From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 9/10/14

News:

 

Egypt FIHC bought 30,000 tons of bean oil and 18,000 tons of sunflower oil for Oct-Nov shipment

 

CNGOIC said China sold 139,291 tons of beans at yesterday’s auction. They offered 341,571 tons

 

Oil World said India exported 2.5 MMT of soymeal between Oct 2013-Aug 2014 vs. 4.0 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World said India exported 1.3 MMT of rapeseed meal between Oct 2013-Aug 2014 vs. 1.0 MMT a year ago

 

Ukraine says Russia withdrawing forces from east, sees boost for peace-Reuters

 

Russian Ag Min estimated 2014 grain crop at 105 MMT vs. previous estimate of 100+ MMT and vs. 2013 grain crop of 92.4 MMT

 

Russian Ag Min said Russia has harvested 83.0 MMT of grain so far this season.

 

Russian Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 grain exports at 30.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 25.3 MMT

 

French Ag Min estimated 2014 wheat crop at 37.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 37.3 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 36.9 MMT

 

French Ag Min estimated 2014 durum wheat crop at 1.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 1.8 MMT in 2013

 

French Ag Min estimated 2014 barley crop at 11.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.7 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 10.3 MMT

 

French Ag Min estimated 2014 rapeseed crop at 5.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.5 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 4.4 MMT

 

France customs data showed France exported 996,496 tons of soft wheat in July up 20% from a year ago

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 2,500
  • Corn bought 2,000
  • Beans bought 2,000
  • Meal sold 1,000
  • Bean oil bought 1,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Tomorrow the CBOT will be observing two moments of silence for the victims of September 11th. The first moment will be at 718 – 719 am CST and the second moment of silence will be at 828-829 am CST. Please refrain from calling the trading floor during these times.
  • Brazil to hold another corn auction tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST.  Expecting
    • Wheat expecting 250,000 – 450,000 tons
    • Corn expecting 450,000 – 650,000 tons
    • Beans expecting 750,000 – 1,000,000 tons
    • Meal expecting 100,000 -225,000 tons
    • Bean oil expecting 0-40,000 tons
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +85 BCF
  • September USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST. See attachment for recap table.

 

USDA September crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for USDA report.

 

Estimates for US 2014 corn and bean production

  • Corn production (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.288 BB , range of estimates are 14.00 -14.649 BB. USDA August estimate was 14.032 BB and final 2013 corn production was 13.925 BB
  • Corn yield (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 170.743 BPA, range of estimates are 168.5 – 174.1 BPA. USDA August estimate was 167.4 BPA and final 2013 corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Bean production (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.883 BB, range of estimates are 3.760-4.035 BB. USDA August estimate was 3.816 BB and final 2013 bean production was 3.289 BB.
  • Bean yield (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 46.293 BB, range of estimates are 45.4-48.0 BPA. USDA August estimate was 45.4 BPA and final 2013 bean yield was 43.3 BPA.

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • Corn (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.191 BB , range of estimates are 1.136-1.231 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.181 BB
  • Beans (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .136 BB, range of estimates are .119 – .142 BB. USDA August estimate was .140 BB

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .667 BB, range of estimates are .625-.716 BB. USDA August estimate was .663 BB.
  • Corn (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.012 BB, range of estimates are 1.811-2.421 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.808 BB
  • Beans (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .453 BB, range of estimates are .353-.495 BB. USDA August estimate was .430 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 183.27 MMT , range of estimates are 180.88 – 184.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 183.66 MMT
  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 170.72 MMT, range of estimates are 163.74-173.00 MMT . USDA August estimate was 171.09 MMT
  • Beans (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 67.22 MMT, range of estimates are 66.5 – 68.23 MMT. USDA August estimate was 67.09 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 193.75 MMT, range of estimates are 189.42-203.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 192.96 MMT
  • Corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 190.34 MMT, range of estimates are 184.60- 202.63 MMT. USDA August estimate was 187.82 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 87.24 MMT, range of estimates are 82.88-100.37 MMT. USDA August estimate was 85.62 MMT

 

Open outcry option players:

  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Jan bean 900 puts and sold 500 Jan bean 980 puts at 11 ¼ credit
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 May bean 1000 puts at 50 ¼ and bought 420 May beans at 1014
  • Marex bought 1,000 Nov bean 980 puts and sold 500 Nov bean 1040 puts at 13 ¼ credit
  • RJO sold 1,000 Jan bean 1000/980 put spreads at 8 ¾ and sold 80 Jan bean futures at 1001
  • ABN sold 1,000 Nov bean 1040 calls at 10 5/8 -11 1/8
  • Dowd Wescott sold 11,000 Dec corn 360-350 put spreads at 6 ¼
  • RJO sold 2,000 Dec corn 360-350 put spreads at 6 1/8
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Nov corn 380 calls at 2 1/8
  • FI bought 1,500 Dec corn 380 calls at 3 7/8
  • FI sold 1,000 March corn 340 calls at 30
  • FI sold 1,000 March corn 450/510 call spreads at 7/8
  • FI bought 1,000 Nov corn 340 puts and sold 1,000 Nov corn 360 calls at 4 ¼ debit bought 720 Dec corn 343 ¾
  • Macquarie bought 1,250 Oct corn 330 puts at 2 1/8 and bought 250 Dec corn futures at 345 ½
  • ICAP sold 500 Dec wheat 530 straddles at 43 ½ -43 ¾
  • ADM sold 2,000 Dec wheat 450-470 put spreads at 2
  • RJO bought 500 week 2 soymeal 360 puts at 10.00
  • RJO bought 400 Oct meal 330 puts and sold 200 Oct meal 355 puts at 5.50 credit tied to futures at 354.20
  • New Edge bought 550 Jan meal 330 puts and sold 550 March meal 300 p /360 c strangles at 25 credit
  • RJO sold 200 Dec bean oil 3550 puts at 370
  • Bunge sold 300 Oct bean oil 35.50-31.50 put spreads at 288

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

V vol 25 345 str 14-15

X vol 23 345 str 21 ¾ -22 ½

Z vol 23 ¼ 345 str 27-27 ½

H vol 20 ¼ 360 str 38-39

K vol 19 ¾ 370 str 45-46 ½

N vol 20 ¼ 370 str 53-54

Z15 vol 20 ¼ 390 str 68-69 ½

 

Beans:

V vol 22 1000 str 37-38 ½

X vol 20 ½ 1000 str 56 ½ -57 ½

F vol 19 ¼ 1000 str 82-83 ½

H vol 19 ¼ 1000 str 103-105

 

Wheat:

V vol 23 ¾ 520 str 20-22

Z vol 22 ¼ 520 str 41-42

H vol 20 7/8 540 str 58-60

K vol 20 ¼ 550 str 69-70

N vol 20 ½ 560 str 81-82

 

KC Wheat:

V vol 22 620 str 23-25

Z vol 20 ½ 620 str 45-47

H vol 19 ½ 620 str 62-64

K vol 19 630 str 75-77

N vol 19 ¼ 620 str 83-86

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 19 600 str 38-42

H vol 18 ¼ 620 str 57-61

K vol 18 ¼ 630 str 66-72

N vol 18 ¼ 630 str 75-84

 

Meal:

V vol 29 350 str 15.5-18.5

X vol 25 340 str 23-25

Z vol 24 340 str 28-29.5

F vol 21 330 str 31.5-33.5

H vol 19.5 330 str 34.5-37.5

 

Bean oil:

V vol 19 3150 str 100-115

X vol 18.5 32 str 160-180

Z vol 17.75 32 str 195-210

F vol 17.5 32 str 235-260

H vol 17.25 32.5 str 285-310

 

Crush quotes

OPEN                    CLOSE

SEP       2.50-2.70           2.30-2.50

OCT      1.265-1.31         1.20-1.22

DEC      99-1.005             98-98.5

JAN       88.5-90.5            87-91

MCH     79.5-81               79-81

MAY     76.5-77.5            76.5-77

JLY         76.5-77.5            76.5-77

AUG      76.5-78               76-77

SEP5      83-87                   83.5-90

 

Crush and oil share players

  • No crush or oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE