From The Grain Floor- An Afternoon Recap 8/06/14

News:

 

I will email out estimates for the USDA report on Aug 12th tomorrow morning . A few highlights are

  • 2014 US corn yield average estimate 170.098 BPA
  • 2014 US corn crop average estimate 14.253 BB
  • 2014 US bean yield average estimate 45.583 BPA
  • 2014 US bean crop average estimate 3.823 BB

 

Lanworth estimates

  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 174.8 BPA vs. previous estimate of 172.8 BPA
  • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.778 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.635 BB
  • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 46.4 BPA vs. previous estimate of 45.2 BPA
  • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 3.806 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.671 BB
  • 2014 US winter wheat crop estimated at 1.399 BB
  • 2014 US HRW wheat crop estimated at 733 MB vs. previous estimate of 762 MB
  • 2014 US SRW wheat crop estimated at 470 MB
  • 2014 US white wheat crop estimated at 197 MB
  • 2014 US other spring wheat estimated at 575 MB
  • 2014 US durum wheat estimated at 65 MB
  • 2014 US all wheat crop estimated at 2.039 BB

 

Putin orders agricultural import bans in sanction retaliation – RTRS

  • RUSSIA’S PUTIN SIGNS DECREE BANNING OR LIMITING IMPORTS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS FROM COUNTRIES WHICH SANCTIONED RUSSIA – INTERFAX
  • RUSSIA’S BAN ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS FROM COUNTRIES WHICH SANCTIONED RUSSIA TO LAST FOR A YEAR – KREMLIN
  • PUTIN ORDERS GOVERNMENT TO COME UP WITH LIST OF GOODS TO BE BANNED FOR IMPORTS – KREMLIN

 

Brazil’s government approved $218 million in corn subsidies for farmers facing low prices for the commodity, according to an official announcement in Brazil’s Federal Register on Wednesday. –Reuters

 

Manitoba Canada winter wheat harvest has begun

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of yesterday Ukraine has harvested 31.2 MMT of grain on 8.8 MH

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 115,094 tons of total oilmeal in July down 43.1% from a month ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 6,635 tons of soymeal in July up  152% from a month ago

 

India’s ‘13/14 bean output is estimated at 10.23 MMT down 4.4% from a year ago

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 7K
  • Corn bought 6K
  • Beans bought 3K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Open outcry option players

  • Rand bought 1,000 Nov beans 1000 puts at 16 3/8 and bought 220 Nov futures at 1074
  • ABN sold 1,000 Nov bean 1060 puts at 37 3/8 -37 ½ and sold 420 Nov futures at 1070
  • Mizuho sold 1,500 Oct bean 1100 calls and sold 1,500 Oct bean 1020 puts at 40-41 ¼
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Nov bean 1050 puts sold 1,000 Nov bean 1000 puts and bought 500 Nov bean 950 puts at 7 ½ debit
  • Macquarie sold 800 May bean 1000 puts at 29 sold 180 May futures at 1082
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Dec corn 350 puts at 9
  • FI bought 2,000 Sept short dated corn 350 puts at 2
  • FI bought 1,000 Dec corn 330 puts and sold 2,000 Dec corn 300 puts at 1 ½ debit
  • Tenco sold 3,000 Dec wheat 480 puts at 2 1/8-2 ¼
  • Tenco bought 1,400 Sept wheat 600 calls at 4
  • GFI bought 3,000 Dec wheat 640 calls and sold 3,000 Dec wheat 550 put combos at even to 1 ½
  • ADM sold 500 Dec meal 320 puts at 8.50
  • ABN bought 400 Dec meal 450 call at 45
  • Mizuho sold 600 Dec bean oil 38 calls at 70
  • FI sold 300 Dec bean oil 36 straddles at 277
  • Rosenthal bought 500 Dec bean oil 39 calls at 50-55
  • Rosenthal sold 500 Sept bean oil 37.5 calls at 10
  • Rosenthal bought 500 Sept bean oil 35 puts at 30

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • ECB meets tomorrow
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their ‘13/14 crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were
    • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 86.27 MMT
    • ‘13/14 total corn crop estimated at 78.20 MMT
    • 2014 wheat crop estimated at 7.40 MMT
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • Wheat 600,000-800,000 tons
    • Corn 900,000 tons -1.2 M tons
    • Beans old crop 100-200,000 tons and new crop 1.0-1.2 M tons
    • Meal old crop 50-150,000 tons and new crop 250,000-450,000 tons
    • Bean oil 0-40,000 tons
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +84 BCF
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins tomorrow and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling their long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into Dec.
  • China’s July trade data report comes out Thursday night/Friday morning.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board July palm oil data report comes out on Monday. Expecting (Reuters survey)
    • July palm oil stocks at 1.64 MMT down 1.3% from June
    • July palm oil output at 1.65 MMT up 4.9% from June
    • July palm oil exports at 1.45 MMT down 2.1% from June

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

Corn

U vol 28 360 str 17-18

V vol 23 ¾ 370 str 26 ½ -27 ½

X vol 23 ½ 370 str 32 ¼ -33 ¼

Z vol 23 370 str 37 ¼-37 ¾

H vol 21 ¾ 390 str 49-50

N vol 21 ¾ 400 str 64 ½-66

Z15 vol 21 ¼ 410 str 78 ½-80

 

Beans

U vol 26 ¼ 1100 str 45-47

V vol 23 ¼ 1080 str 73 ½-75 ½

X vol 21 ½ 1080 str 85-86

F vol 19 ½ 1080 str 104-106

H vol 18 ½ 1100 str 117-120

 

Wheat

U vol 30 ¾ 570 str 29-31

Z vol 24 590 str 60-62

H vol 22 610 str 77-79

K vol 21 620 str 85-89

N vol 20 ½ 620 str 93-97

 

KC wheat

U vol 28 ¼ 660 str 31-33

Z vol 22 ¼ 670 str 63-66

H vol 20 ½ 680 str 80-84

K vol 20 680 str 87-93

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 26 640 str 26-30

Z vol 20 650 str 54-60

H vol 19 670 str 70-77

 

Meal

U vol 29 360 str 17-19

V vol 25 350 str 25.5-27.5

Z vol 23.5 350 str 33.5-35.5

F vol 21.25 350 str 36.5-38.5

H vol 20.25 350 str 39.5-41.5

 

Bean oil

U vol 18.25 36 str 105-120

V vol 17.5 36 str 175-195

Z vol 17.5 36 str 260-275

F vol 17.25 36.5 str 295-320

H vol 17 36.5 str 345-370

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN             CLOSE

AUG          5-15               5-15

SEP            91-94            92-94

OCT           88.5-90        86-88

DEC           85-85.5        84-84.5

JAN           77-77.5         76-77

MCH         73.5-74         73-73.5

MAY         71.5-72.5       70-72

JLY           71.5-72.5       71-72

AUG5       72.5-76          72-73

 

Crush and oil share players

  • ADM bought 120 Dec/Jan crush spreads at 7.5-8 (over the past few weeks ADM has bought over 1,000 Dec/Jan spreads at 7-8)
  • ABN bought 140 Oct/Dec crush spreads at 3
  • RJO bought 100 Dec crush at 84.5
  • Rosenthal sold 50 Dec oil /meal at 34.40%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE