From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 8/04/14

News:

 

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST.

  • Wheat at 351,503 tons expecting 350,000-475,000 tons
  • Corn at 1,140,546 tons expecting 750,000- 950,000 tons
  • Beans at 39,256 tons expecting 50,000-115,000 tons

 

IKAR Russian estimates

  • 2014 wheat crop at 58.5 MMT (6 year high) vs. previous estimate of 57.5 MMT.
  • Russia has already harvested 39.0 MMT of wheat (43% of total area)
  • Estimated July exports at 3.0 MMT (record for the month) vs. 2.5 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated 2014 total grain crop at 101.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 98.0 MMT
  • Estimated ‘14/15 wheat exports at 22.0 + MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 2.36 MMT of grain between July 1st – Aug 4th

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 grain exports at 30.0 MMT and ‘14/15 grain crop at 60.0 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Aug 1st Ukraine has harvested 28.2 MMT of grain.

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 378,700 tons of grain in July vs. 561,200 tons a year ago

 

Too much rain in France, Germany, and Poland damaging wheat crops.

 

Analysts said they are expecting Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil output to increase in July and August, while expecting demand from overseas to decrease.

 

Analysts said they expect Malaysia’s monthly ending stocks to be up to 2.0 MMT in the next 2-3 months. June ending stocks were 1.66 MMT

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board estimated Malaysia’s 2014 palm oil output at 19.5 MMT (record) vs. 19.2 MMT in 2013

 

Brazil Ag Min said Brazilian farmers facing low corn prices could see some government subsidies later this month – Reuters

 

Strategie Grains estimated 2014 EU rapeseed crop at 22.9 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 22.5 MMT and vs. 21.1 MMT in 2013.

 

Other analysts are estimating 2014 EU rapeseed crop at 22.0 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated 2014 US bean crop at 101 MMT (3.71 MB) up one million tons from previous estimate

 

USDA attaché in India estimated ‘14/15 rice crop at 99.5 MMT , lower than previous estimate due to dry weather in June and July.

 

USDA attaché in India estimated ‘14/15 rice exports at 8.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in India estimated ‘14/15 corn crop at 21.2 MMT, lower than previous estimate due to dry weather in June and July.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 4K
  • Corn bought 4K
  • Beans bought 6K
  • Meal bought 2,500
  • Bean oil bought 3,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • FC Stone comes out today at 3 pm CST with their 2014 US crop estimates
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting steady to down 2% on corn and bean good to excellent conditions from a week ago and steady to down 1% on good to excellent spring wheat conditions from a week ago.
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST. Previous estimates are

o   Bean crop 3.7 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.8 BB

o   Bean yield 44.5 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 45.2 BPA

o   Corn crop 13.73 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.86 BB

o   Corn yield 165.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 165.3 BPA

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • ECB meets on Thursday.
  • CONAB comes out on Thursday with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates
  • Stats Canada comes out on August 21st with their Canadian crop estimate updates.

 

Open outcry option players: Very quiet on the grain floor today.

  • FI bot 375 Nov bean 1100 calls and sold 750 Sept short dated 1150 calls at 25 debit and sold 75 Nov futures at 1071
  • Cunningham sold 750 Sept short dated bean 1140/1100 put spreads at 29-29 ½
  • Rosenthal sold 1,000 Nov bean 1000 calls at 95 ¼-96 and bought 760 Nov futures at 1073
  • Bunge bot 1,000 Nov bean 1100 calls and sold 1,000 July bean 1100 calls at 38 ½ credit
  • Drax sold 2,000 Sept 1240 puts at 151 ½ sold 1,960 Sept futures at 1089
  • FI bot 2,000 Sept short dated corn 390 calls at 2 ½ – 2 ¾
  • Macquarie bot 1,000 Sept corn 375 calls and sold 1,000 Sept corn 340 puts at a ½ credit and sold 400 Sept futures at 355 ½
  • ABN bot 2,000 Sept short dated corn 400 puts and sold 2,000 Sept 400 corn puts at 9 credit
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Oct corn 330 puts at 2 5/8 and bought 110 Dec corn futures at 370
  • ICAP sold 1,500 Sept wheat 530 calls and bought 1,500 Sept wheat 550 calls and 1,500 Sept wheat 570 calls at 4 credit . (call tree)
  • ABN sold 700 Oct wheat 560/590 call spreads at 12 tied to Dec futures at 566
  • ABN sold 600 Dec wheat 560/580 call spreads at 8 5/8 tied to futures at 566
  • Large players were absent today from meal and oil option pits.

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

U vol 27 ¾ 360 str 17 ½-18 ½

V vol 24 ½ 370 str 27-28

X vol 24 370 str 33-34

Z vol 23 ½ 370 str 37 ¼-38 ¼

H vol 22 380 str 49-50

K vol 21 ¾ 390 str 57-58

N vol 22 400 str 65-66 ½

Z15 vol 21 ½ 410 str 78 ½ -80

 

Beans:

U vol 26 ¼ 1090 str 51-53

V vol 24 ½ 1080 str 80-82

X vol 23 1080 str 92 ½- 94 ½

F vol 20 1080 str 108-110

H vol 19 ¼ 1100 str 123-127

K vol 18 ½ 1100 str 134-138

N vol 17 ¾ 1100 str 142-146

 

Wheat:

U vol 30 540 str 29-31

Z vol 23 ½ 570 str 56-58

H vol 21 ½ 580 str 73-75

K vol 20 ¾ 600 str 82-85

N vol 20 ½ 600 str 90-93

 

KC wheat:

U vol 28 640 str 31-34

Z vol 21 ¾ 650 str 60-64

H vol 19 ¾ 660 str 75-79

K vol 19 ½ 660 str 85-89

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 24 620 str 26-30

Z vol 19 630 str 50-55

H vol 18 ¼ 650 str 64-70

 

Meal:

U vol 30 350 str 19-20.5

V vol 25.75 350 str 27-28.5

Z vol 23.75 350 str 35-37

F vol 22 350 str 37-39

H vol 21.75 350 str 41-43

 

Bean oil:

U vol 19 36 str 115-130

V vol 18.5 36 str 195-210

Z vol 18 36.5 str 275-290

F vol 17.5 36.5 str 305-325

H vol 17.25 36.5 str 355-380

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN              CLOSE

AUG         2030               15-25

SEP           99-1.02           95-1.00

OCT          91.5-92           90-91

DEC           87-88               85.5-86.5

JAN           77.5-79           77-79.5

MCH         74-75               73.5-74.5

MAY          72-73               71-72.5

JLY              72-73               71-72

AUG5        72-77               72-76

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ABN bot 100 Oct/Dec crush at 4
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE