From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 8/26/14

News:

 

Farm Futures 2015 US planting survey

  • Soybean acres estimated at 86.6 MA up 2.1%
  • Corn acres estimated at 90.5 MA down 1.2%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report came out today at 330 pm CST

  • Crude a draw of 1.3 MB as expected
  • Gas a draw of 3.2 MB expecting a draw of 1.1 MB
  • Distillates a build of 2.4 MB expecting a draw of 443,000 barrels

 

I heard today that China washed out two Brazilian bean cargoes due to problems with letters of credit.

 

An analyst wrote this in his morning report  “Report that Sunrise Group, one of the Chinese shadow bankers, having trouble opening LCs for bean cargoes. They may have resold some Brazil bean cargoes for Aug/Sep as a result. Bank of China expected to slash their credit line.”

 

Egypt GASC bought 175,000 tons of wheat for Sept shipment. 115,000 tons of Russian origin wheat and 60,000 tons of Romanian origin wheat.

 

Decatur IL spot soybean basis bid falls to 200 cents over the CBOT Nov futures from 375 cents over late Monday –Reuters

 

Union workers as US West Coast grain terminals approve contract –Reuters

 

Ship in German port loading about 50,000 tons of wheat for shipment to Iran.

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has harvested 24.4 MMT of wheat or 99% of total area

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine 2015 winter wheat area at 6.2 MH vs. 6.1 MH in 2014

 

MARS estimated 2014 EU28 corn yield at 7.53 TPH vs. previous estimate of 7.23 TPH up 11.8% from a year ago and up 11.1% from the five year average

 

MARS estimated 2014 EU 28 soft wheat yield at 5.85 TPH vs. previous estimate of 5.80 TPH and up 5% from 2013 and up .7% from 5 year average

 

SAGIS said South Africa exported 837,689 tons of corn at the end of July

 

Iraq seeks 30,000 tons of optional origin rice

 

Southern beans in the Delta states are starting to hit the market.

 

Reports of better than expected / excellent bean and corn yields in the US.

 

Some weather concerns in Western Canada as temps dipped to just above freezing overnight

 

Nov beans made a new contract low again today of 1019 ¾

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bot 1K
  • Corn sold 4K
  • Beans sold 2K
  • Meal  sold 1K
  • Bean oil bought 1K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • CEC comes out tomorrow with their South Africa crop estimates.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude a draw of 1.3 MB

o   Gas a draw of 1.1 MB

o   Distillates a draw of 400,000

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST

 

Open outcry option players:

  • Bunge bought 1,500 Nov bean 1100 calls and sold 1,500 July bean 1100 calls at 32-32 ½ credit
  • JP Morgan bought 3,125 Nov bean 960 puts sold 2,500 Nov bean 1040 puts at 111 credit and sold 725 Nov futures at 1022
  • Drax bought 1,500 Jan bean 1000 puts sold 1,000 Nov bean 1060 puts at 7 tied to futures – sold 660 Nov beans at 1022 and bought 570 Jan beans at 1029
  • RJO sold 2,800 Dec corn 390/380 put spreads at 7 ½
  • ICAP bought 5,000 Dec corn 400 calls at 3 1/8-3 ½
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March corn 420 call sold 1,000 March corn 390 call and sold 1,000 March 340 puts at 14 credit
  • Dowd Wescott bought 5,000 Dec corn 330 puts and sold 10,000 Dec corn 320 puts at a ½ -5 /8 credit
  • JP Morgan bought 600 Oct wheat 600 calls at 3
  • ADM bought 1,100 Dec wheat 470 puts at 2
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Dec meal 330 puts at 9.50
  • Macquarie bought 500 Aug 2015  meal 360 calls sold 500 Aug meal 330 puts at 300 credit tied to futures at 340
  • RJO bought 400 March meal 330 puts sold 400 March meal 380 calls at 9.50 credit tied to futures at 337.30
  • FI sold 500 Dec bean oil 33 straddles at 215
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Dec bean oil 34 calls at 74
  • Jefferies sold 2,000 Dec bean oil 32.5-33.5 put spreads at 50
  • RJO bought 22 Dec crush 110 calls at 5
  • Kottke sold 10 Dec crush 100 calls at 6.5

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

V vol 20 365 str 16 ½-17 ½

X vol 20 365 str 23-24

Z vol 19 ¾ 365 str 27 ¼-28 ¼

H vol 19 ¼ 380 str 40-40 ½

K vol 19 ½ 390 str 48 ½-49 ½

N vol 19 ¾ 390 str 55 ½-57

Z15 vol 20 410 str 71 ½-72 ½

 

Beans:

V vol 20 1030 str 47 ½-48 ½

X vol 20 5/8 1030 str 68-69

F vol 19 1040 str 90-91 ½

H vol 18 ½ 1040 str 105-107

K vol 17 ¾ 1040 str 117-121

N vol 17 ¼ 1060 str 127-131

 

Wheat:

V vol 24 ½ 560 str 31-33

Z vol 23 ½ 560 str 50-52

H vol 21 ½ 580 str 68-71

K vol 21 590 str 78-81

N vol 20 ¾ 600 str 87-91

 

KC Wheat:

V vol 23 ½ 630 str 34-36

Z vol 21 ½ 630 str 51-54

H vol 19 ½ 640 str 67-71

K vol 19 ¼ 640 str 77-82

N vol 19 ¼ 640 str 86-90

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 20 620 str 46-50

H vol 18 640 str 59-64

 

Meal:

V vol 26 350 str 21.5-23

X vol 23 340 str 24.5-26.5

Z vol 22 340 str 29-31

F vol 20.5 340 str 30.5-32.5

H vol 19.5 340 str 36-38

K vol 18 340 str 38.5-40.5

N vol 18 340 str 41-44

Q vol 17.5 340 str 45-48

U vol 17.25 340 str 49-52

Z15 vol 17 340 str 51-55

 

Bean oil:

V vol 17.5 33 str 130-145

X vol 17.5 33 str 180-200

Z vol 17 33 str 210-225

F vol 17 33.5 str 245-275

H vol 16.75 340 str 360-380

K vol 16.75 33.5 str 335-380

N vol 16.75 34 str 390-425

U vol 16.75 34 str 415-470

Z15 vol 16.5 34 str 475-525

 

Crush quotes

OPEN               CLOSE

SEP         1.18-1.24        1.40-1.48

OCT        1.06-1.075      1.08-1.09

DEC        89-89.5            92-93

JAN        79-80               79-81.5

MCH      73-74               74-75

MAY       71-72               72.5-73

JLY           71-72               72-73

AUG       70.5-76            71-75

SEP5       80.5-86            81-86

 

Crush and oil share players

  • RJO sold 200 Dec crush at 92

·         No oil share features today .