,044 open, up 2,135
  • BOK 91,698 open, down 9,791
  • BON 130,356 open, up 11,023
  • Total bean oil 336,186 open, up 4,403
  • WK 109,737 open, down 12,203
  • WN 155,254 open, up 8,102
  • Total wheat 381,047 open, down 397
  • KC WK 36,201 open, down 4,975
  • KC WN 63,981 open, up 2,965
  • Total KC wheat 144,023 open, down 1,946

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST . Expecting to see corn planting progress on this report. Some analysts expecting 3-5% of the corn planting to be complete
  • SGS and Intertek come out on Tuesday with their Malaysian April 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • NOPA March crush report comes out on Tuesday April 15th at 11 am CST
  • July beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, meal , and bean oil goes top step (spot month) on Wednesday April 16th
  • Markets will be closed Friday April 18th for Good Friday holiday

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE