From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 8/18/14

News:

 

Today was the first day of the ProFarmer US Midwest crop tour. Some highlights from the tour

  • The first two routes in Ohio – corn average yield estimated at 183.6 BPA vs. 168.9 BPA a year ago
  • The first two routes in Ohio –  average bean pod count at 1,092 pods vs. 1,091 pods a year ago
  • In Ohio through 9 stops average corn yield estimated at 178.5 BPA vs. 159.5 BPA a year ago and vs. 141.0 BPA three year average
  • In Ohio through 9 stops average bean pod counts were seen at 801 pods vs. 1,304 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,401 pods
  • In Randolph and Henry counties in India corn yields estimated at 171.0 BPA vs. 163.0 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 135.0 BPA
  • In Indiana pod counts averaged 1,302 pods vs. 1,064 pods a year ago and vs. 1,040 pods 3 year average
  • One route in South Dakota (five fields surveyed) corn yields estimated at 110 BPA vs. 158 BPA a year ago due to hail damage 3 weeks ago
  • South Dakota soybean pod counts averaged 918 pods vs. 1,046 pods a year ago
  • Another route in South Dakota (6 stops) average corn yield 177.0 BPA vs. 158.0 BPA a year ago
  • South Dakota soybean pod counts on the second route averaged 1,290 pods vs. 1,046 a year ago

 

Weekly US export inspections report came out at 10 am CST today

  • Wheat at 596,675 tons expecting 400-525,000 tons
  • Corn at 970,874 tons expecting 775-925,000 tons
  • Beans at 56,210 tons expecting 25-125,000 tons

 

Brazil Abiove estimated Brazil’s 2014 bean exports at 45.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 44.0 MMT and vs. 2013 exports of 42.8 MMT

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 Canadian canola output at 14.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 14.5 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 record crop of 18.0 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Canada’s ‘14/15 canola exports at 7.8 MMT vs. 9.3 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Canada’s ‘14/15 canola crush at 7.2 MMT vs. 7.0 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Canada’s ‘14/15 canola ending stocks at 1.5MMT  vs. 2.1 MMT a year ago

 

Tensions are easing in Ukraine and Russia

 

Russia Ag Min said as of today Russia has harvested 65.1 MMT of grain on 21.0 MH with an average yield of 3.11 TPH a year ago Russia harvested 53.0 MMT of grain on 20.7 MH with an average yield of 2.56 TPH

 

Russia’s Stats Agency said Russia’s Aug 1st grain stocks at 30.3 MMT up 20.6% from a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Venezuela ‘14/15 estimates

  • Corn crop estimated at 1.4 MMT unchanged from a year ago
  • Corn imports estimated at 2.4 MMT unchanged from a year ago
  • Corn domestic use estimated at 3.8 MMT vs. 3.7 MMT a year ago
  • Corn ending stocks estimated at 126,000 tons vs. 166,000 tons a year ago


Dec bean oil made a new contract low today of 3310.

 

From an analyst source – a 10% import tax is expected on Brazil HRW wheat imports , in July the government suspended 10% import tax on up to 1.0 MMT of non-Mercosur wheat. The chance of Brazil importing any more US HRW wheat is slim due to Brazil wheat harvest about to get underway and additional wheat coming in from Argentina and Paraguay.

 

http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-farmers-are-up-to-their-ears-in-corn-1408318910 – Article in today’s Wall Street Journal about US corn crop.

 

Two corrections from my morning wire

  • Final ProFarmer crop tour estimates come out sometime on Friday , not on Thursday afternoon .
  • Egypt FIHC tenders tonight/tomorrow for 25,000 bean oil for Sept/Oct shipment. This morning I wrote FIHC bought 32,500 tons of sunflower oil and 15,000 tons of bean oil this was incorrect.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 3,000
  • Corn sold 8,000
  • Beans bought 3,000
  • Meal bought 1,000
  • Bean oil bought 1,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • China to auction 338,700 tons of beans from reserves tonight/tomorrow
  • Tomorrow is the second day of the ProFarmer crop tour
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.

 

Open outcry option players:

  • ADM sold 1,000 March bean 1100 puts at 69 ½ -71 ½
  • ADM bought 900 Nov bean 1050 calls at 34-36 and sold 900 Nov bean futures at 1053
  • RJO bought 5,000 Dec corn 350 puts at 6 ½ -6 5/8
  • FI sold 2,000 Dec corn 420 calls at 4 and sold 340 Dec futures at 378
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Dec corn 400 calls at 6 1/8
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March corn 400 calls at 18 ½ and sold 465 March corn futures at 391
  • ICAP sold 1,500 Dec corn 340 put/380 call strangles at 16 ¼ -16 3/8
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 350 puts and sold 1,000 Dec corn 380 calls at 5 7/8 and bought 680 Dec corn futures at 373
  • ABN sold 400 Dec wheat 600 calls at 10 ½ and bought 112 Dec wheat futures at 557
  • Tenco sold 400 Dec wheat 510 puts at 6 ½
  • ABN and Macquarie both sold 300 Dec wheat 520 puts at 9 1/8 and sold 72 Dec futures at 555 ½
  • ADM bought 300 Dec meal 350/320 put spreads at 9.00
  • New Edge bought 800 Dec bean oil 35 puts sold 800 March bean oil 33 put/36 call strangles at 25 debit
  • FI bought 300 Dec bean oil 39 puts at 565
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Dec bean oil 34 calls at 90

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

V vol 21 370 str 20 ¼ -21

X vol 20 ¾ 370 str 226-27

Z vol 20 ½ 370 str 31-31 ½

H vol 20 380 str 43 ¼-44 ¼

K vol 20 390 str 51-52 ½

N vol 20 ½ 400 str 59 ½-61

Z15 vol 20 ¼ 410 str 74-75

 

Beans:

U vol 24 ¾ 1110 str 24-26

V vol 19 ¼ 1050 str 53-55

X vol 18 ½ 1050 str 67-68

F vol 17 7/8 1060 str 88-90

H vol 17 3/8 1060 str 106-108

 

Wheat:

U vol 26 540 str 13-15

Z vol 21 550 str 47-49

H vol 20 ¼ 570 str 65-67

K vol 19 7/8 580 str 74-77

N vol 19 5/8 590 str 84-87

 

KC wheat:

U vol 25 ½ 620 str 15-17

Z vol 20 ½ 630 str 51-54

H vol 19 ½ 640 str 69-71

K vol 18 ½ 650 str 75-81

 

Minneapolis  wheat:

U vol 20 610 str 10-15

Z vol 18 ½ 620 str 43-48

H vol 17 ½ 630 str 58-64

 

Meal:

U vol 30.5 390 str 9.50-11.0

V vol 22.5 360 str 20.5-21.5

Z vol 21.25 350 str 30-32

F vol 20.25 350 str 32.5-34.5

H vol 19 350 str 37-39

 

Bean oil:

U vol 18 33 str 50-70

V vol 16.75 33 str 135-155

Z vol 16.75 33.5 str 215-240

F vol 16.75 33.5 str 255-280

H vol 16.75 34 str 310-340

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                CLOSE

SEP           1.105-1.14       1.09-1.11

OCT          98-99                 97-98

DEC          90.5-91              89.5-90

JAN          80.5-81.5          79-82

MCH        72-73                  72-73

MAY        69-71                   69-70

JLY           68.5-69                67-69

AUG       68-73.5                68-73.5

SEP5       81.5-86                81.5-86

 

Crush and oil share open outcry players:

  • ABN sold 100 Nov, Sept, Sept crush at 1.68-1.69
  • ABN sold 50 Dec crush at 89.25-89.5
  • RJO bought 100 Jan crush at 79-79.75
  • Dowd Wescott bought Dec oil share 826 Dec bean oil/ 472 Dec meal at 32.00%

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters , DowJones, DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE