Morning News From The Grain Floor

Bad taste is simply saying the truth before it should be said.

Mel Brooks

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 1 ¾ at 1472 ½
  • CN up 3 ¼ at 502 ¾
  • WN up 14 at 730
  • KC WN up 14 835 ¾
  • MWN up 13 ¼ at 788 ½
  • SMN up 1.20 at 481.30
  • BON up 4 at 4155
  • RRN  down 2.50 at 1546.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 12,050
  • CN 15,174
  • WN 18,424
  • KC WN 1,970
  • MWN 1,095
  • SMN 2,805
  • BON 5,399
  • RRN  5

 

Opening  calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 8-11 higher
  • KC wheat 10-15 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 10-15 higher
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil steady – 10 higher
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Crude, gold and silver lower .

 

Palm oil down 9.

 

Japan markets closed today and tomorrow

 

Hang Seng down 1.3%

Shanghai index down .1%

 

Political tensions in Ukraine continue

 

China grain closings – beans down 25, corn up 5, meal down 57, palm oil down 102, bean oil down 120

 

Saudi Arabia bought 590,000 tons of hard and soft wheat for July – August shipment from EU, North America, South America, and or Australia

 

USDA attaché in Malaysia estimated ‘13/14 palm oil output at 20.0 MMT vs. 19.4 MMT a year ago

 

Stats Canada came out this morning at 730 am CST with their March 31st stocks report  

  • All wheat stocks at 21.25 MMT vs. average estimate 21.5 MMT , range of estimates are 20.0-22.2 MMT and vs. 14.471 MMT in 2013.
  • Durum wheat stocks at 3.90 vs. average estimate 4.2 MMT, range of estimates are 3.8-4.6 MMT and vs. 2.956 MMT in 2013
  • Canola stocks at 9.02 (record high for this time of year) vs.  average estimate 9.0 MMT, range of estimates are 8.2-9.6 MMT and vs. 4.553 MMT in 2013
  • Oat stocks at 2.29 MMT vs. average estimate 2.1 MMT, range of estimates are 1.9-2.2 MMT and vs. 1.429 MMT in 2013
  • Barley at 4.35 MMT vs.  average estimate 4.7 MMT, range of estimates are 4.5-5.0 MMT and vs. 3.044 MMT in 2013.

 

Argentina Ag Min said Argentina farmers have sold 24% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 29% a year ago

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazil has harvested 97% of their bean crop unchanged from the five year average

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazil has harvested 83.4% of their corn crop vs. 78.1% a year ago

 

Good planting weather in Midwest until midweek , showers and thunderstorms return later in the week. 6-10 day forecast cool and wet.

 

US Plains received some light rains this weekend in the west and central areas. East Plains still dry. Cooler temps are in forecast later this week

 

Good harvest weather in Argentina next 5-7 days

 

Favorable weather in China, Russia, and Europe

 

July corn 50 day 495 ½

 

July bean oil 200 day 4198

 

23 KC wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of Salina KS

 

10 new KC wheat receipts were registered Friday afternoon out of Hutchinson Elev 1. KS

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 154 with the date current
    • House ADM stopped 108
  • Meal 19 with the date at 4/07/14
  • KC wheat 135 with the date at 3/26/14
    • House ADM issued 112
  • Wheat 143 with the date at 4/30/14
  • Bean oil 356 with the date at 4/30/14
    • House Bunge stopped 222
  • Rice 34 with the date at 4/25
  • Corn 4 with the date at 2/05/14
  • Oats 20 with the date at 4/28/14

 

Weekly CFTC COT report from Friday. Large spec positions as of April 29th futures and options combined

  • Wheat long 7
  • KC wheat long 14,501
  • Corn long 200,543
  • Beans long 124,393
  • Meal long 44,207
  • Bean oil long 9,365

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,347,067 open, down 4,936
  • Total beans 587,756 open, down 7,532
  • Total meal 307,070 open, down 857
  • Total bean oil 311,705 open, up 3,178
  • Total wheat 355,358 open, down 1,049
  • Total KC wheat 149,240 open, up 1,976

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST expecting corn planting to be 35-40% complete , bean planting expecting 10-12% complete, spring wheat planting 25-30% complete
  • Reports – China may start auctioning beans from reserves starting tomorrow . May auction up to 3.0 MMT .
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • CONAB comes out on Thursday with their Brazilian crop estimate updates
  • USDA report comes out Friday at 11 am CST . Should have report estimates sometime today
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday with their April palm oil data report
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Monday with their May 1-10th palm oil export estimates .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE