From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 8/21/14

News:

 

Flash Aug mfg PMIs came out early this morning

  • Eurozone at 50.8 (lowest in 13 months) expecting 51.3 and vs. July final of 51.8
  • France at 46.5 expecting 47.8 and vs. July final of 47.8
  • China HSBC at 50.3 (3 month low) expecting 51.5 and vs. July final of 51.7
  • Germany at 52.0 expecting 51.8 and vs. July final of 56.7

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out today at 930 am CST at +88 BCF expecting +84 BCF

 

Saskatchewan weekly crop progress report. Government average yield estimates

  • Canola at 30 BPA
  • Hard red spring wheat at 39 BPA
  • Durum wheat at 38 BPA
  • Oats at 76 BPA
  • Barley at 60 BPA

 

Today was the final day of the ProFarmer crop tour. Highlights

  • Southern Minnesota average corn yield estimated at 169.7 BPA vs. 185.5 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 171.2 BPA
  • Southern Minnesota average bean pod count at 797.4 pods vs. 922.6 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 978.3 pods
  • Iowa average corn yield at 159.9 BPA vs. 172.5 BPA a year ago

 

Lanworth estimated US 2014 soybean yield at 46.7 BPA vs. previous estimate of 46.4 BPT

 

Lanworth estimated US 2014 soybean crop at 3.855 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.806 BB

 

Lanworth estimated US 2014 corn crop at 174.5 BPA vs. previous estimate of 174.8 BPA

 

Lanworth estimated US 2014 corn crop at 14.734 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.766 BB

 

CWG estimated US corn yield at 171.5 BPA vs. previous estimate of 171.0 BPA

 

Japan received no offers in weekly SBS tender for 120K tons of feed wheat and 200K tons of feed barley for Nov shipment

 

Japan seeks 120K tons of feed wheat and 200K tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Nov shipment

 

Iraq seeks 15,000 tons of Indian rice

 

Argentina Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 Argentina wheat area at 4.5 MH unchanged from previous estimate and vs. BAGE estimate of 4.1 MH

 

Soy area of Brazil’s top co-op Coamo to expand 8.4% next year , corn area to contract 9%

 

Romania Ag Min estimated 2014 rapeseed crop at 1.1 MMT (record)  vs. 647,811 tons a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 exportable grain surplus at 30.0+ MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 wheat crop at 13.0 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 wheat exports at 6-7 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said July 1st – Aug 20th Ukraine exported 3.657 MMT of grain

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Aug 19th Russia had harvested 66.3 MMT of grain on 21.6 MH with an average yield of 3.06 TPH . A year ago Russia harvested 53.0 MMT of grain on 20.7 MH with an average yield of 2.56 TPH

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of Aug 19th Kazakhstan had harvested 1.0 MMT tons of grain on 943,000 hectares

 

Indian monsoon rains 25% below average in the past week.

 

ADM Germany (formerly Toepfer International) estimated Germany’s 2014 wheat crop at 26.04 MMT unchanged from previous estimate vs. 2013 crop of 24.6 MMT

 

ADM Germany estimated 2014 rapeseed crop at 6.08 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.00 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 5.8 MMT

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 global rapeseed exports at 13.6 – 13.9 MMT vs. ‘13/14 record exports of 15.2 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Canada’s ‘14/15 canola exports at 7.8 MMT vs. 9.27 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Canada’s canola crop at 14.7 MMT vs. 18.0 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 EU28 rapeseed crop at 23.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.1 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 21.2 MMT

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 soybean crop at 10.5 MMT vs. 8.8 MMT a year ago

 

Swedish National Board of Agriculture estimated 2014 Sweden grain crop at 5.7 MMT vs. 5.3 MMT and vs. five year average of 4.8 MMT

 

Nov beans made a new contract low last night of 1035.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bot 3K
  • Corn bot 3K
  • Beans bot 2K
  • Meal bot 2K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • September options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CST
  • Final results/estimates from ProFarmer US Midwest crop tour comes out tomorrow at 130 pm CST.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Position day for September futures is Thursday Aug 28th.
  • First notice day for September futures is Friday Aug 29th.

 

Open outcry option players:

  • ABN bought 3,000 Nov bean 1080-1110 call spreads at 7 ¼ – 7 5/8
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Nov bean 1050/980/910 put flys at 17 ¾ debit
  • Mizuho bought 2,000 Oct bean 1100 calls at 6 -6 ¾
  • ICAP bought 1,500 Dec corn 340 puts and sold 3,000 Dec corn 320 puts at 1 debit
  • ABN sold 1,000 Oct corn 380 calls at 10 7/8
  • Bought 420 Dec futures at 369
  • Dowd Wescott sold 500 Oct wheat 580 call/520 put strangles at 14
  • Jefferies sold 200 Dec meal 340-320 put spreads at 6.75
  • EDF Mann bought 700 Dec meal 350 puts at 16.75 vs. Dec futures at 346.50
  • Jefferies bought 400 Dec bean oil 36 puts at 320
  • FI bought 500 Dec bean oil 34-37 call spreads and sold 500 Dec bean oil 32 puts at 25 debit
  • ADM sold 10 March crush 70 calls at 7
  • ADM sold 10 May crush 70 calls at 7
  • Kottke sold 10 Dec crush 1.00 calls at 4.5
  • RJO sold 16 Dec crush 1.00 calls at 4.5

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

U vo0l 24 ½ 360 str 5-5 ¾

V vol 21 ¼ 370 str 19 ½-20 ½

X vol 21 370 str 25 ¾ -26 ¾

Z vol 20 ¾ 370 str 30 ½-31

H vol 20 380 str 42 ¾-43 ¾

K vol 20 390 str 50 ½-51 ½

N vol 20 ¼ 400 str 59-60

Z15 vol 20 ½ 410 str 73 ½-74 ½

 

Beans:

U vol 21.5 1140 str 14-16

V vol 19 ½ 1040 str 50 ½-52 ½

X vol 19 ¼ 1040 str 66 ½-68 ½

F vol 18 1040 str 87-90

H vol 17 ½ 1060 103-107

K vol 17 ¼ 1060 str 117-121

N vol 17 1060 str 126-131

 

Wheat:

U vol 30 550 str 9-11

Z vol 22 ¾ 560 str 51-52

H vol 21 3/8 570 str 67-69

K vol 20 ¾ 580 str 78-79

N vol 20 5/8 590 str 87-90

 

KC wheat:

U vol 26 ½ 620 str 9-11

Z vol 20 ¾ 630 str 53-54

H vol 19 ¾ 640 str 70-73

K vol 19 ¼ 640 str 79-83

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 23 ½ 620 str 7-11

Z vol 19 620 str 45-50

H vol 18 640 str 60-66

 

Meal:

U vol 25 410 str 5-9

V vol 21.5 360 str 19.5-21

Z vol 20.25 350 str 28.5-30.5

F vol 19.25 350 str 31-34

H vol 18.5 340 str 35.5-39

 

Bean oil:

U vol 18 33 str 25-45

V vol 17.5 33 str 140-155

Z vol 17 33 str 215-235

F vol 17 33.5 str 255-280

H vol 16.75 33.5 str 305-330


Crush quotes:

OPEN                  CLOSE

SEP            1.26-1.30            1.32-1.34

OCT           1.02-1.035          1.07-1.09

DEC           85-86                     88-89

JAN           76-77.5                 78-80

MCH          68.5-69                70.5-72

MAY          67.5-68                 69.5-70.5

JLY             68-69                     70-70.5

AUG          69-73                    70-76

SEP5          80-85                    81-85

 

Crush and oil share pit players:

  • ABN sold 100 Nov/Sept/Sept crush at 218-219
  • JP Morgan bought 100 Jan crush at 80
  • ADM sold 200 Oct crush at 105
  • JP Morgan bought 50 March crush at 71.5
  • FI sold 20 Nov/Sept/Sept crush at 230
  • FI bought 50 Jan crush at 79.5
  • FC Stone sold 50 March oil bought 40 March meal at 33.30%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE