From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 8/25/14

News:

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for Sept shipment. Should have results by tomorrow morning.

 

Weekly US export inspections came out today

  • Wheat at 558,113 tons expecting 425-550,000 tons
  • Corn at 1,091,301 tons expecting 825-975,000 tons
  • Beans at 145,161 tons expecting 25-100,000 tons

 

Oil World estimates

  • ‘14/15 global oilseed output estimated at 507.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 505.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 oil seed output of 489.1 MMT . Including

o   306.7 MMT of beans vs. previous estimate of 305.6 MMT and vs. 284.6 MMT in ‘13/14

o   68.7 MMT of rapeseed vs. previous estimate of 68.1 MMT and vs. 69.7 MMT in ‘13/14

o   41.6 MMT of sunseed vs. previous estimate of 40.4 MMT and vs. 42.1 MMT in ‘13/14

o   90.7 MMT of other oilseeds vs. previous estimate of 91.2 MMT and vs. 92.8 MMT in ‘13/14

  • ‘14/15 total global oilseed use estimated at 491.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 488.9 MMT and vs. 474.0 MMT in ‘13/14 . Including

o   290.2 MMT of soybeans vs. previous estimate of 288.1 MMT and vs. 274.4 MMT a year ago

o   69.0 MMT of rapeseed unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 67.1 MMT a year ago

o   41.6 MMT of sunseed vs. 40.6 MMT previous and vs. 42.1 MMT a year ago

o   90.7 MMT of other oilseeds vs. previous estimate of 91.2 MMT and vs. 92.8 MMT a year ago

  • ‘14/15 total global oilseed ending stocks estimated at 99.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 102.0 MMT and vs. 85.9 MMT in ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 global soybean ending stocks estimated at 86.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of  88.4 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 ending stocks of 69.9 MMT
  • ‘14/15 global production of 8 major oil meals estimated at 294.4 MMT vs. 283.1 MMT in ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 global 8 major oil meals exports estimated at 89.4 MMT vs. 85.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 global 8 major oil meal ending stocks estimated at 10.2 MMT vs. 9.7 MMT in ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 global soymeal production estimated at 199.2 MMT vs. 187.4 MMT in ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 global meal exports estimated at 65.0 MMT vs. 60.8 MMT in ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 global soymeal ending stocks estimated at 8.3 MMT vs. 7.7 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Turkey bought 9,000 sunseed from Black Sea region for Oct-Dec shipment

 

South Korea bought 9,434 tons of Australian origin rice for Dec shipment

 

Hearing Argentina July bean crush was 3.908 MMT up 7.3% from a year ago

 

Hearing Argentina Jan – July bean crush at 22.237 MMT up 12.7% from year ago

 

Hearing Argentina sunseed July crush at 133,033 tons down 24.06% from a year ago

 

Hearing Argentina sunseed Jan-July crush at 1.527 MMT down 19.5% from year ago

 

Nov beans made a new contract low of 1026

 

Dec oil made a new contract low of 3245

 

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn sold 3K
  • Beans sold 5K
  • Meal  sold 4K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST

 

Open outcry option players:

  • RJO sold 3,000 Jan bean 980 puts and sold 2,000 Nov 1040 puts at 9 ½ -11 credit
  • FI sold 1,000 Nov bean 1060/1000 put spreads at 29
  • ABN sold 2,500 Nov bean 1060 puts at 47 and sold 1,500 Nov bean futures at 1036
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Dec corn 360p/380c strangles at 20 ¾ 20 5/8
  • JP bought 1,200 Oct wheat 600 calls at 5
  • JP Morgan bought 300 Dec meal 400 calls at 1.30-1.60
  • New Edge bought 250 Nov bean oil 33 puts sold 250 March bean oil 32p/36c strangles at 50 credit

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

V vol 21 370 str 17 ½-18 ½

X vol 20 ½ 370 str 24 ¼-25 ¼

X vol 20 370 str 24 ¼ -29 ¼

Z vol 20 370 str 28 ½-29 ½

H vol 19 ½ 380 str 41-42

 

Beans:

V vol 20 1030 str 49-50

X vol 20 ¼ 1030 str 67-68

F vol 18 ¾ 1040 str 88-89 ½

H vol 18 ¼ 1040 str 104-106

 

Wheat:

V vol 24 ¾ 560 str 32-34

Z vol 23 ¼ 560 str 50-52

H vol 21 ½ 580 str 68-71

K vol 21 5/8 590 str 78-81

 

KC Wheat:

V vol 23 ½ 630 str 34-36

Z vol 21 ½ 630 str 51-55

H vol 20 640 str 69-73

K vol 19 ¼ 640 str 78-82

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 20 630 str 46-51

H vol 18 ½ 640 str 62-67

 

Meal:

V vol 22.25 350 str 19-21.5

X vol 23.75 340 str 25-28

Z vol 21 340 str 29-30

F vol 19.75 340 str 31-34

 

Bean oil:

V vol 18 32.5 str 135-150

X vol 18 32.5 str 185-205

Z vol 17.25 33 str 210-234

F vol 16.75 33 str 245-270