From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 8/27/14

News:

 

Hearing China was eyeing South American soybean cargoes for April shipment 

Argentina Ag Min – Farmer ‘13/14 crop selling as of August 20th

  • Wheat = 67.53% of crop sold vs. 99.12% a year ago
  • Corn = 63.72% of crop sold vs. 73.84% a year ago
  • Beans = 55.49% of crop sold vs. 63.77% a year ago

 

Cordonnier’s estimates

  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 170.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 169.0 BPA
  • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 45.5 BPA vs. previous estimate of 45.0 BPA

 

IMEA said Mato Grosso farmers have sold 8% of their ‘14/15 bean crop vs. 32% a year ago

 

IMEA said Mato Grosso farmers will start planting ‘14/15 bean crop on Sept 15th

 

CEC South Africa 2014 crop estimates

  • Corn crop estimated at 14.307 MMT (highest in 30 years) vs. previous estimate of 14.017 MMT . Based on a Reuters survey expecting 14.031 MMT
  • Wheat crop estimated at 1.78 MMT vs. 2013 crop of 1.87 MMT

 

Russian Grain Union Russian estimates

  • ‘14/15 grain crop estimated at 104.0 MMT vs. official government estimate of 100.0 MMT and said if weather remains favorable grain crop could beat record crop of 108.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 wheat crop estimated at 60.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 grain exports estimated at 30.0 MMT (record)
  • ‘141/5 wheat exports estimated at 22.0+ MMT
  • August grain exports estimated at 4.0 MMT vs. 3.0 MMT in July
  • Said Crimea cannot export grain to global markets due to legal issues , Russia’s government will buy part of Crimea’s crop for reserves

 

Egypt FIHC bought 32,000 tons of bean oil for Sept – Oct shipment. 7,000 tons of local bean oil and 25,000 tons of imported bean oil from Glencore

 

Philippines may retender to buy 500,000 tons of rice in a government to government deal.

 

Japan seeks 1,000 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Dec shipment

 

Ukraine wheat harvest is 99% complete , harvested 24.4 MMT of wheat

 

Reports that there is no end in sight to the fighting between Ukraine and pro – Russian forces

 

Algeria said they will reject mixed origin what cargoes after France imported Lithuanian and British wheat for blending

 

Concerns continue about the quality of the European wheat crop

 

Germany’s farmers are unlikely to suffer significant damage from Russian sanctions restricting food imports from western nations in retaliation for the West’s response to Ukraine crisis – Reuters

 

Some reports of cool weather in Western Canada , Reuters article reads “frost could halt growth before plants mature”

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Corn  sold 1K
  • Beans sold 2K
  • Meal bought 1K
  • Bean oil  sold 3K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST . Expecting
    • Wheat – 300-500,000 tons
    • Corn – old crop -100,000 to + 100,000 tons and new crop 450-750,000 tons
    • Beans – old crop – 150,000 tons to 0 and new crop 750,000 – 1.1 M tons
    • Meal – old crop 25,000-100,000 and new crop 100-200,000 tons
    • Bean oil – 10-40,000 tons
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +80 BCF
  • Tomorrow is position day for September futures . Traders should be out of long positions or risk delivery. As of yesterday afternoon
    • There were 144 wheat receipts registered
    • There were 7 corn receipts registered
    • There were 0 bean receipts registered
    • There were 0 meal receipts registered
    • There were 5,776 bean oil receipts registered
    • There were 0 rice receipts registered
    • There were 49 KC wheat receipts registered
  • First notice day for Sept is Friday . Early expectations for deliveries Thursday night are
    • 0 beans
    • 0 meal
    • 0 corn
    • 0-100 Chicago wheat
    • 0- 50 KC wheat
    • 100-500 Minneapolis wheat
    • 200-2,000 bean oil
  • ABARES to estimated Australian crops on September 8th

 

Open outcry option players:

  • ADM bought 1,300 Jan beans 1160 calls at 2 3/8 -2 ½
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Nov 2015 bean 1300 calls at 19 ½ and sold 100 Nov 2015 bean futures at 1044
  • ABN bought 1,000 Nov bean 960 puts sold 1,000 Nov bean 1100 calls at 4-4 ¼ debit
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Nov bean 1000 puts and sold 2,000 Nov bean 950 puts at 3 ¾ debit
  • ADM bought 1,000 Nov bean 1140 calls at 3
  • Drax bought 2,700 Jan bean 1000 puts and sold 1,800 Nov bean 1060 puts at 6 ¾ debit , sold 1,188 Nov bean futures at 1022 and bought 1,045 Jan beans at 1030
  • ABN bought 1,000 Nov bean 1010/960 put spreads at 15 ¾ – 15 7/8 and bought 200 Nov futures at 1022 ¼
  • ABN bought 1,000 Dec corn 330-320 put spreads at 1 3/8 and bought 60 Dec corn futures at 363
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 340-320 put spreads at 3 ½
  • RJO bought 1,500 Dec corn 350 puts at 8-8 ½
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 May corn 400 puts at 33-33 ¼
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Oct wheat 600 calls at 4
  • JP Morgan sold 400 Dec wheat 560 straddles at 50 tied to futures at 556 , 6 delta
  • ICAP bought  400 Dec wheat 560 straddles at 50 tied to futures at 556 , 6 delta
  • FI bought 500 Oct wheat 620 calls at 2 1/8 tied to futures at 558
  • Rand bought 1,500 Dec meal 330 puts and sold 500 Dec meal 370 puts (1×3) at 4.25 credit, tied to futures at 342.00
  • JP Morgan bought 2,100 Dec meal 300 puts at 2.45-2.60
  • JP Morgan sold 500 Jan meal 350 calls at 12.00 tied to futures at 341.00
  • Rosenthal bought 200 Dec bean oil 33.5-35.0 call spreads and sold 200 Dec bean oil 32 puts at 20 credit

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

V vol 21 365 str 17-17 3/7

X vol 20 ¾ 365 str 23 ½ -24 ½

Z vol 20 ¼ 365 str 28 ¼ -29

H vol 19 ¾ 380 str 40 ½-41 ½

K vol 19 ½ 390 str 48 -49 ½

N vol 20 390 str 56-57

Z15 vol 20 410 str 71 ½-72 ½

 

Beans:

V vol 18 ½ 1020 str 43-44 ½

X vol 19 ¾ 1020 str 65-66

F vol 18 ½ 1040 str 88-89 ½

H vol 18 1040 str 104-106

 

Wheat:

V vol 24 560 str 30-32

Z vol 23 560 str 49-51

H vol 21 ½ 580 str 68-70

K vol 20 ¾ 590 str 77-80

N vol 20 ¾ 600 str 88-91

 

KC Wheat:

V vol 22 ¾ 640 str 33-35

Z vol 21 1/8 640 str 51-54

H vol 19 ¼ 650 str 67-71

K vol 19 650 str 77-82

N vol 19 640 str 86-90

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 20 630 str 46-50

H vol 18 650 str 59-64

 

Meal:

V vol 26 360 str 19-21

X vol 23.5 350 str 25.5-26.0

Z vol 22.75 340 str 29.5-31

F vol 20.5 340 str 31-33

H vol 19.5 340 str 35.50 -38

 

Bean oil:

V vol 17.75 32.5 str 125-140

X vol 17.5 33 str 175-190

Z vol 17.25 33 str 205-225

F vol 17 33 str 240-270

H vol 16.75 33.5 str 290-330

 

Crush quotes

OPEN                CLOSE

SEP         1.54-1.60           1.85-1.95

OCT        1.145-1.165      1.20-1.25

DEC        92.5-93               94-94.5

JAN        80.5-82               80-82

MCH      74.5-75               74.5-75

MAY      72-73                   71.5-72.5

JLY          72-73                   72-73.5

AUG       71-77                  72-74

SEP5       81-86                   83-85

 

No crush or oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE