From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 9/03/14

News:

 

Egypt GASC bought 120,000 tons of wheat for October shipment. 60,000 tons from Romania and 60,000 tons from France.

 

South Korea NOFI passed on tender for 30-55,000 tons of South American, US, Indian or Chinese origin soymeal for Feb shipment due to high prices.

 

Colombia seeking wheat

 

Jordan bought 150,000 tons of barley for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Sinograin (China’s Grain Reserves Corporation) said it has stockpiled three times more wheat so far this year than last year

 

Sinograin said it had purchased 24.34 MMT of wheat from farmers this year.

 

CNGOIC estimated ‘14/15 Chinese wheat imports at 3.0 MMT down 57% from a year ago

 

Traders/analysts said India’s soybean harvest will be delayed by a month this year, pushing back new crop soymeal shipments to Southeast Asia until November- Reuters

 

India’s soybean area estimated at 11.03 MH down 9.4% from a year ago –Reuters

 

India’s soymeal exports are down about a third so far this year –Reuters

 

Oil World estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 sunseed production at 9.7 MMT vs. 10.0 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Oil World estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 sunseed exports at 130,000 tons vs. 140,000 tons in ‘13/14

 

Oil World estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 sunseed crush at 9.3 MMT vs. 9.5 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Oil World estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 sunseed ending stocks at 300,000 tons vs. 400,000 tons in ‘13/14

 

Oil World estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 sunseed production at 11.0 MMT vs. 11.1 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Oil World estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 sunseed exports at 100,000 tons vs. 71,000 tons in ‘13/14

 

Oil World estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 sunseed crush at 10.7 MMT unchanged from ‘13/14 crush

 

Oil World estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 sunseed ending stocks at 200,000 tons unchanged from a year ago

 

Lanworth estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 98.0 MMT (record) vs. 85.7 MMT a year ago

 

Lanworth estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 79.0 MMT vs. 78.6 MMT a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Russia estimated ‘14/15 grain crop at 99.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 94.0 MMT Including

  • 56 MMT of wheat vs. previous estimate of 52.0 MMT
  • 17.5 MMT of barley vs. previous estimate of 16.0 MMT
  • 13.0 MMT of corn
  • 13.0 MMT of other grains and pulses

 

USDA attaché in Russia estimated ‘14/15 grain exports at 28.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 26.0 MMT

 

Nov beans made a new contract low today of 1012 ½

 

Dec corn made a new contract low today of 351 ¼

 

Dec wheat made a new contract low today of 535

 

Dec KC wheat made a new contract low today of 615 ¼

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low today of 608 ¾

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low today of 3175

 

Jon Karmin (our bean option broker) was not here today , therefore there will be no bean option recap from him today.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 6K
  • Corn sold 13K
  • Beans sold 6K
  • Meal sold 4K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • US trade balance – Census export and import data for July comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +74 BCF
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.0 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.45 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 1.0 MB
    • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
    • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
      • 2014 US corn crop at 13.988 BB
      • 2014 US corn yield at 168.0 BPA
      • 2014 US bean crop at 3.7 BB
      • 2014 US bean yield at 44.5 BPA
      • Brazil to hold another corn auction tomorrow.
      • Weekly US export sales report does not come out until Friday at 730 am CST due to US holiday on Monday.

 

Open outcry option players:

  • ICAP sold 1,000 Jan bean 1120 calls at 10 ¾ and bought 200 Jan futures at 1024 ½
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Oct bean 1080 calls and sold 1,000 Nov bean 1040 calls at 16-16 ½ credit
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Nov corn 380 calls at 4 5/8
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Dec corn 430 calls at 1
  • FI sold 1,000 Dec corn 320 puts at 2 ½ -2 5/8
  • ABN sold 2,000 Dec 2015 corn 400-360 put spreads at 18 5/8 -19
  • Division of ABN sold 1,300 March corn 350/370 put spreads at 9 and sold 208 March corn futures at 370
  • ABN bought 2,000 Dec corn 330 puts at 5 3/8 and bought 550 Dec futures at 354 ½
  • FI sold 1,000 Dec corn 340 p / 360 c strangles at 20 3/8
  • Rosenthal sold 3,000 Dec corn 380-370 put spreads at 7 ½
  • Tenco bought 3,000 Dec wheat 520 puts at 11 5/8 -13
  • Drax sold 1,000 Dec wheat 580 calls at 11 tied to futures at 542.
  • Drax sold 500 Dec wheat 570 calls at 13 ½ tied to futures at 542
  • Rosenthal sold 1,000 Dec wheat 500 puts at 8-8 1/8
  • New Edge bought 600 Nov KC wheat 620 puts and sold 600 Dec KC wheat 580p / 670 c strangles at 5 debit
  • Rosenthal sold 300 Dec meal 360 calls at 10.50 tied to futures at 350.00
  • New Edge sold 300 Jan bean oil 34.5-32 put spread at 153
  • New Edge sold 300 Dec bean oil 34-32 put spreads at 125-130
  • New Edge bought 600 Nov bean oil 32.50 puts and sold 600 Dec bean oil 30.50-34.50 strangles at 50 debit
  • New Edge bought 500 Jan bean oil 31.50-34 put spreads and sold 500 Jan bean oil 34.50 calls at 110 debit
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Dec bean oil 31.50 puts and sold 400 Dec bean oil 34 calls at 320 debit and bought 496 Dec bean oil futures at 3210
  • RJO sold 10 Dec crush 1.04 calls at 10
  • RJO bought 3 Dec crush 1.10 calls at 8.5
  • RJO sold 3 Dec crush 1.10 calls at 8.5
  • RJO bought 4 Jan crush 1.00 calls at 10

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

V vol 23 ¼ 350 str 16 ½-17 ½

X vol 22 ¾ 350 str 24-25

Z vol 22 ¼ 350 str 29-29 ¾

H vol 21 ½ 360 str 42-43

K vol 21 ¼ 370 str 49 ½-51

N vol 21 ½ 380 str 57 ½-59

Z15 vol 21 ¼ 400 str 73-74 ½

 

Beans:

V vol 18 ¾ 1020 str 38-40

X vol 19 ½ 1020 str 58 ½-60 ½

Z vol 19 1030 str 72-75

F vol 19 1020 str 85-88

H vol 18 ¾ 1040 str 104-107

K vol 17 ¾ 1040 str 116-119

N vol 17 ½ 1040 str 126-128

 

Wheat:

V vol 25 535 str 26-28

Z vol 23 535 str 45-46

H vol 21 3/8 560 str 64-66

K vol 20 ½ 570 str 73-75

N vol 20 3/8 580 str 83-86

 

KC Wheat:

V vol 23 ½ 620 str 29-31

Z vol 21 620 str 47-50

H vol 19 ¼ 630 str 65-67

K vol 18 ¾ 630 str 74-78

N vol 18 ½ 620 str 80-85

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 19 ¾ 610 str 42-46

H vol 17 ¾ 620 str 57-61

K vol 17 ¾ 630 str 66-71

N vol 17 ¾ 640 str 75-84

 

Meal:

V vol 26 350 str 19-21

X vol 22.5 350 str 25.5-27

Z vol 22.25 350 str 30-32

F vol 20.25 350 str 31.5-33

H vol 18.75 340 str 36.5-38.5

K vol 18.5 340 str 39-42

N vol 18 340 str 41-44

 

Bean oil:

V vol 18.5 32 str 115-135

X vol 18.5 32 str 170-190

Z vol 18 32 str 205-225

F vol 17.5 32 str 245-265

H vol 17.25 32.5 str 295-320

K vol 17 33 str 340-370

N vol 17 33 str 385-420

 

Crush quotes:

 

OPEN              CLOSE

SEP       2.45-2.55        2.30-2.55

OCT      1.405-1.41      1.29-1.31

DEC      1.135-1.14       1.01-1.04

JAN      98-99                 88-89.5

MCH    85-86                 78.5-80

MAY    76-77                  73-75

JLY       74.5-75               72-74

AUG    74-76                  72-75.5

SEP5    83-90                  83-85.5

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • RJO bought 400 October crush at 141-141.50
  • RJO bought 50 May crush at 75
  • FC Stone sold 10 Dec crush at 1.04

 

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE