From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 8/14/14

News:

 

August futures expired today at noon CST.

  • August beans went out at 1224 ½ down 40 cents on the day
  • August soymeal went out at 464.20  up $45.50 on the day
  • August bean oil went out at 3360 down 35 tics on the day

 

Strategie Grains ‘14/15 EU28 crop estimates

  • Soft wheat crop estimated at 144.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 140.4 MMT and up 6% from a year ago
  • Soft wheat exports estimated at 23.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.6 MMT
  • Barley crop estimated at 57.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 56.3 MMT
  • Corn crop estimated at 68.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 66.4 MMT

 

Oil World said India imported 6.3 MMT of palm oil between Oct 2013- July 2014 vs. 7.1 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World said India imported 1.4 MMT of bean oil between Oct 2013- July 2014 vs. 868,000 tons a year ago

 

Oil World said India imported 1.3 MMT of sun oil between Oct 2013- July 2014 vs. 827,000 tons a year ago

 

India’s monsoon rains 20% below average in the past week vs. 19% above average the week before

 

Russian customs data shows Russia exported 5.7 MMT of wheat between Jan-June 2014 vs. 1.2 MMT a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Aug 13 Ukraine has harvested 34.4 MMT of grain on 9.5 MH

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 3.3 MMT of grain between July 1st – Aug 14th up 40% from a year ago

 

Kazakhstan State Stats Agency said Kazakhstan has exported 2.41 MMT of wheat between Jan – June 2014 up 10.2% from a year ago

 

Kazakhstan’s state grain trader Food Contract Corporation estimated Kazakhstan’s 2014 grain crop at 14-15 MMT

 

Kazakhstan’s state grain trader Food Contract Corporation estimated Kazakhstan’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 6-7 MMT

 

Kazakhstan’s state grain trader Food Contract Corporation said Kazakhstan’s has exported 430,000 tons of grain to Iran and 15,000 tons of grain to China so far this year.

 

German Farm Coop estimated Germany’s 2014 grain crop at 50.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 48.4 MMT and vs. 47.8 MMT in 2013. Including

  • All wheat crop estimated at 26.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.5 MMT and vs. 25.0 MMT in 2013
  • Barley crop estimated at 11.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 10.7 MMT and vs. 10.3 MMT in 2013
  • Corn crop estimated at 5.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.2 MMT and vs. 4.4 MMT in 2013
  • Winter rapeseed crop estimated at 6.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.0 MMT and vs. 5.8 MMT in 2013.

 

India’s Ag Ministry weekly summer crop planting progress report.

  • India has planted 29.62 MH of rice between June 1st – Aug 14th vs. 29.90 MH a year ago and vs. 29.55 MH average
  • India has planted 7.22 MH of corn between June 1st – Aug 14th vs. 7.91 MH a year ago and v. 7.18 MH average
  • India has planted 16.31 MH of oilseeds between June 1st – Aug 14th vs. 18.23 MH a year ago and vs. 16.36 MH average
  • India has planted 10.78 MH of soybeans between June 1st – Aug 14th vs. 12.10 MH a year ago and vs. 10.28 MH average

 

Iraq Grain Board said Iraq has enough wheat to last until March 2015.

 

Iraq Grain Board estimated Iraq’s 2014 wheat imports at 2.0+ MMT

 

Iraq Grain Board said Iraq has already imported about 1.5 MMT of wheat so far this year

 

England’s Farm Ministry estimated 2014 wheat area at 1.8 MH up 19% from 2013 area.

 

England’s Farm Ministry estimated 2014 rapeseed area at 634,000 hectares down 6% from a year ago

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out this morning at 930 am CST at  +78 BCF expecting +82 BCF

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat – bot 3K
  • Corn –  bot 5K
  • Beans –   bot 4K
  • Meal – bot 3K
  • Bean oil – sold 2K

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their Aug 1-15th Malaysian palm oil export estimates.
  • NOPA July crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • Crush average estimate 115.823 MB , range of estimates are 113.0 MB – 117.35 MB. June crush was 118.718 MB . July 2013 crush was 116.338 MB
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.694 billion lbs. range of estimates are 1.476-1.80 B. June bean oil stocks were 1.847 B lbs. July 2013 bean oil stocks were 2.050 B lbs.
    • No meal export estimates are given. June meal exports were 388,112 tons and July 2013 meal exports were 351,356 tons
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

 

Open outcry option players

  • RJO sold 800 Sept bean 1080/1100 call spreads at 9 7/8 and bought 176 Sept futures at 1088
  • Rosenthal sold 2,000 Nov bean 1100/1000 put spreads at 46 ¾  -47 ¼
  • RJO sold 1,600 Nov 2015 1040/1080 call spreads at 18 ¾ -19 ¼ (Jefferies sold 1,900 of these spreads yesterday at the same price)
  • Rosenthal bought 4,000 Dec corn 320 puts and sold 1,000 Dec corn 350 puts (1×4) at even money.
  • FI bought 1,000 Dec corn 320 puts at 1 5/8
  • Macquarie bought 2,000 Sept corn 340 puts at a ¼
  • Rosenthal sold 1,000 Dec corn 370 calls at 17 ½
  • ADM bought 500 Sept/Dec wheat -17 CSO straddles at 5
  • ABN sold 500 Dec wheat 600 calls at 8 ½ tied to Dec futures at 549 ½
  • Jefferies sold 1,000 Oct meal 370 calls at 5.15-5.25
  • ABN bought 400 May meal 320 puts sold 400 May meal 370 calls at even
  • JP Morgan sold 500 Dec meal 400 calls at 185
  • JP Morgan sold 1,250 Dec bean oil 32 put/36 call strangles at 85
  • ABN bought 700 Dec bean oil 36.50-38.50 call spreads and sold 600 Dec bean oil 34 puts at 105 debit
  • Tenco sold 200 March bean oil 33 puts at 100
  • Kottke sold 10 Dec crush 90 calls at 8

 

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

U vol 21 ½ 360 str 9-10

V vol 20 370 str 20 ¼-21

X vol 20 370 str 25 ¾ -26 ¾

Z vol 20 370 str 30 ½-31

H vol 19 ¾ 380 str 43-44

K vol 19 ¾ 400 str 51 ½-53

N vol 20 ¼ 400 str 59-60 ½

Z15 vol 20 ¼ 410 str 74-75 ½

 

Beans

U vol 20 ¾ 1100 str 28 ½-30

V vol 20 1050 str 58 ½-59 ½

X vol 19 1/8 1050 str 71 ½ -72 ½

F vol  18 1060 str 92-93

H vol 17 ½ 1080 str 108-110

K vol 17 ½ 1080 str 122-126

N vol 17 ½ 1080 str 134-138

 

Wheat

U vol 22 ¾ 540 str 15-17

Z vol 21 550 str 47-49

H vol 20 ¼ 570 str 65-67

K vol 20 580 str 74-77

N vol 20 590 str 87-89

 

KC Wheat

U vol 20 ¾ 610 str 15-17

Z vol 19 ½ 620 str 50-52

H vol 19 630 str 67-70

K vol 18 ¾ 640 str 78-81

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 20 610 str 13-19

Z vol 17 ½ 620 str 43-49

H vol 17 630 str 60-66

 

Meal

U vol 27.25 380 str 12-13.50

V vol 23 350 str 21.5-23

Z vol 21.5 350 str 30-32

F vol 20.25 350 str 33-35

H vol 19 340 str 37.9-39.5

 

Bean oil

U vol 17.5 33.5 str 55-70

V vol 16.75 33.5 str 145-160

Z vol 16.75 34 str 225-240

F vol 16.75 34 str 260-590

H vol 16.75 34.5 str 320-340

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN                  CLOSE

AUG         65-75                (settled at 1.66)

SEP            1.05-1.08        1.11-1.13

OCT           90-91               94-96

DEC           81.5-82            88-89

JAN           72-73.5            77-78

MCH         67.5-69            69.5-70

MAY         65.5-67            66.5-68.5

JLY             67-68                67-68

AUG5       68-74                69-71

 

Crush and oil share players

  • Rand bought 200 Oct crush at 93.50-94
  • Tenco sold 50 Oct crush at 95
  • Rosenthal bought May oil share 50×50 at 33.25%
  • ABN sold March oil share 50×40 at 33.15%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE