From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 9/24/14

News:

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop at 95.0 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 total Brazilian corn crop at 75.0 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Argentine bean crop at 55.0 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Argentine corn crop at 22.0 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Paraguay bean crop at 8.5 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 total South American bean crop at 164.5 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 154.7 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 total South American corn crop at 101.1 MMT vs. 107.9 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2014 US corn yield at 173.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2014 US bean yield at 46.7 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

 

Russian Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 grain crop at 100.0+ MMT including 56+ MMT of wheat.

 

Russian Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 Russian exportable surplus at 27-30 MMT of grain

 

ODA estimated 2015 EU rapeseed area at 6.31 MH down 5% from 2014

 

Dec corn made a new contract low today at 324 ¾

 

Dec meal made a new contract low today of 307.00

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 3,000
  • Corn bought 4,000
  • Beans bought 2,000
  • Meal sold 1,000
  • Bean oil bought 2,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their Malaysian September 1-25th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US jobless claims report come out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • Wheat 350 -500,000 tons
    • Corn 600 – 900,000 tons
    • Beans 1.5 -2.7 million tons
    • Meal 150- 265,000 tons
    • Bean oil 0-40,000 tons
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +95 BCF

 

Open outcry option players:

  • JP Morgan bought 2,000 Nov bean 1000 calls at 3 5/8 -3 ¾
  • RJO sold 1,000 Jan bean 920 puts and bought 2,000 Jan bean 860 puts at 2 5/8 credit
  • Drax bought 2,500 Jan bean 940/880 put spreads at 18 ¼ -18 3/8 and bought 500 Jan futures at 948
  • Jefferies bought 3,000 Oct corn 340 puts and sold 6,000 Dec corn 315 puts at ½ -3/4 credit
  • ICAP bought 1,200 March corn 360 calls and sold 1,200 Nov corn 340 calls at 6
  • Rosenthal sold 1,000 July corn 350 puts at 22-22 ¼
  • RJO sold 5,000 Dec corn 400-360 put spreads at 38
  • Rosenthal sold 1,000 Dec corn 340 calls at 6 3/8 and bought 1,000 Dec futures at 326
  • Dowd bought 1,500 Dec wheat 500 calls and sold 3,000 Dec wheat 540 calls at 4
  • Rosenthal sold 1,400 March wheat 450-400 put spreads at 7 ¼
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec wheat 500 calls and sold 2,000 Dec wheat 540 calls at 4
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Dec wheat 550 calls at 3 1/8
  • Macquarie bought 500 March meal 310 puts and sold 500 July meal 290 puts at 7.75 debit
  • Rosenthal bought 750 March meal 350 calls at 3.25
  • Rosenthal bought 1,500 Dec meal 280 puts at 2.80-2.85
  • ABN sold 1,300 Dec meal 330 puts at 25.00 tied to futures at 309.00
  • Rosenthal sold 500 March bean oil 35 calls at 85
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec bean oil 34 calls at 55

 

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

V vol 25 ½ 330 str 6-7

X vol 25 330 str 18 ¾-19 ¾

Z vol 23 330 str 24-24 ½

H vol 21 ½ 340 str 37-38

K vol 20 ½ 350 str 43-44

N vol 20 ½ 360 str 50 ¾ -51 ¾

Z15 vol 21 380 str 67-68

 

Beans:

V vol 19 940 str 12 ½-13 ½

X vol 20 ½ 940 str 44-45

Z vol 19 ½ 940 str 58 ½-59 ½

F vol 19 940 str 72 ½-74

H vol 18 5/8 960 str 91-92 ½

 

Wheat:

V vol 24 480 str 7-9

Z vol 24 480 str 36-38

H vol 21 490 str 51-53

K vol 20 ½ 500 str 60-63

N vol 21 510 str 72-75

 

KC Wheat:

V vol 20 560 str 8-10

Z vol 21 560 str 36-39

H vol 18 ½ 570 str 52-56

K vol 18 ¼ 570 str 62-65

N vol 19 560 str 71-76

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 19 ½ 540 str 32-37

H vol 17 ¾ 550 str 46-52

K vol 17 ½ 560 str 56-62

N vol 18 570 str 66-72

 

Meal:

V vol 27.5 320 str 6-8

X vol 23.5 310 str 16-18

Z vol 23.25 310 str 22-23.50

F vol 22 310 str 26.5-28.5

H vol 20.75 300 str 31-33

 

Bean oil:

V vol 22.5 33 str 45-60

X vol 19.75 33 str 145-160

Z vol 19.5 33 str 200-215

F vol 18.5 33 str 240-260

H vol 18 33 str 295-315

 

Crush quotes

OPEN                  CLOSE

OCT        1.155-1.17        1.175-1.19

DEC        98.5-99.5           1.00-1.015

FZZ         91.5-92.5           94-95.5

JAN        88.5-89               90-91,5

MCH      81-82                   82-82.5

MAY      77.5-78               77.5-78

JLY          77-77.5               77.5-78

AUG      75-78                   76-78

SEP        84-91                    84-91

OCT5     82-90                   82-90

 

Crush and oil share players

  • No crush pit players today
  • Rosenthal sold 69 May share at oil/meal at 35.55-35.57%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE