From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 8/19/14

News:

 

China sold 84,000 tons of soybeans at today’s auction. They offered 338,700 tons of soybeans

 

Egypt FIHC canceled tender for 25K soybean oil for Sept-Oct shipment

 

Japan seeks 146,858 tons of food wheat for Sept-Nov shipment . Breakdown

  • 37,885 tons of western white US wheat
  • 20,480 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 31,421 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 26,657 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 30,415 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Renewed concerns about tensions in Ukraine and Russia.

 

Ukraine Prime Minister expects the Ukraine to lose 15% of their 2014 grain crop due to fighting with Pro-Russian separatists rebels

 

Reports Ukraine flour milling association has asked the Ukraine government to temporarily halt exports of milling wheat until the full quality of the crop can be better assessed

 

Article on Reuters – Processors scramble to find soybeans for immediate commitments. Processors and exporters hope early harvested US beans out of the South will be available within the next 10-14 days , which will help ease some of the tightness

 

Lack of US farmer corn selling

 

Today was the second day of the ProFarmer Midwest US crop tour. Tour ends on Thursday. Some estimates from the tour today

  • 5 stops in Indiana (Hamilton, Tipton, Clinton, and Carroll counties) average corn yield estimated at 189.0 BPA vs. 174.5 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 143.5 BPA
  • Same 5 stops average soybean pod counts at 1,102 pods vs. 1,394 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,206.5 pods
  • Eastern Nebraska one leg of tour average corn yield at 155.0 BPA vs. 149 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 141.0 BPA
  • East Central Nebraska average corn yield 158.0 BPA vs. 164.7 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 151.0 BPA
  • Eastern Nebraska one leg of tour average bean pod counts at 963 pods vs. 1,147 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,107 pods
  • Another route average bean pod counts at 1,457 pods vs. 1,008 pods a year ago

 

Allendale said the tour will likely find even bigger crops in top producing states Iowa and Illinois

 

DBV  estimated Germany’s 2014 winter wheat crop at 26.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.0 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 24.6 MMT

 

DBV estimated Germany’s 2014 winter rapeseed crop at 5.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 5.7 MMT in 2013

 

DBV estimated Germany’s 2014 total grain crop at 50.0 MMT vs. 47.7 MMT in 2013

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low today of 3287

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bot 3K
  • Corn bot 2K
  • Beans sold 3K
  • Meal sold 1K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s Aug 1-20th palm oil exports tomorrow . Traders/analysts expecting they will be lower than July 1-20th exports.
  • Brazil government to auction corn tomorrow.
  • Tomorrow is the third day of the ProFarmer Midwest crop tour
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST . Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.75 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.70 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 300,000

 

Open outcry option players:

  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Nov bean 1200 calls at 2 and sold 40 Nov futures at 1049
  • FI sold 1,500 Sept short dated 1060/1000 put spreads at 17-19
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Nov bean 1160 puts at 115 7/8 -116 and bought 900 Nov futures at 1048
  •  Marex sold 1,000 Nov bean 1120 puts at 79 ½ and sold 800 Nov futures at 1050
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Dec corn 370 calls at 15 ¾
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 360 puts sold 2,000 Dec corn 340 puts at 1 ¼ debit
  • FI bought 1,000 Sept corn 360 straddles at 7 ½
  • XFA bought 3,000 Dec corn 350 puts at 7
  • Macquarie bought 300 Dec wheat 520 puts at 10
  • Rosenthal bought 800 Oct meal 390 calls at 7.50-7.75
  • Bunge bought 500 Oct meal 350 puts at 7.50
  • Bunge sold 1,000 Oct bean oil 33 calls at 55
  • Bunge sold 2,000 Dec bean oil 33 calls at 100-105
  • Bunge bought 1,000 Dec bean oil 28 puts at 6-8
  • New Edge bot 600 Jan bean oil 34 puts and sold 600 March bean oil 36.5 put/42.5 call strangles at 10 debit
  • New Edge bot 500 Oct bean oil 34 puts and sold 500 Jan bean oil 32.50 put/36 call strangles at 30 debit
  • New Edge bot 500 Dec bean oil 33-32 put spreads and sold 500 Dec bean oil 36 calls at 18 debit
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Dec bean oil 34 calls at 70
  • ABN sold 500 Dec bean oil 31.5 put/35 call strangles at 90

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

U vol 24 ½ 360 str 7-8

V vol 21 ½ 370 str 20 ½-21 ¼

X vol 21 ½ 370 str 26 ½-27 ½

Z vol 21 370 str 31 ¼-32

H vol 20 ½ 380 str 44-45

K vol 20 ¼ 390 str 51 ½-53

N vol 20 ¾ 400 str 60-61 ½

Z15 vol 20 ½ 410 str 74 ½-75 ½

 

Beans:

U vol 23 1120 str 20-22

V vol 19 1050 str 31-32 ½

X vol 18 ½ 1050 str 65 ½-67

F vol 17 3/8 1060 str 87-89

H vol 17 ¼ 1060 str 104-107

 

Wheat:

U vol 30 550 str 12-14

Z vol 22 560 str 49-51

H vol 21 580 str 68-70

K vol 20 ¼ 590 str 76-80

N vol 20 600 str 85-89

 

KC Wheat:

U vol 26 ½ 630 str 12-14

Z vol 20 ¾ 640 str 52-55

H vol 19 ½ 650 str 69-74

K vol 18 ¾ 650 str 76-81

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 22 ½ 620 str 10-14

Z vol 18 ½ 630 str 44-49

H vol 17 ¾ 640 str 59-64

 

Meal:

U vol 33 390 str 8-10

V vol 22.5 360 str 21-22.5

Z vol 21.25 350 str 31-32.5

F vol 20 350 str 32.5-34.0

H vol 19 350 str 36.5-38.50

 

Bean oil: 

U vol 17.75 32.5 str 45-55

V vol 16.75 33 str 135-155

Z vol 16.75 33 str 215-225

F vol 16.75 33.5 str 250-270

H vol 16.5 33.5 str 295-320

 

Crush quotes:

 

OPEN                CLOSE

SEP         1.095-1.12        1.18-1.195

OCT        96.5-97              96-98

DEC         88.5-89              86-86.5

JAN         79-80                 77-78.5

MCH       70.5-71              67-70

MAY        67.5-68             66.5-67

JLY           66-68                 66-67

AUG        67-72                 67-71

SEP5        82-86                 82-86

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ABN sold 50 Nov, Sept, Sept crush at 1.72
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters , DowJones, DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE