From The Floor- An Afternoon recap 9/17/14

News:

 

Highlights/Headlines from Fed announcement at 1 pm CST today

  • *FED SEES MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE AT 1.375% AT END OF 2015
  • *FED KEEPS `CONSIDERABLE TIME’ PLEDGE FOR LOW RATES POST-QE
  • *FIRST RATE RISE SEEN IN 2015 BY 14 FED OFFICIALS VS 12 IN JUNE
  • FED TAPERS BOND BUYING PROGRAM TO $15B MONTHLY PACE FROM $25B
  • *FED TO USE OVERNIGHT-REVERSE REPO `AS NEEDED’ IN EXIT
  • *FED WILL USE IOER RATE TO MOVE FED FUNDS INTO TARGET RANGE
  • *FED SAYS ECONOMY EXPANDING AT MODERATE PACE, LABOR MKT IMPROVED
  • FOMC Officials See Longer Run Real GDP at 2.0% to 2.3%
  • *FISHER, PLOSSER DISSENT ON FOMC VOTE ON FORWARD GUIDANCE
  • *FED REPEATS HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE POLICY REMAINS APPROPRIATE
  • *FED REPEATS SIGNIFICANT UNDERUTILIZATION IN LABOR MARKETS
  • *FED SEES 2017 INFLATION 1.9%-2.0%, JOBLESS RATE 4.9%-5.3%
  • *FED SEES MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE AT 3.75% AT END OF 2017
  • *FED REPEATS SIGNIFICANT UNDERUTILIZATION IN LABOR MARKETS
  • *FED SAYS INFLATION `RUNNING BELOW’ FOMC’S LONG-RUN GOAL
  • *FED TO END QE PROGRAM AT NEXT MEETING IF OUTLOOK HOLDS
  • *FED TAPERS BOND BUYING PROGRAM TO $15B MONTHLY PACE FROM $25B
  • *FED PARES MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES BUYING TO $5B FROM $10B
  • *FED REDUCES MONTHLY TREASURY BOND PURCHASES TO $10B FROM $15B

 

Lanworth estimates

  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 174.5 BPA vs. previous estimate of 173.7 BPA
  • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.564 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.649 BB
  • 2014 US corn harvested area estimated at 83.471 MA vs. previous estimate of 84.328 MA
  • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 47.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 46.7 BPA
  • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 3.873 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.852 BB
  • 2014 US bean harvested area estimated at 82.449 MA vs. USDA estimate of 84.058 MA
  • US all wheat production estimated at 2.034 BB vs. USDA estimate of 2.030 BB

 

Britain exported 194,224 tons of wheat in July customs data showed

 

Dec KC wheat made a new contract low today of 579

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low today of 561 ½

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 1K
  • Corn sold 2K
  • Beans bought 2K
  • Meal sold 1K
  • Bean oil bought 3K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • SUPARA (Customs Union of Argentine Republic) to hold a 4 day strike starting tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report come out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • Wheat 450 -650,000 tons
    • Corn 550 – 750,000 tons
    • Beans 1.1 -1.4 million tons
    • Meal 100- 275,000 tons
    • Bean oil 0-30,000 tons
  • CONAB to hold a new corn auction tomorrow. They will offer 1.75 MMT of corn.
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +90 BCF
  • Informa comes out on Friday at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US small grains summary (wheat, barley and oat crops)
  • Informa comes out on Friday at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US acreage updates
  • Informa comes out on Friday at 1030 am CST with their 2015 US acreage and production estimates

 

Open outcry option players:

Corn:

ADM bot 1000 H 310 puts

ABN sold 2000 Z 300 puts

RJO sold 2000 Z 350 puts

RJO bot 1300 Z’15 450 calls/360 put strangles

Rand bot 1000 V 335 puts/sold 1000 V 350 calls

ICAP bot 1500 Z 360 calls/sold 1500 Z 325 puts

ICAP bot 1000 Z 380 calls

ABN bot 1000 Z 330-310 put spreads/bot 200 CZ

 

Beans:

JPM bot 2000 X 1040 calls/sold 340 SX

JPM bot 750 V 950 puts/bot 105 SX

ADM sold 1500 X 960 puts/sold 510 SX

ADM bot 1000 X 950 puts

ADM sold 500 F 900 puts

ABN bot 2000 X 1060 calls/sold 220 SX

Man bot 1500 X 1060 calls/sold 165 SX

Drax bot 1500 F 960-900 put spreads/sold 1500 X 950-900 put spreads

Drax bot 1000 X 950 puts

Drax sold 600 F 980 puts/sold 240 SF

Rand bot 1000 X 940 puts/sold 1000 X 1020 calls/bot 480 SX

RJO sold 900 short dated H 980-1020 call spreads

RJO sold 700 F 980 puts/bot 1400 F 920 puts

RJO sold 600 F 980 puts/bot 1200 F 900 puts

RJO bot 500 X 950 puts/bot 140 SX

Rosenthal sold 1000 X 1060 calls

Macquarie bot 500 X 960 puts/bot 160 SX

Macquarie bot 500 X 1000 calls/sold 205 SX

Mizuho sold 500 K 1100 calls/bot 500 K 1200 calls

 

Wheat:

Tenco bot 1000 Z 470 puts

Macquarie sold 500 Z 540 calls

ABN bot 700 WZ 510 calls/sold 700 CZ 350 calls

 

Oil:

New Edge bot 500 F 35-34 put spreads/sold 500 F 35 ½ calls

New Edge bot 300 F 37-34 put spreads/sold 300 F 35 ½ calls

RJO bot 400 F 31 puts

New Edge sold 200 V 32-33 ½ call spreads

FI sold 200 Z 33-36 call spreads/bot 200 Z 31 puts

Macquarie bot 150 V 34 ½ calls

 

Meal:

RJO sold 400 Z 340-350 call spreads

RJO bot 200 Z 360 calls

FCS bot 150 V 340-350 call spreads

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

V vol 22 340 str 9 ½-10 ½

X vol 22 340 str 18 ½-19 ½

Z vol 20 ¾ 340 str 23  ¾ -24 ½

H vol 19 ¾ 350 str 36 -36 ¾

K vol 19 ¾ 360 str 42 ½-43 ½

N vol 20 370 str 50 ½-52 ½

 

Beans:

V vol 17 ¾ 980 str 23-24

X vol 18 980 str 45 ½-46 ½

F vol 17 ¾ 980 str 73-74

H vol 17 ¾ 1000 str 92-94

 

Wheat:

V vol 23 500 str 14-16

Z vol 22 ¼ 500 str 36-38

H vol 20 ½ 520 str 54-56

K vol 20 ¼ 530 str 65-67

N vol 20 ¾ 540 str 77-79

 

KC Wheat:

V vol 20 580 str 14-17

Z vol 20 580 str 38-40

H vol 18 ½ 590 str 56-59

K vol 18 ¼ 590 str 65-69

N vol 18 ¾ 580 str 73-79

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 18 ¼ 560 str 32-36

H vol 17 ½ 600 str 52-56

K vol 17 ½ 610 str 61-67

N vol 17 ½ 620 str 70-75

 

Meal:

V vol 26 340 str 11-13

X vol 23.5 320 str 19.5-21.5

Z vol 22.5 320 str 24.5-26

F vol 21.5 320 str 27.5-29.5

H vol 19 320 str 32-34

 

Bean oil:

V vol 20 33.5 str 80-95

X vol 19.25 33.5 str 160-180

Z vol 18.5 33.5 str 200-220

F vol 18 34 str 240-265

H vol 17.5 34 str 295-325

 

Crush quotes

OPEN              CLOSE

OCT        1.24-1.27       1.24-1.26

DEC        99.5-1.01       99.5-1.005

JAN        86-88              86-88

MCH      78.5-79           79-80

MAY      75.5-77           75-76

JLY          76-77              76-77

AUG       76-79              76-77

SEP         85-90               85-90

OCT5      83-87               83-87

 

Crush and oil share players

  • Tenco sold 50 October crush at 1.27
  • Rosenthal bought 49 May oil/meal at 34.85 -34.90%

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE