From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 8/05/14

News:

 

Report China is seeking US new crop beans out of the Gulf .

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated ‘14/15 Ukraine rapeseed exports at 1.85 MMT down 17% from ‘13/14

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated ‘14/15 Ukraine rapeseed production at 2.05 MMT vs. 2.35 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Ukraine Ag Min said dry weather may significantly reduce the Ukrainian corn yields

 

Analysts said rains are hitting Ukrainian wheat quality , more animal feed and less higher grade bread-making grain this year

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 corn crop at 23.5 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 26.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 wheat exports at 2.5 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 2.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 barley crop at 3.1 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 3.85 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 corn exports at 15.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 16.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Thailand estimated ‘14/15 corn crop at 4.8 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 4.9 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Thailand estimated ‘14/15 corn imports at 600,000 tons unchanged from ‘13/14 imports

 

USDA attaché in Thailand estimated ‘14/15 corn domestic use at 5.3 MMT vs. 4.9 MMT in ’13/14

 

USDA attaché Thailand estimated ‘14/15 corn ending stocks at 133,000 tons vs. 143,000 tons in ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Mexico estimated ‘14/15 corn crop at 22.3 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Mexico estimated ‘13/14 corn imports at 10.7 MMT

 

Thailand government tenders to sell 167,000 tons of rice from reserves on Aug 7th

 

Iraq seeks 30,000 tons of rice from the US , South America, Vietnam , and or Thailand .

 

Oil World said Indonesia’s Jan – May 2014 palm oil exports were the second highest ever.

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia has harvested 52.3 MMT of grain on 15.7 MH with an average yield of 3.34 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 40.2 MMT of grain on 14.5 MH with an average yield of 2.77 TPH

  • Russia has harvested 40.2 MMT of wheat on 11.1 MH with an average yield of 3.61 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 31.1 MMT of wheat on 10.2 MH with an average yield of 3.04 TPH.

 

Informa came out this morning at 1030 am CST with crop estimates

  • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 3.7 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.7 BB and vs. USDA estimate of 3.8 BB
  • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 44.5    BPA vs. previous estimate of 44.5 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 45.2 BPA
  • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 13.988 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.73 BB and vs. USDA estimate of 13.86 BB
  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at  168.0  BPA vs. previous estimate of 165.0 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 165.3 BPA
  • 2014 US all wheat crop estimated at 1.986 BB vs. previous estimate of 1.960 BB
  • 2014 US HRW wheat crop estimated at 699 MB vs. previous estimate of 702 MB
  • 2014 US SRW wheat crop estimated at 463 MB
  • 2014 Russian wheat crop estimated at 56.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 52.5 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 53.0 MMT
  • 2014 Kazakhstan wheat crop estimated at 15.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.5 MMT
  • 2013 Brazil total corn crop estimated at 78.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 76.55 MMT
  • 2014 EU corn crop estimated at 67.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 66.4 MMT
  • 2014 Canadian canola crop estimated at 14.5 MMT

 

Reuters poll of 6 analyst –  4Th quarter grain price forecasts

  • Wheat average estimate $5.52 (Sept wheat settled today at 552 ½ )
  • Corn average estimate $3.52 (Dec corn settled today at 367 ¼)
  • Bean average estimate $10.27 (Nov beans settled today at 1065 ¾)

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bot 3K
  • Corn sold 3K
  • Beans sold 5K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 3K

 

Open outcry option players:

  • Jefferies bot 800 Nov bean 1000/940 put spreads at 13
  • ABN sold 2,500 Nov bean 920 puts at 6 ½ -6 5/8 and sold 275 Nov futures at 1065
  • ABN sold 2,000 Nov 920 puts at 5 3/8 -5 ½
  • EDF Mann sold 5,000 Dec corn 320 puts at 4 ¼
  • Macquarie sold 900 Sept wheat 520 puts at 4 ¾ tied to futures at 545
  • Macquarie sold 500 Sept wheat 590 calls at 3
  • Macquarie sold 350 Sept meal 360 calls at 7.40-7.60 tied to Sept futures at 356.00
  • Large players were absent today from oil option pits.

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • US trade balance report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude a draw of 1.5 MB

o   Gas a draw of 300,00

o   Distillates a build of 700,000

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Reuters estimates for the USDA Aug 12th crop report should be out sometime tomorrow

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

U vol 28 355 str 16 ¾-17 ½

V vol 24 ½ 370 str 24-25

X vol 23 ½ 370 str 32-33

Z vol 25 ½ 370 str 37-37 ½

H vol 22 380 str 48 ½-49

N vol 22 400 str 64 ½-65 ½

Z15 vol 21 ½ 410 str 78-79

 

Beans:

U vol 25 ½ 1080 str 48 ½-50

V vol 23 ½ 1060 str 75 ½-77

X vol 22 ¼ 1060 str 88-88 ½

F vol 19 ½ 1080 str 104 ½-106

H vol 18 ¾ 1080 str 119-122

 

Wheat:

U vol 30 550 str 29-30

Z vol 23 ¾ 570 str 57-60

H vol 21 ½ 590 str 74-76

K vol 20 ¾ 600 str 82-85

N vol 20 ½ 610 str 91-95

 

KC Wheat:

U vol 27 ½ 640 str 30-32

Z vol 21 ½ 660 str 60-64

H vol 19 ¾ 660 str 76-78

K vol 19 ½ 670 str 85-90

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 24 ½ 630 str 25-29

Z vol 19 640 str 49-55

H vol 18 ¼ 650 str 65-71

 

Meal:

U vol 29 360 str 17.5-19.5

V vol 25 350 str 25.5-27.5

Z vol 23.5 340 str 35-37

F vol 21.25 340 str 36.5-38.5

H vol 20.25 340 str 41-43

 

Bean oil:

U vol 19 35.5 str 110-125

V vol 18.5 35.5 str 190-210

Z vol 18.25 36 str 280-285

F vol 17.5 36 str 300-320

H vol 17.25 36.5 str 350-380

 

Crush quotes:

 

OPEN              CLOSE

AUG           15-25               10-20

SEP             98.5-1.00        93-97

OCT            90.5-92            88-90

DEC            86.5-87            84.5-85

JAN            77-78.5            77-77.5

MCH          74.5-75            74-74.5

MAY           72-73               70.5-72.5

JLY              71.5-73            71-72

AUG5        70-76                73-76

 

Crush and oil share players

  • No crush pit players today
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE