From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 9/11/14

News:

 

See link for complete USDA report.

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-09-11-2014.pdf

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out today at +92 BCF , expecting +85 BCF

 

Tunisia seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin durum wheat for Oct-Feb shipment

 

Reports of excellent corn yields in IL and Iowa

  • Reports of Iowa corn yields at 180-240 BPA
  • Reports of Illinois corn yields at 249-255 BPA

 

CNGOIC estimated 2014 China corn crop at 213.8 BB (second largest on record) vs. 218.5 MMT in 2013

 

CNGOIC estimated 2014 China corn imports at 2.7 MMT

 

CNGOIC estimated 2014 China corn consumption at 186.5 MMT up 7.0 MMT from 2013

 

FAO estimated ‘14/15 global cereals output at 2.512 billion tones up 14.0 million tons from previous estimate

 

FAO estimated ‘14/15 global wheat crop at 716.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 707.2 MMT

 

FAO estimated ‘14/15 global cereals ending stocks at 616.0 MMT up 12.0 MMT from previous estimate

 

CIMB analysts said Malaysian palm oil September ending stocks could increase by 15% from August ending stocks of 2.054 MMT

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey India’s August palm oil imports estimated at 835,000 tons up 60% from a year ago

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey India’s August veg oil imports estimated at 1.28 MMT up 68% from a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India are coming out next week with their Indian August export estimates.

 

India’s Weather Service said India’s monsoon rains were 64% above average the past week .

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 6.22 MMT of grain between July 1st – Sept 10th vs. about 4.61 MMT a year ago

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated 2014 Ukraine grain crop at 59.0 MMT

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated 2014 Ukraine wheat crop at 21.4 MMT vs. 21.0 MMT in 2013

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated ‘14/15 Ukraine grain exports at 31-32 MMT

BayWa Ag Germany said they exported 100,000 tons of milling wheat to France over the past 8 weeks.

 

BayWa Ag said it is very unusual for Germany to ship milling wheat to French buyers

 

BayWa estimated Germany’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 26.0 MMT

 

Algeria Ag Min estimated 2014 grain crop at 3.4 MMT vs. 4.9 MMT in 2013

 

Freezing temperatures covered much of the Western Canada province of Alberta early this morning, raising the risk of damage to not fully developed crops.

 

Nov beans made a new contract low today of 969 ½

 

Dec corn made a new contract low today of 335 ¾

 

Dec wheat made a new contract low today of 503

 

Dec KC wheat made a new contract low today of 601

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low today of 586 ¼

 

Dec meal made a new contract low today of 325.10

 

Dec oil did not make a new contract low today. The low of the day was 3155 and the contract low is 3152.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 5K
  • Corn sold 8K
  • Beans sold 10K
  • Meal sold 5K
  • Bean oil sold 3K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • September futures expire tomorrow at noon CST.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • SGS and Intertek Agri Services comes out on Monday with their Sept 1-15th Malaysian palm oil export estimates

 

Open outcry option players:

Corn:

ADM sold 3000 Z 330-350 call spreads

ADM sold 600 Z 350 calls

ADM sold 1100 Z 330 puts

ICAP sold 3500 Z 320 puts/sold 770 CZ

Macquarie bot 1000 X 400 calls

Macquarie bot 1000 Z 390 calls

ABN sold 1000 Z 340 calls/320 put strangles

JPM bot 1200 H 400 calls

JPM bot 500 H 380 calls-330 put strangles/sold 500 H 400 calls-350 put strangles

 

Beans:

Marex bot 7000 X 1000-960 put spreads/sold 3500 X 1060-1020 put spreads

RJO bot 2000 X 1000 puts/sold 2000 X 960 puts

RJO sold 1800 F 980 puts/bot 3600 F 920 puts

RJO sold 1000 X 1060-1020 put spreads

Rosenthal bot 1000 V 1000-1020 call spreads

Bunge sold 1000 N 880 puts

Bunge bot 500 week 2 970 puts

Macquarie bot 1000 X 1000 calls/sold 370 SX

ICAP sold 1000 X 1000-970 put spreads/sold 180 SX

ICAP bot 500 V 950 puts/sold 1000 V 920 puts/bot 500 V 890 puts

Macquarie bot 1000 V 1090 calls

Bache sold 2000 X 950 puts/sold 680 SX

ABN bot 1000 X 1100 calls

Marex bot 800 X 960 puts/sold 800 V 960 puts

RJO sold 1000 F 980 puts/bot 2000 F 900 puts

Drax sold 1000 F 1000 puts/bot 1500 F 960 puts

JPM bot 500 X 1030 calls-950 put strangles/sold 500 X 1080 calls-1000 put strangles

ADM bot 500 V 1020-970 put spreads

 

Wheat:

Mizuho bot 800 X 500 puts/sold 400 X 550 puts

 

Meal:

Rosenthal bot 1000 Z 300 puts

Bache sold 500 Z 340-320 put spreads

RJO sold 400 Z 350-360 call spreads

RJO bot 200 V 350 calls

RJO bot 200 H 300 puts

Rosenthal sold 150 V 345 puts

Rosenthal bot 200 H 360 calls

Rosenthal sold 200 Z 350 puts

Rosenthal bot 200 V 370-350 put spreads

Macquarie sold 300 Z 360 calls

FCS bot 200 Z 360 calls

New Edge bot 250 Z 330 puts/sold 250 H 370 calls-290 put strangles

ABN sold 500 Z 330 calls

 

Oil:

Rosenthal bot 1000 Z 33 calls/sold 500 SMH 360 calls

RJO bot 250 Z 30 puts

RJO bot 200 Z 30 puts/sold 200 Z 34 calls

Tenco bot 200 H 33 puts

Tenco bot 200 H 34 puts

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

V vol 22 ¼ 340 str 12-12 ¾

X vol 22 340 str 20 -20 ¾

Z vol 21 ¼ 340 str 25 ¼ -26

H vol 19 ¾ 350 str 36 ¼ -37 ¼

K vol 19 ½ 360 str 43 ½- 44 ½

N vol 20 370 str 51 ½-52 ½

 

Beans:

V vol 20 ½ 980 str 33-35

X vol 20 ½ 980 str 54-56

Z vol 19 ½ 990 str 68-70

F vol 19 ¼ 980 str 80-83

H vol 19 ¼ 980 str 99-102

K vol 17 ¾ 1000 str 108-112

N vol 17 ½ 1000 str 118-122

 

 

Wheat:

V vol 25 510 str 21-22

Z vol 22 ¾ 510 str 40-42

H vol 21 530 str 58-60

K vol 20 ½ 540 str 67-70

N vol 20 ¾ 550 str 79-82

 

KC Wheat:

V vol 22 ¼ 600 str 22-23

Z vol 20 ¾ 600 str 43-45

H vol 19 ¼ 610 str 61-64

K vol 19 ¼ 620 str 73-76

N vol 19 ¼ 660 str 80-83

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 18 ½ 590 str 36-40

H vol 17 ½ 600 str 52-56

K vol 17 ½ 610 str 61-67

N vol 17 ½ 620 str 70-75

 

Meal:

V vol 26.5 340 str 14.5-16

X vol 23 330 str 21.5-23

Z vol 22.75 330 str 26.5-28

F vol 21 330 str 29.5-31

H vol 19.5 320 str 33.5-35

K vol 18.25 320 str 37.5-40

N vol 18.5 330 str 39-43

 

Bean oil:

V vol 19 31.5 str 95-110

X vol 18.5 32 str 155-180

Z vol 17.75 32 str 190-210

F vol 17.5 32 str 235-260

H vol 17.25 32.5 str 285-310

K vol 17 32.5 str 330-360

N vol 17 33 str 380-415

 

Crush quotes

OPEN             CLOSE

SEP         2.45-2.65       2.20-2.40

OCT        1.16-1.19       1.08-1.10

DEC         96-96.5          91-92

JAN         85-87              81-83.5

MCH       78-79.5          74-76

MAY       75-76.5          72.5-74

JLY           75.5-77          73-74

AUG        74.5-77          72-76

SEP5        82-88             83-90

 

Crush and oil share players

  • ABN sold 50 Dec crush at 98.5
  • ABN sold 20 Oct crush at 115.5
  • RJO bought 200 Jan crush at 82-84.5
  • RJO bought 150 March crush at 77.5
  • Rosenthal sold Jan oil share at 32.70% 66×66
  • FC Stone bought Dec share 40 oil /32 meal at 33.75%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE