From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 9/08/14

News:

 

Weekly US export inspection report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 530,773 tons expecting 550,000-675,000 tons
  • Corn at 1,197,385 tons expecting 825,000 – 950,000 tons
  • Beans at 173,732 tons expecting 25,000-100,000 tons

 

ABARES came out today with their ‘14/15 Australian crop estimates

  • Wheat crop estimated at 24.23 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.59 MMT
  • Canola crop estimated at 3.39 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.47 MMT
  • Cotton crop at 580,000 tons vs. ‘13/14 crop of 890,000 tons

 

Iran bought 200,000 tons of optional origin wheat for 2014 shipment

 

Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Dec shipment

 

Oil World said Brazil’s Jan- July biodiesel production at 1.6 MMT vs. 1.5 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s 2014 biodiesel production at 2.8 MMT vs. 2.0 MMT in 2013

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s 2014 biodiesel exports at 1.8 MMT vs. 1.1 MMT in 2013

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s 2014 biodiesel domestic use at 970,000 tons vs. 885,000 tons a year ago

 

Agroconsult estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 95.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 94.0 MMT in May

 

Agroconsult estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 56.6 MMT

 

Ciara – CEC said Argentine farmers sold $286 million of grain and oilseeds last week down 18% from the previous week.

 

IKAR said Russia exported 4.7 MMT of grain in August (record). Including 4.2 MMT of wheat (also a record)

 

Russia’s Grain Union said Russia is NOT considering a grain export ban if exports get too large. There was talk on Friday that Russia may halt grain exports.

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 5.98 MMT of grain between July 1st – Sept 8th up 44% from a year ago

 

Midday weather update for US 6-10 day warmer Midwest, 11-15 day warmer Plains and Midwest.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 1K
  • Corn  sold 5K
  • Beans sold 4K
  • Meal  sold 2K
  • Bean oil  sold 2K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting
    • Corn good to excellent conditions expecting unchanged from a week ago
    • Bean good to excellent conditions expecting unchanged from a week ago
    • Spring wheat good to excellent conditions expecting down 1-2% from a week ago
    • Spring wheat harvest expecting 41-45% complete.
  • China returns from holiday tomorrow.
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimate updates. CONAB does not estimate Brazil’s ‘14/15 crops until October 9th
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST

 

USDA September crop production and supply and demand report comes out Thursday at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for USDA report.

 

Estimates for US 2014 corn and bean production

  • Corn production (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.288 BB , range of estimates are 14.00 -14.649 BB. USDA August estimate was 14.032 BB and final 2013 corn production was 13.925 BB
  • Corn yield (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 170.743 BPA, range of estimates are 168.5 – 174.1 BPA. USDA August estimate was 167.4 BPA and final 2013 corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Bean production (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.883 BB, range of estimates are 3.760-4.035 BB. USDA August estimate was 3.816 BB and final 2013 bean production was 3.289 BB.
  • Bean yield (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 46.293 BB, range of estimates are 45.4-48.0 BPA. USDA August estimate was 45.4 BPA and final 2013 bean yield was 43.3 BPA.

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • Corn (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.191 BB , range of estimates are 1.136-1.231 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.181 BB
  • Beans (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .136 BB, range of estimates are .119 – .142 BB. USDA August estimate was .140 BB

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate .667 BB, range of estimates are .625-.716 BB. USDA August estimate was .663 BB.
  • Corn (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.012 BB, range of estimates are 1.811-2.421 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.808 BB
  • Beans (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .453 BB, range of estimates are .353-.495 BB. USDA August estimate was .430 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 183.27 MMT , range of estimates are 180.88 – 184.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 183.66 MMT
  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 170.72 MMT, range of estimates are 163.74-173.00 MMT . USDA August estimate was 171.09 MMT
  • Beans (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 67.22 MMT, range of estimates are 66.5 – 68.23 MMT. USDA August estimate was 67.09 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 193.75 MMT, range of estimates are 189.42-203.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 192.96 MMT
  • Corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 190.34 MMT, range of estimates are 184.60- 202.63 MMT. USDA August estimate was 187.82 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 87.24 MMT, range of estimates are 82.88-100.37 MMT. USDA August estimate was 85.62 MMT

 

Open outcry option players:

  • Rosenthal bought 400 July beans 860 puts and sold 1,600 March beans 800 puts at even.
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Nov 2015 bean 1180 calls at 19
  • JP Morgan sold 500 Nov 2015 bean 1200 calls at 17
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 July bean 1180 calls at 15 ¼ -15 ½
  • FI sold 1,000 Nov corn 350 straddles at 25
  • RJO bought 1,000 Dec corn 360/390/420 call flys at 4 ½
  • ADM bought 500 Dec corn 330 puts and sold 1,000 Dec corn 300 puts at 4 debit
  • ABN bought 1,000 Dec corn 400 calls at 2 ½ and sold 100 Dec corn futures at 348 ½
  • JP Morgan sold 1,400 Dec corn 380 calls at 5 1/8 and bought 294 Dec corn futures at 349
  • RJO bought 200 May wheat 540 puts at 28 ½
  • RJO bought 100 Dec meal 360 calls at 8.25
  • RJO sold 200 week 1 soymeal 350 puts at 12.50
  • Rosenthal bought 500 Oct bean oil 34 calls and sold 500 Oct bean oil 30 puts at even

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

V vol 25 ½ 350 str 15 ¼ -16 ¼

X vol 24 ¼ 350 str 23 ¾ -24 ¼

Z vol 23 ¼ 350 str 28 ¾ -29 ¼

H vol 21 ¾ 360 str 41 ½- 42 ½

K vol 21 370 str 48 ½ -49 ½

N vol 21 ½ 380 str 57 ½ -58 ½

 

Beans:

V vol 21 ¾ 1010 str 39 ½-40

X vol 21 1010 str 59 ½-60

Z vol 19 ¾ 1020 str 71 ½-73

F vol 19 1020 str 84-85 ½

H vol 18 ¾ 1020 str 101 ½-103

N vol 17 1040 str 124-126

 

Wheat:

V vol 26 ¼ 530 str 25-26

Z vol 23 ¾ 530 str 45-46

H vol 22 550 str 63-66

K vol 20 ¾ 560 str 72-75

N vol 21 570 str 84-86

 

KC Wheat:

V vol 23 ½ 630 str 26-29

Z vol 21 ¾ 630 str 48-50

H vol 20 640 str 68-71

K vol 19 ½ 640 str 77-80

N vol 19 ¾ 630 str 87-90

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 19 ¾ 610 str 40-44

H vol 18 ¼ 620 str 58-63

K vol 18 ¼ 630 str 66-72

N vol 18 ¼ 640 str 75-84

 

Meal:

V vol 30.5 350 str 18.5-20.5

X vol 25.75 340 str 27-29

Z vol 24 340 str 29-30.5

F vol 21.75 340 str 31-32.50

H vol 20 340 str 35.5-37.5

 

Bean oil:

V vol 18.5 32 str 100-130

X vol 18.25 32 str 160-180

Z vol 17.75 32 str 200-220

F vol 17.5 32.5 str 240-260

H vol 17.25 32.5 str 290-315

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                  CLOSE

SEP       2.35-2.50         2.35-2.50

OCT      1.185-1.21       1.19-1.21

DEC      1.00-1.01          98-99

JAN      90-91.5              88-89.5

MCH     80-81.5            78-80

MAY     75.5-76.5         75-76

AUG     73-77                74.5-75

SEP5     80.5-81             80.5-86

 

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • Rosenthal bought 70×70 Jan oil share at 32.25-32.30%
  • Rosenthal bought 50×50 May oil share at 32.80%
  • No crush players in pit today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE