From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 9/02/14

News:

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for October shipment.

 

Weekly US export inspection report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 773,041 tons expecting 425,000-675,000 tons
  • Corn at 873,195 tons expecting 850,000 – 1.0 M tons
  • Beans at 37,381 tons expecting 50,000-150,000 tons

 

Some traders/analysts talking about the rains this week in US and how they may delay corn and early bean harvest.

 

China sold 132,135 tons of beans at this week’s auction they offered 337,539 tons

 

China sold 140,376 tons of wheat at today’s auction , they offered 303,680 tons of wheat.

 

China poultry farm hit in new outbreak of H5N6 bird flu. Nearly 18,000 geese died on a poultry farm in northeast China last month. – China Ag Min

 

CWG estimated US 2014 soybean yield at 46.9 BPA vs. previous estimate of 46.1 BPA

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2014 US corn yield at 170.0 BPA unchanged from his previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2014 US bean yield at 45.5 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian bean area at 31.0 MH up 4% from a year ago .

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso’s ‘14/15 bean area at 8.8 MH up 1.5% from previous estimate and vs. ‘13/14 bean area of 8.615 MH

 

Brazil August exports – Trade Ministry

  • Beans = 4.12 MMT vs. 6.02 MMT in July and vs. 5.38 MMT in Aug 2013
  • Soymeal = 1.64 MMT vs. 1.25 MMT in July and vs. 1.25 MMT in Aug 2013
  • Bean oil = 138,100 tons vs. 131,119 tons in July and vs. 92,800 tons in Aug 2013
  • Corn = 2,457,800 tons vs. 591,700 tons in July and vs. 3,049,100 tons in Aug 2013
  • Ethanol = 78.40 million liters vs. 90.70 million in July and vs. 485.70 million in Aug 2013

 

Argentina farmers and commodity traders said Argentina could increase soybean, corn, and wheat production by as much as a fifth if the president elected next year scraps export quotas, eases taxes and reverses other policies that have slowed  investment. – Reuters

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 5.01 MMT of grain between July – Aug vs. 3.3 MMT a year ago. Including 2.75 MMT of wheat, 1.89 MMT of barley and 377,000 tons of corn

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Sept 1st Ukraine has harvested 35.6 MMT of grain on 9.8 MH (66% of total area).

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 740,200 tons of grain between July – Aug vs. 970,200 tons a year ago

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin feed barley for Jan-Feb shipment

 

European model overnight said there was a threat of frost in the Midwest by mid-September , but GFS model said there was no threat of an early frost.

 

CWB said rains in Western Canada may delay harvest.

 

CWB estimated 10-15% of Western Canada’s grain crop has been harvested vs. average of 20-25% harvested.

 

Dec meal closed above the 50 day moving average of 354.80. Dec meal settled at 360.00

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 3K
  • Corn sold 2K
  • Beans bought 6K
  • Meal bought 4K
  • Bean oil bought 1K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • EIA June ethanol and biodiesel monthly data report should come out sometime today.
  • FC Stone comes out today about 3 pm CST with their 2014 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were

o   2014 US corn crop at 14.455 BB

o   2014 US corn yield at 172.4 BPA

o   2014 US bean crop at 3.865 BB

o   2014 US bean yield at 46.0 BPA

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting

o   Corn good to excellent conditions expecting unchanged from a week ago at 73% vs. 5 year average of 54% good to excellent

o   Bean good to excellent conditions expecting unchanged from a week ago at 70% vs. 5 year average of 55% good to excellent conditions

o   Spring wheat good to excellent conditions expecting down 1% from a week ago at 65%

o   Spring wheat harvest expecting 40% complete.

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Informa comes out on Thursday with their 2014 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were

o   2014 US corn crop at 13.988 BB

o   2014 US corn yield at 168.0 BPA

o   2014 US bean crop at 3.7 BB

o   2014 US bean yield at 44.5 BPA

  • FSA acreage certification stats comes out on September 15th.

 

Open outcry option players:

  • RJO sold 1,600 Nov bean 1000 put / sold 1,600 Nov bean 1060 call strangles at 34 ½
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Nov bean 1020/970 put spreads at 14 7/8 and bought 220 Nov bean futures at 1032
  • ADM bought 1,000 Oct bean 1050 calls at 13-13 ½
  • FI sold 5,000 Dec corn 340/320 put spreads at 3-3 1/8
  • FI sold 2,000 Dec corn 360/320 put spreads at 9 3/8 -9 ½
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Dec corn 370 straddles at 29 ½
  • Drax sold 1,000 October wheat 590/630/670 call flys at 2 ½ credit.
  • ICAP bought 500 Dec wheat 600 calls at 9 ¼
  • ABN sold 500 Oct wheat 550 puts at 14-14 3/8 tied to Dec futures at 551.
  • Drax bought 500 Oct meal 350 puts at 4.25 and sold Oct futures at 365.00
  • Rosenthal bought 1,500 Dec meal 360 calls and sold 1,500 Oct meal 360 calls at 1.00-1.20 credit
  • ABN bought 500 May meal 320 puts sold 500 May meal 370 calls at 2.25 credit
  • JP Morgan bought 400 Oct bean oil 32 puts at 45
  • JP Morgan bought 800 Dec bean oil 33 calls at 82-88
  • RJO bought 13 Dec crush 96 puts at 5.5

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

V vol 21 ¾ 365 str 15 ¾-16 ½

X vol 21 ½ 365 str 23 ½-24 ½

Z vol 21 365 str 28 ¼-29

H vol 20 ½ 380 str 42-42 ¾

K vol 20 ¼ 380 str 48 ¾-49 ¾

N vol 20 ¾ 390 str 58-59

Z15 vol 21 410 str 58-59

 

Beans:

V vol 18 ½ 1030 str 39-40

X vol 19 1030 str 58 ½-59 ½

F vol 18 ¼ 1040 str 84 ½-86

H vol 18 ¼ 1040 str 104-106

K vol 17 ½ 1060 str 116-119

N vol 17 1060 str 125-129

 

Wheat:

V vol 25 550 str 28-29

Z vol 23 550 str 47-48

H vol 21 670 str 65-67

K vol 20 ½ 580 str 74-76

N vol 20 590 str 83-87

 

KC Wheat:

V vol 23 630 str 29-31

Z vol 21 630 str 49-51

H vol 19 ½ 640 str 66-69

K vol 18 ¾ 650 str 75-78

N vol 18 ½ 640 str 83-87

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 19 ¾ 620 str 43-47

H vol 17 ¾ 630 str 58-62

K vol 18 640 str 66-74

 

Meal:

V vol 26 370 str 19.5-21

X vol 22.75 350 str 25-26

Z vol 23.25 350 str 29-31

F vol 20.25 350 str 31.5-33.5

H vol 19 340 str 35-38

K vol 18.5 340 str 38-42

N vol 18 340 str 41-44

 

Bean oil:

V vol 18 32 str 115-130

X vol 18 32 str 170-190

Z vol 17.5 32 str 205-220

F vol 17.25 32.5 str 240-270

H vol 17 str 32.5 290-320

K vol 17 33 str 340-360

N vol 17 33 str 380-420

 

Crush quotes:

 

OPEN              CLOSE

SEP          2.25-2.35        2.35-2.50

OCT         1.27-1.29        1.36-1.38

DEC         1.00-1.005      1.12-1.13

JAN         87.5-89            98-1.00

MCH      78-78.5              86-87

MAY       73-74.5             76-77

JLY           72-73                74-75

AUG       72.5-77             74-76

SEP5       82.5-89             84-89

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • RJO sold 60 March crush at 81
  • FC Stone bought 100 March crush at 83.50
  • ABN bought Dec 2015 oil share 180×180 at 33.00%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE