From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 8-20-14

News:

 

China seeking new crop US soybean cargoes today for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Today was the 3rd day of the ProFarmer crop tour. Tour ends tomorrow. Some highlights from the tour

  • Southwest Iowa average corn yield estimated at 167.0 BPA vs. 165.0 BPA a year ago
  • Southwest Iowa average bean pod count at 889 pods
  • On the second route in southwest Iowa average corn yield estimated at 185.0 BPA vs. 160.0 BPA a year ago
  • On the second route of southwest Iowa average bean pod counts at 1,252 pods vs. 1,100 pods a year ago
  • West central Illinois estimated corn yield at 194 BPA vs. 172 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 152.0 BPA
  • West central Illinois estimated bean pod count at 1,081 pods vs, 1,140 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,142 pods

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn planting area at 3.2 MH down 10% from ‘13/14

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 grain exports at 6.0 – 8.0 MMT

 

Jordan bought 100,000 tons of optional origin hard wheat for December shipment

 

Rains moved across Iowa this morning.

 

The Feds released the minutes from the 2 day FOMC policy meeting that took place on July 29-30th today at 1 pm CST. Some headlines off of Reuters

  • FED POLICYMAKERS IN JULY FELT U.S. LABOR MARKET PROGRESS HAD BEEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED, BROUGHT CONDITIONS “NOTICEABLY CLOSER” TO NORMAL – FOMC MINUTES
  • MOST FED POLICYMAKERS WANTED MORE EVIDENCE BEFORE CHANGING RATE HIKE VIEWS, SOME FELT “RELATIVELY PROMPT” MOVE WARRANTED
  • MOST FOMC PARTICIPANTS FELT USE OF OVERNIGHT REVERSE REPOS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY, LIMITED IN SCOPE
  • MANY FOMC MEMBERS FELT CHARACTERIZATION OF “SIGNIFICANT” LABOR MARKET SLACK MAY HAVE TO CHANGE BEFORE LONG
  • ALMOST ALL FED POLICYMAKERS AGREED TO KEEP FED FUNDS RATE AS KEY RATE, CONTINUE TO TARGET 25 BASIS POINTS RANGE
  • FED POLICYMAKERS AGREED INTEREST ON EXCESS RESERVES WOULD BE MAIN TOOL TO MOVE FED FUNDS RATE
  • FOMC PARTICIPANTS AGREED FED’S BALANCE SHEET SHOULD BE REDUCED GRADUALLY, PREDICTABLY, EVENTUALLY BE MAINLY TREASURIES
  • MOST FOMC PARTICIPANTS SUPPORTED REDUCING OR ENDING PORTFOLIO REINVESTMENTS AFTER FIRST RATE HIKE, DON’T WANT TO SELL MBS
  • FOMC PARTICIPANTS DISAGREED OVER HOW MUCH SLACK REMAINED IN LABOR MARKET, MANY FELT JOBLESS RATE UNDERSTATED SLACK
  • SEVERAL PARTICIPANTS FELT UPSIDE INFLATION RISKS HAD NOT INCREASED, A FEW OTHERS FELT THEY HAD

Nov beans made a new contract low of 1036 ½

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low of 3276

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 4,000
  • Corn sold 5,000
  • Beans sold 5,000
  • Meal sold 3,000
  • Bean bought 2,000

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrowat 730 am CST Expecting
    • Wheat 350 – 550,000 tons
    • Corn old crop 0-150,000 tons, new crop 650 -850,000 tons
    • Beans old crop 0-100,000 tons, new crop 850,000 -1.05 M tons
    • Meal old crop 50-125,000 tons , new crop 150-250,000 tons
    • Bean oil 0-20,000 tons
  • Stats Canada comes out tomorrowat 730 am with their Canada 2014 crop estimates. Based on a Reuters report expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 28.5 MMT , range of estimates 26.2-34.5 MMT . Ag Canada July estimate was 27.74 MMT. 2013 all wheat crop was 37.5296
    • Durum average estimate 5.2 MMT, range of estimates 4.9-5.5 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 5.04 MMT. 2013 durum wheat crop was 6.5045 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 14.5 MMT, range of estimates are 13.8 -15.1 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 14.45 MMT. 2013 canola crop was 17.9601 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.0 MMT , range of estimates are 2.6-4.3 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 3.04 MMT. 2013 oat crop was 3.888 MMT
    • Barley average estimate 7.5 MMT , range of estimates are 7.0-8.4 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 7.34 MMT. 2013 barley crop was 10.2371 MMT
    • Flax average estimate .795 MMT, range of estimates are .750-.827 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was .825 MMT. 2013 flax crop was .7123 MMT
    • Corn average estimate 11.5 MMT, range of estimates are 10.7-12.0 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 11.305 MMT. 2013 corn crop was 14.1938 MMT
    • Beans average estimate 6.1 MMT, range of estimates are 5.8-6.3 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 6.10 MMT. 2013 soybean crop was 5.1984 MMT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +84 BCF
  • Flash Aug mfg PMIs come out on Thursday and Friday.
  • Tomorrow is the last day of the ProFarmer Midwest crop tour. They will be surveying crops in Minnesota and the rest of Iowa
  • Final estimates from the tour come out on Friday, not sure what time, but heard after the grain close.

 

Open outcry option players

  • FI bought 1,000 Oct soybean 1020 puts at 13.75 and bought 300 Nov futures at 1050
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Oct 980 puts sold 1,000 Oct 1080 calls at 17 ¼ and sold 160 Nov futures at 1046
  • FI sold 1,500 Sept short dated soybean 1060/1000 put spreads at 19-19 ½
  • Bunge sold 1,000 July 2015 soybean 1100 calls and bought 1,000 Nov 2014 1100 calls at 38 ½-39 ½ credit
  • Bunge bought 3,000 Nov bean 980 puts and sold 300 July bean 960 puts at 13-14 credit
  • Rand sold 1,200 Nov bean 1160 puts at 112 and sold 1,080 Nov futures at 1048
  • ABN bought 1,000 Oct soybean 1020/1000 put spreads at 6 ½
  • ICAP bought 2,500 Nov corn 350 puts at 6 5/8
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Dec corn 350 calls at 24 ½
  • ICAP bought 1,000 March corn 400-440 call spreads and sold 1,000 March corn 340 puts at 1 ½ credit
  • FI sold 1,000 Dec 2015 corn 400 puts and bought 400 Nov 2015 bean 1100 puts
  • ABN bought 500 Oct wheat 580 calls at 10 tied to futures at 560
  • FI sold 1,500 Oct soymeal 340/360 call spreads at 10.60-11.00
  • ADM bought 1,000 Dec meal 340 puts at 11.50
  • RJO sold 500 week 2 soymeal 360 puts at 10.00
  • RJO sold 500 week 2 soymeal 355 puts at 5.00
  • FI bought 800 Dec bean oil 35 puts at 225-230
  • JP Morgan sold 500 Dec bean oil 33 puts at 67-68
  • Rosenthal bought 300 Dec bean oil 33.5-35 call spreads and sold 300 Dec bean oil 32 puts at even money
  • ADM sold 10 March crush 70 calls at 5.5

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

U vol 24 ½ 360 str 6-6 ½

V vol 21 ¼ 370 str 20-20 ¼

X vol 21 370 str 26 ¼ -26 ¾

Z vol 20 ¾ 370 str 30 ¾-31

H vol 20 380 str 42 ¾-43 ¾

K vol 20 390 str 50 ½-52

N vol 20 ½ 400 str 59 ½-61

Z15 vol 20 ½ 410 str 73 ½-74 ½

 

Beans

U vol 23 1120 str 17 ½-19

V vol 19 ½ 1040 str 51-53

X vol 19 ¼ 1040 str 67 ½-69 ½

F vol 18 1060 str 88-91

H vol 17 ¾ 1060 str 104-107

 

Wheat

U vol 32 540 str 12-14

Z vol 23 ½ 550 str 51-53

H vol 22 570 str 70-73

K vol 21 ¼ 580 str 79-81

N vol 20 ¾ 590 str 89-91

 

KC wheat

U vol 28 ½ 620 str 12-14

Z vol 22 630 str 54-57

H vol 20 ¼ 640 str 71-76

K vol 19 ¾ 640 str 80-85

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 22 ½ 610 str 9-12

Z vol 18 ¼ 620 str 43-48

H vol 17 ½ 630 str 57-63

 

Meal

U vol 25 400 str 6-11

V vol 21.5 350 str 19-21

Z vol 20.25 340 str 29-31

F vol 19.5 340 str 30.5-33.5

H vol 18.5 340 str 35.5-38.0

 

Bean oil

U vol 18 33 str 35-50

V vol 16.75 33 str 135-150

Z vol 16.75 33 str 215-230

F vol 16.75 33.5 str 250-275

H vol 16.5 33.5 str 300-330


Crush quotes

 

OPEN                   CLOSE

SEP             1.185-1.215       1.25-1.28

OCT            1.00-1.01           1.005-1.02

DEC             86-86.5              84.5-85

JAN             76.5-77.5           74.5-77

MCH           68.5-69               67-68.5

MAY            66-67.5              65-67

JLY               66-67                  65-67

AUG           66-72                  67-69.5

SEP5           81-86                  80-85

 

Crush and oil share pit players

  • ADM sold 100 Sept/Oct/Oct crush at 10-14
  • RJO bought 200 Dec crush at 84-85
  • Tenco sold 20 Oct crush at 1.005
  • ABN sold Dec oil share 120 oil/ 80 meal at 32.20-32.35%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE