From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 9/04/14

News:

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out today at 930 am CST at +79 BCF expecting +74 BCF

 

Easing tensions in the Ukraine.

 

Market talk/reports end users are trying to switch US meal purchases to South American soymeal

 

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 93.0 MMT (record) vs. ‘13/14 bean crop of 85.7 MMT (record)

 

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop area at 31.0 MH up 5% from ‘13/14 area.

 

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 total corn crop at 76.84 MMT

 

FC Stone said Brazil’s ‘14/15 corn area will probably fall by 4.7% from last year’s area

 

Malaysia’s government said this morning that they will exempt export tax on crude palm oil for September and October , starting September 1st. The palm oil tax had been set at 4.5% for September vs. 5% in August.

 

Malaysia’s government said tax exemption is expected to increase palm oil exports by 600,000 tons over the next 2 months

 

Malaysia’s government said tax exemption will cut Malaysia’s 2014 palm oil ending stocks to 1.6 MMT

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Wednesday September 10th with their Malaysian August palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting,

  • Palm oil stocks average estimate 1.96 MMT (seven month high) in July palm oil stocks were 1.681 MMT.
  • Palm oil output average estimate is 1.92 MMT in July palm oil output was 1.666 MMT.
  • Palm oil exports average estimate is 1.35 MMT in July palm oil exports were 1.447 MMT

 

Indonesia’s September export tax is set at 9% vs. 10.5% in August.

 

South Korea seeks 70,366 tons of optional origin rice for Dec-Feb shipment

 

Indian Weather Office said Indian monsoon rains were 24% above average in the past week.

 

Saskatchewan weekly crop report said cool , wet weather continues to delay harvest.

 

Nov beans made a new contract low today of 1001 ¼

 

Dec corn made a new contract low today of 343 ¾

 

Dec wheat made a new contract low today of 527 ½

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low today of 605.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 3K
  • Corn sold 10K
  • Beans sold 6K
  • Meal sold 4K
  • Bean oil bot 2K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • US August unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST . Expecting
    • Wheat = 250,000 – 450,000 tons
    • Corn = old crop -100,000 to +100,000 tons; new crop 550,000- 750,000 tons
    • Beans = old crop -150,000 to 0 tons ; new crop 900,000 tons to 1.1 M tons
    • Meal = old crop 0-100,000 tons; new crop 100,000 – 300,000 tons
    • Bean oil = old crop -5,000 to +10,000 tons; new crop 0-15,000 tons
  • Stats Canada will come out tomorrow at 730 am CST with crop stocks report as of July 31, 2014. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 10.7 MMT , range of estimates 9.2 – 12.4 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 10.9 MMT and a year ago all wheat stocks were 5.052 MMT
    • Durum average estimate 1.8 MMT, range of estimates 1.6-2.0 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 2.0 MMT and a year ago durum stocks were 1.152 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 3.0 MMT, range of estimates 2.4-3.8 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 3.0 MMT and a year ago canola stocks were .588 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 1.2 MMT, range of estimates are 1.0-1.4 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 1.325 MMT and a year ago oat stocks were .506 MMT
    • Barley average estimate 2.2 MMT, range of estimates are 1.7-2.5 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 2.25 MMT and barley stocks a year ago were .983 MMT
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • 2014 US corn crop at 13.988 BB and vs. USDA August estimate of 14.032 BB
    • 2014 US corn yield at 168.0 BPA vs. USDA August estimate of 167.4 BPA
    • 2014 US bean crop at 3.7 BB vs. USDA August estimate of 3.816 BB
    • 2014 US bean yield at 44.5 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 45.4 BPA
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.

 

Open outcry option players:

  • ADM bought 800 Nov bean 1160 calls at 1 5/8
  • ABN bought 1,250 Nov bean 960/920 put spreads at 6 7/8 -7 ¾
  • ABN sold 1,000 Nov bean 1030 calls at 18 ¼ -19 ¼
  • ABN sold 2,000 Nov bean 1060/1100 call spreads at 6
  • Rand bought 2,500 Oct bean 1030 calls at 10 ½ and sold 800 Nov futures at 1006 ½ .
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Nov bean 920 puts at 5 7/8 and bought 120 Nov futures at 1005
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Nov bean 980 puts and sold 500 Nov bean 1010 buts at 7 debit
  • ICAP bought 1,400 Nov bean 980 puts and sold 700 Nov bean 1010 puts at 6 ¾ debit
  • Tenco bought 1,500 Oct bean 980 puts at 11 ½-12
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Nov bean 1000 puts at 29-29 ¼ and sold 420 Nov futures at 1003 ½
  • Jefferies sold 5,000 Oct corn 340 puts
  • Jefferies sold 1,500 Dec 2015 corn 400-360 put spreads
  • ABN sold 3,000 March corn 400-470 call spreads
  • ABN bought 1,000 Dec corn 340-370 call spreads
  • ICAP bought 1,500 Dec corn 370 calls and sold 450 Dec corn futures
  • Rosenthal sold 1,000 Dec corn 330 puts
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Dec corn 320 puts and sold 1,000 Dec corn 380 calls
  • GFI sold 2,000 Dec corn 310 puts and sold 2,000 ZX 310 puts
  • Tenco sold 1,000 Dec corn 380 puts and bought 500 May bean 1020 puts
  • ICAP bought 2,000 Dec wheat 540-560 call spreads
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Dec wheat 520 puts and sold 500 March wheat 510 puts
  • Rosenthal bought 400 July wheat 570 calls
  • RJO bought 500 Nov soymeal 370 calls at 3.90
  • ICAP bought 500 Dec meal 400 calls and sold 1,000 Dec meal 350 calls at 21.25 -21.50 debit.
  • Drax bought 1,000 Dec bean oil 34 calls and sold 1,000 Dec bean oil 30 puts
  • FC Stone sold 500 Oct bean oil 35 puts and bought 500 Dec bean oil 32 puts
  • RJO bought 500 Oct bean oil 30 puts and sold 500 Oct bean oil 34 calls

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

V vol 23 ½ 345 str 15 ¾-16 ¾

X vol 23 ¼ 345 str 23 ¾-24 ½

Z vol 22 ½ 345 str 28 ½ -29 ¼

H vol 21 ½ 360 str 41 ½-42 ½

K vol 21 370 str 49-50

N vol 21 ¼ 380 str 57-58 ½

Z15 vol 21 390 str 71-72 ½

 

Beans:

V vol 20 ¾ 1000 str 41-43

X vol 20 ½ 1000 str 60 ½ -62 ½

Z vol 20 1010 str 73-76

F vol 19 ¼ 1020 str 85-88

H vol 19 ¼ 1020 str 105-107

K vol 18 ¼ 1020 str 117-120

N vol 17 ¾ 1040 str 128-131

 

Wheat:

V vol 25 530 str 26-28

Z vol 23 ¾ 530 str 45-47

H vol 21 ¾ 550 str 63-66

K vol 21 560 str 73-76

N vol 21 570 str 84-87

 

KC wheat:

V vol 23 ¾ 620 str 28-30

Z vol 21 ¾ 620 str 49-51

H vol 19 ¼ 630 str 64-68

K vol 19 630 str 75-80

N vol 19 620 str 82-87

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 19 ¾ 610 str 42-46

H vol 17 ¾ 620 str 57-61

K vol 17 ¾ 630 str 66-71

N vol 17 ¾ 640 str 75-84

 

Meal:

V vol 26 350 str 20-21.5

X vol 23 340 str 25-27

Z vol 22.5 340 str 30.5-32.5

F vol 20.5 340 str 32-34

H vol 18.75 330 str 36-39

K vol 18.5 330 str 38.5-42.5

N vol 18.25 330 str 40-43

 

Bean oil:

V vol 18.5 32 str 115-130

X vol 18.5 32 str 170-190

Z vol 18 32 str 205-225

F vol 17.5 32.50 str 245-275

H vol 17.25 32.5 str 300-325

K vol 17 33 str 340-370

N vol 17 33.5 str 385-420

 

Crush quotes:

Open                     Closes

 

SEP       2.40-2.60               2.30-2.40

OCT      1.29-1.31               1.19-1.22

DEC      1.02-1.03                102.5-103.0

JAN      88-90.5                   90-92.5

MCH    79-80.5                   79-80.0

MAY    74-75                       74-75

JLY        74-75                       73.5-74.0

AUG     73-76                      73-75

SEP5     82.5-87                   80-84

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • RJO sold 50 Dec crush at 102
  • RJO sold 50 Jan crush at 90.5
  • RJO sold 50 Jan crush at 88.5
  • No oil share pit players

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE