From the Floor-An Afternoon Recap 8/13/14

News:

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean imports at 70+ MMT (record) up 17% from a year ago vs. USDA estimate of 69.0 MMT

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘14/15 bean imports at 73.0 MMT

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s Aug bean imports at 6.2 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2014 grain crop at 63+ MMT (record)

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 657,750 tons of palm oil in July vs. 598,247 tons in June up 14% from a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 306,068 tons of bean oil in July up 30% from a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 111,936 tons of sunflower oil in July up 80% from a year ago

 

Argentina Ag Min – Farmers selling as of Aug 6th

  • Sold 65.62% of their ‘13/14 wheat crop vs. 97.66% sold a year ago
  • Sold 61.87% of their ‘13/14 corn crop vs. 73.74% sold a year ago
  • Sold 52.14% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 61.02% sold a year ago

 

Australian Crop Forecaster Profarmer estimated Australia’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 24.86 MMT up 1% from previous estimate

 

Head of Iraq’s Grain Board said Islamic state militants have taken wheat from state silos and sent it to Iraqi and Syrian mills – Reuters

 

Iraq Grain Board said stopped buying local wheat last week in attempt to avoid militant smuggling –Reuters

 

Czech Statistics Office estimated 2014 grain crop at 7.056 MMT vs. 6.824 MMT a year ago and up 4.4% from 10 year average.

 

Analysts are reporting that the USDA estimate for EU corn imports from the US is way too high. Yesterday the USDA estimated EU corn imports from US at 11.0 MMT down from their previous estimate of 13.0 MMT but analysts are estimating the imports at 6-7 MMT .

 

Sept KC wheat made new contract lows today of 602 ¾

 

Sept Minneapolis wheat made new contract lows today of 603

 

Dec bean oil made new contract lows today of 3430

 

Today was the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll . In the last minute of trade

  • 7,788 Sept / Dec wheat spreads traded electronically at – 18 to -16 ¾
  • 3,161 Sept/Dec KC wheat spreads traded electronically at -14 ¾ to -15 ¾
  • 103 Sept/Dec KC wheat spreads traded in the pit at -15
  • 18,873 Sept/Dec corn spreads traded electronically at -11 ½ to -12
  • 2,113 Sept/Dec corn spreads traded in the pit at -11 ¾

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat – sold 3K
  • Corn – bot 2K
  • Beans –  sold 4K
  • Meal – sold 1K
  • Bean oil – sold 3K

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Tomorrow is the last trading day for August futures. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST.
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • Wheat 450,000-650,000 tons
    • Corn 600,000 – 900,000 tons
    • Beans 850,000 – 1.15 MMT
    • Meal 300,000 – 625,000 tons
    • Bean oil 0-30,000 tons
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +82 BCF
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • Crush average estimate 115.823 MB , range of estimates are 113.0 MB – 117.35 MB. June crush was 118.718 MB . July 2013 crush was 116.338 MB
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.694 billion lbs. range of estimates are 1.476-1.80 B. June bean oil stocks were 1.847 B lbs. July 2013 bean oil stocks were 2.050 B lbs.
    • No meal export estimates are given. June meal exports were 388,112 tons and July 2013 meal exports were 351,356 tons

 

Open outcry option players

  • ICAP sold 1,000 Nov bean 1040 puts at 30 and sold 380 Nov futures at 1057
  • JP Morgan bought 2,500 Nov bean 1200 calls at 2 7/8
  • JP Morgan bought 600 Nov bean 1050/980/910 put flys at 13 ¼ -13 7/8
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Sept bean 1020/1000 put spreads at ¾
  • Advantage sold 1,000 Nov bean 1040 puts at 29 ½-29 ¾ and sold 420 Nov futures at 1055
  • ABN sold 1,000 Nov bean 980 puts at 11 ½ -12 ¼ and sold 200 Nov futures at 1052-1053
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Oct bean 1020 puts at 17 ½
  • GFI bought 1,800 Nov bean 1110 calls at 13 ½ -14 ¼
  • Jefferies sold 1,800 Nov bean 1040/1080 call spreads at 18 ¾ -19
  • ADM sold 2,000 Dec corn 350 calls at 24 3/8 -24 ½
  • JP Morgan bought 2,000 Dec corn 470 calls at ¾
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Nov corn 350 puts at 7
  • ICAP sold 2,000 Dec corn 360 straddles at 11 -11 1/8
  • FI bought 1,000 Dec wheat 550 puts at 24 ½ -24 7/8
  • GFI bought 500 Dec wheat 550 puts at 23 ¼-25
  • RJO sold 400 week 5 soymeal 365 put at 16.00
  • RJO sold 600 Oct bean oil 36-34 put spreads at 130
  • New Edge sold 300 Jan bean oil 36.5-34.5 put spreads at 118

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

U vol 21 ½ 360 str 9 ½-10 ½

V vol 19 ¾ 370 str 19 ¾-20 ¼

X vol 20 370 str 25 ¾ -26 ½

Z vol 20 370 str 30 ¼-30 ¾

H vol 19 ¼ 380 str 42-43

K vol 19 ½ 390 str 50-51 ½

N vol 19 ¾ 400 str 58-59 ½

Z15 vol 20 410 str 73-74 ½

 

Beans

U vol 22 1080 str 30 ½-32 ½

V vol 20 ½ 1050 59-61

X vol 19 ½ 1050 str 72-74

F vol 18 1060 str 92-94

H vol 17 ¾ 1060 str 107-110

K vol 17 ¼ 1080 str 121-125

N vol 17 ¼ 1080 str 131-136

 

Wheat

U vol 24 530 str 16-18

Z vol 21 550 str 48-50

H vol 20 ¼ 570 str 65-68

K vol 20 580 str 74-78

N vol 19 ¾ 590 str 84-88

 

KC Wheat

U vol 21 ¼ 600 str 16-18

Z vol 20 ¼ 620 str 51-54

H vol 19 630 str 67-71

K vol 18 ½ 630 str 74-80

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 20 610 str 13-19

Z vol 17 ½ 620 str 43-49

H vol 17 630 str 60-66

 

Meal

U vol 26.25 370 str 11-13

V vol 23 350 str 21.5-23

Z vol 21.75 340 str 30-32

F vol 20.25 340 str 33-35

H vol 19 340 str 37.5-39.5

 

Bean oil

U vol 18 34 str 70-80

V vol 16.75 34 str 150-160

Z vol 16.75 34.5 str 230-245

F vol 16.75 34.5 str 270-285

H vol 16.75 35 str 320-345

 

Crush quotes

OPEN                CLOSE

AUG     -30 to -20         35-45 (over)

SEP        93-94                1.04-1.05

OCT       87.5-88            91-92

DEC       72.5-73             83-83.5

JAN       72.5-73             71.5-74.5

MCH     68-69                 68.5-69

MAY      66-67                67-68

JLY          66-67                67.5-68

AUG5    68-71.5             70-71.5

 

Crush and oil share players

  • JP Morgan sold 70 Sept/Oct/Oct crush at 51
  • Tenco sold 20 Sept crush at 1.04
  • Tenco sold 40 Nov/Sept/Sept crush at 1.3075
  • Tenco sold 50 Oct crush at 89.5
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE