From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 8/08/14

News:

 

China’s customs data showed that China has imported 11.34 MMT of cereal (mainly wheat , rice , and corn) between Jan – July 2014 up 80% from a year ago

 

JC Intelligence estimated China’s 2014 corn crop at 200.0 MMT vs. 2013 record crop of 203.0 MMT. First drop in five years due to drought in North China Plain.

 

USDA attaché in Australia estimated 2014 wheat crop at 24.5 MMT down 9% from a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Kazakhstan estimated ‘14/15 wheat crop at 14.0 MMT up slightly from a year ago

 

French and Germany crop news

  • Reports still talking about the rains in France and Germany, delaying harvest and reducing the quality of wheat.
  • FranceAgriMer said as of Monday 92% of the wheat crop had been harvested vs. 76% a week earlier and vs. 61% a year ago
  • France had the wettest July on record this year.
  • Good yields being reported in France
  • Agritel estimated France wheat crop at 38.16 MMT vs. previous estimate of 37.3 MMT close to the record crop set in 1998 of 38.25 MMT
  • ODA estimated France wheat crop at 37.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 37.3 MMT
  • Analysts estimated that only 60% of Germany’s wheat crop has been harvested, only 10% was harvested in the last week due to continued rains.

 

ADAS said UK wheat harvest is about 20% complete as of Tuesday vs. five year average of 5%

 

IGC estimated UK wheat crop at 15.5 MMT up 30% from last season

 

India’s planting progress June 1st – Aug 7th. Ag Ministry

  • Rice planted on 26.73 MH vs. 27.31 MH a year ago and vs. average of 39.10 MH
  • Corn planted on 6.67 MH vs. 7.73 MH a year ago and vs. average of 7.0 MH
  • Oilseeds planted on 15.22 MH vs. 17.37 MH a year ago and vs. average of 15.62 MH
  • Soybean planted on 10.31 MH vs. 11.88 MH a year ago and vs. 10.11 MH average

 

Reports Australia may start harvesting wheat up to three weeks earlier than normal

 

Indonesia bought 50,000 tons of rice from Vietnam

 

South Korea bought 34,724 tons of rice from China for Nov-Dec shipment

 

LSB Industries said Industry consensus is that about 90.0 MA of corn will be planted in the US in 2015

 

COPA said Canadian crushers crushed 131,175 tons of canola in the first 6 days of the new crop year vs. 100,559 tons a year ago

 

COPA said Canadian crushers crushed 16,790 tons of beans in the first 6 days of the new crop year vs. 23,897 tons a year ago

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low today of 3556.

 

Today was the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They are rolling long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into Dec. In the last minute of trade

  • Corn pit = 960  Sept/Dec corn spreads traded at  -11 ¾
  • Corn electronic=  19,872 Sept/Dec corn spreads traded at -11 ½ to -11 ¾
  • Wheat pit =  525 Sept/Dec wheat spreads traded at  -16 ¾ to -17
  • Wheat electronic=  9,326 Sept/Dec wheat spreads traded at  -16 ½ to -17 ¼
  • KC wheat pit =  87 Sept/Dec KC wheat spreads traded at -13 ¾
  • KC wheat electronic= 2,461 Sept/Dec KC wheat spreads traded at -13 ¼ to -13 ¾

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat – sold 4K
  • Corn –  sold 7K
  • Beans –  bought 3K
  • Meal –  bought 1K
  • Bean oil – sold 1K

 

Open outcry option players:   

  • FI sold 4500 short dated U 1060-1000 put spreads
  • Advantage bot 1500 Oct bean 1080 puts/bot 720 Nov futures
  • ICAP bot 500 Nov bean 1050 puts/bot 500 Nov bean 1110 calls
  • Macquarie bot 500 Sept bean 1110 straddles
  • Macquarie sold 500 Sept bean 1150 calls/bot 100 SU futures
  • ADM bot 400 Sept bean 1060 puts
  • Jefferies sold 1,000 Nov corn 370 straddles at 32-32 ¼ and bought 30 Dec corn futures at 369
  • FC Stone bought 1,000 Dec corn 330/300 put spreads at 3 3/8
  • FI bought 2,300 Dec corn 330/300 put spreads at 3 ½ -3 5/8
  • New Edge bought 600 Dec wheat 540-500 put spreads and sold 600 Dec wheat 630 calls
  • ICAP bought 500 Dec meal 360 calls
  • Macquarie sold 300 Dec meal 360 calls
  • Rosenthal bought 800 Dec bean oil 36.5-38.5 call spreads and sold 800 Dec bean oil 34 puts at 5 debit
  • ADM bought 500 Sept bean oil 38.50 puts

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday with their July palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey, expecting

o   July palm oil stocks at 1.64 MMT vs. 1.66 MMT in June

o   July palm oil output at 1.65 MMT vs. 1.57 MMT in June  

o   July palm oil exports at 1.45 MMT vs. 1.48 MMT in June

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out with their Malaysian Aug 1-10th palm oil export estimates on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Monday will be the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends on Wednesday.

 

USDA August crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Tuesday at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for USDA report.

 

Estimates for US 2014 corn and bean production

  • Corn production (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.253 BB range of estimates are 13.988 – 14.778 BB. July WASDE estimate was 13.86 BB and 2013 final corn production was 13.925 BB
  • Corn yield (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 170.098 BPA, range of estimates are 168-174.8 BPA. July WASDE estimate was 165.3 BPA and 2013 final corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Bean production (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.823 BB, range of estimates are 3.70-3.951 BB. July WASDE estimate was 3.8 BB and 2013 final bean production was 3.289 BB
  • Bean yield (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 45.583 BPA, range of estimates are 44.5-47.0 BPA. July WASDE estimate was 45.2 BPA and 2013 final bean yield was 43.3 BPA

 

Estimates for US 2014 wheat production

  • All wheat production (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.010 BB, range of estimates are 1.986 -2.068 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.992 BB and 2013 all wheat production was 2.130 BB
  • All winter wheat production (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.372 BB, range of estimates are 1.358-1.413 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.367 BB and 2013 all winter wheat production was 1.534 BB.
  • Hard red winter wheat production (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .707 BB, range of estimates are .694-.752 BB. USDA July estimate was .703 BB and 2013 hard red winter wheat production was .744 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat production (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .461 BB, range of estimates are .452-.474 BB. USDA July estimate was .458 BB and 2013 soft red winter wheat production was .565 BB.
  • White winter wheat production (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .204 BB, range of estimates are .197-.209 BB. USDA July estimate was .206 BB and 2013 white winter wheat production was .225 BB
  • Other spring wheat production (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .579 BB, range of estimates are .562-.634 BB. July USDA estimate was .565 BB and 2013 other spring wheat production was .534 BB
  • Durum wheat production (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .060 BB, range of estimates are .053-.065 BB. July USDA estimate was .060 BB and 2013 durum wheat production was .062 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.240 BB , range of estimates are 1.196 – 1.356 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.246 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .136 BB, range of estimates are .125-.142 BB. USDA July estimate was .140 BB

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .663 BB, range of estimates are .557-.744 BB. USDA July estimate was .660 BB.
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.005 BB, range of estimates are 1.777-2.203 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.801 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .414 BB, range of estimates are .309-.492 BB. USDA July estimate was .415 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 184.25 MMT , range of estimates are 181.55 – 187.09 MMT. USDA July estimate was 184.29 MMT
  • Corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 172.85 MMT, range of estimates are 166.07-175.00 MMT . USDA July estimate was 173.42 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 67.32 MMT, range of estimates are 67.0-68.53 MMT. USDA July estimate was 67.24 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 190.41 MMT, range of estimates are 186.21-195.40 MMT. USDA July estimate was 189.54 MMT
  • Corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 192.53 MMT, range of estimates are 185.40-208.34 MMT. USDA July estimate was 188.05 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 85.90 MMT, range of estimates are 84.02-88.75 MMT. USDA July estimate was 85.31 MMT

 

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

U vol 27 ¼ 355 str 16-16 1/2

V vol 24 365 str 26-26 ½

X vol  23 ¼ 365 str 31 ¼ -31 ¾

Z vol  23 360 str 35 ¾ -36 ¼

H vol 21 ½ 380 str 47 ½-48

N vol 21 ½ 390 str 62-63

 

Beans:

U vol 24 ½ 1110 str 43-45

V vol 23 1080 str 72-74

X vol 21 ¼ 1080 str 83 ½-85 ½

F vol 18 ¾ 1100 str 100-104

H vol 18 ¼ 1100 str 115 ½-119

 

Wheat:

U vol 29 550 str 24-26

Z vol 23 570 str 55-57

H vol 21 ½ 690 str 73-75

K vol 21 600 str 91-95

N vol 20 ¾ 610 str 91-95

 

KC wheat:

U vol 27 630 str 26-28

Z vol 21 ½ 640 str 57-59

H vol 20 650 str 73-75

K vol 19 ½ 660 str 83-86

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 25 620 str 23-26

Z vol 20 630 str 52-58

H vol 19 640 str 68-75

 

Meal:

U vol 26 370 str 15-17

V vol 24.5 350 str 25-27

Z vol 23.2 350 str 33.5-35.5

F vol 21.7 350 str 35.5-38.5

H vol 20.4 350 str 40-42

K vol 19 350 str 42-45

 

Bean oil:

U vol 18.5 35.5 str 95-110

V vol 18 35.5 str 180-195

Z vol 17.75 36 str 260-270

F vol 17.25 36 str 300-325

H vol 17.25 36.5 str 345-380

K vol 16.75 36.5 str 430-470

N vol 16.75 36.5 str 430-470

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN            CLOSE

AUG       -15-EV         -15 TO -25

SEP         92-93.5          86-87

OCT        86.5-88          84.5-85.5

DEC        82.5-83           81-81.5

JAN        74-75.5          72.5-73

MCH       70.5-72         68.5-69.5

MAY       69-70             67.5-68.5

JLY           69.5-70         67.5-68.5

AUG5     69-72.5         68.5-72

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • Rosenthal sold 50 Dec 2015 crush at 85
  • No oil share players in the pit today

 

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE