From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 8-15-14

News:

 

Argentina Ag Min weekly Argentina crop progress report

  • ‘14/15 wheat planting is 95% complete vs. 99% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘14/15 wheat planting area at 4.516 MH
  • ‘13/14 bean harvest is 99% complete vs. 100% complete a year ago
  • ‘13/14 corn harvest is 89% complete vs. 99% a year ago

 

COPA said Canadian crushers crushed 135,017 tons of canola for the week ending Aug 13th up 2.9% from a week ago

 

COPA said Canadian crushers crushed 15,266 tons of soybeans for the week ending Aug 13th down 9.1% from a week ago

 

Russia Ag min said as of Aug 15th Russia has harvested 62.1 MMT of grain on 19.6 MH with an average yield of 3.17 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 49.4 MMT of grain on 18.7 MH with an average yield of 2.64 TPH

 

Increasing Russian/Ukraine tensions – Ukraine headlines from Reuters

  • Ukrainian military spokesman said Ukraine forces engaged Russian armored column on Ukrainian soil and part of it no longer exists
  • Ukrainian military spokesman said Ukrainian forces had tracked Russian armored column after it crossed border into Ukraine.
  • Ukranian president Poroshenko tells British PM that Ukrainian artillery destroyed part of Russian armored equipment which crossed the border during the night

 

Philippines said farm output in Jan-June up 1.8% from a year ago

 

Philippines said rice output in Jan-June up 4.8% from a year ago

 

Iraq canceled tender for 30K rice .

 

Dec bean oil made new contract lows today of 3318

 

Weekly COT supplemental report. Large spec positions as of Aug 12th. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 76,639
  • KC wheat short 5,889
  • Corn short 16,131
  • Beans short 49,014
  • Meal long 19,717
  • Bean oil short 18,830

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 5,000
  • Corn bought 7,000
  • Beans sold 3,000
  • Meal bought 1,500
  • Bean oil sold 3,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Dec rice and Chicago, KC, and Minneapolis wheat will be top step (spot month) Sunday night/ Monday
  • Argentina is on holiday on Monday
  • ProFarmer US Midwest  crop tour begins on Monday and ends on Thursday. Estimates from the tour will come out daily and final estimates from the tour will come out on Thursday afternoon.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST. Expecting

o   Corn good to excellent conditions unchanged from a week ago of 73% good to excellent

o   Bean good to excellent conditions unchanged to 1% higher than a week ago , a week ago beans were rated 70% good to excellent

o   Spring wheat good to excellent conditions unchanged from a week ago of 70% good to excellent.

  • Stats Canada comes out on Thursday at 730 am with their Canada 2014 crop estimates. Based on a Reuters report expecting

o   All wheat average estimate 28.5 MMT , range of estimates 26.2-34.5 MMT . Ag Canada July estimate was 27.74 MMT. 2013 all wheat crop was 37.5296

o   Durum average estimate 5.2 MMT, range of estimates 4.9-5.5 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 5.04 MMT. 2013 durum wheat crop was 6.5045 MMT

o   Canola average estimate 14.5 MMT, range of estimates are 13.8 -15.1 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 14.45 MMT. 2013 canola crop was 17.9601 MMT

o   Oats average estimate 3.0 MMT , range of estimates are 2.6-4.3 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 3.04 MMT. 2013 oat crop was 3.888 MMT

o   Barley average estimate 7.5 MMT , range of estimates are 7.0-8.4 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 7.34 MMT. 2013 barley crop was 10.2371 MMT

o   Flax average estimate .795 MMT, range of estimates are .750-.827 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was .825 MMT. 2013 flax crop was .7123 MMT

o   Corn average estimate 11.5 MMT, range of estimates are 10.7-12.0 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 11.305 MMT. 2013 corn crop was 14.1938 MMT

o   Beans average estimate 6.1 MMT, range of estimates are 5.8-6.3 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 6.10 MMT. 2013 soybean crop was 5.1984 MMT

  • On Thursday Eurozone flash mfg PMI comes out
  • On Friday China’s HSBC flash mfg PMI comes out

 

Open outcry option players:

  • JP Morgan bought 2,000 Nov bean 960 puts at 6 1/8 – 6 ¼ and b ought 260 Nov futures at 1060
  • ADM bought 1,000 Oct bean 1030 puts at 18
  • RJO sold 600 Oct bean 1020 puts at 14 ½ and sold 192 Nov futures 1055
  • FI bought 3,000 Sept corn 370 calls at 3 3/8 and sold 1,200 Sept futures at 366 ¾
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March corn 400 calls at 18 5/8
  • FI bought 4,000 Dec corn 360/340 put spreads at 4 ¾
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Sept short dated corn 360 puts at 5/8 and bought 80 Dec futures at 377
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec corn 350 calls at 32 ¾ -33
  • ABN bought 2,500 May corn 430 puts and sold 2,500 March corn 430 puts at a ½ debit
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Dec corn 380 straddles at 31 5/8 -31 ¾ and bought 30 Dec futures at 377
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Dec wheat 600 calls and sold 2,000 Dec wheat 510 puts at 23 ¼ -24
  • ABN sold 500 Dec wheat 510 puts at 7 ½ tied to Dec futures at 549
  • Macquarie bought 500 Dec wheat 560 straddles at 50 ¾ -51 tied to Dec futures at 562, 2 delta.
  • ICAP bought 500 March wheat 570 straddles at 67 ½-69 ½
  • FI bought 400 Oct meal 340 calls at 23.50 and sold 400 Nov bean futures at 1055.
  • JP Morgan sold 2,400 Dec bean oil 35-32.5 put spreads at 137 tied to Dec futures at  3345, 34 delta
  • JP Morgan sold 500 Dec bean oil 32 puts at 55-60

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

U vol 22 ½ 365 str 9 ¼-10

V vol 22 380 str 21 ¼-22 ¼

X vol 21 380 str 27 ½-28 ½

Z vol 20 ¾ 380 str 32 ¼-33

H vol 20 ¼ 390 str 44 ¾ -45 ¾

K vol 20 400 str 52 ½ -54

N vol 20 ½ 410 str 61 -62 ½

Z15 str 20 ¼ 420 str 75 ½-76 ½

 

Beans:

U vol 22 1100 str 28-30

V vol 19 ½ 1060 str 55 ½-56 ½

X vol 18 ¾ 1060 str 68 ½-69 ½

F vol 18 1060 str 90-92

H vol 17 ¾ 1080 str 107-109

 

Wheat:

U vol 29 550 str 18-20

Z vol 21 ½ 560 str 49-51

H vol 20 ¾ 580 str 67-69

K vol 19 ¾ 600 str 78-80

N vol 19 ¾ 600 str 86-89

 

KC wheat:

U vol 25 ½ 620 str 18-20

Z vol 20 ¾ 640 str 55-57

H vol 19 ½ 640 str 70-72

K vol 19 650 str 80-83

 

Minneapolis  wheat:

U vol 22 610 str 13-19

Z vol 18 620 str 43-49

H vol 18 630 str 32-38

K vol 19 640 str 77-87

N vol 19 650 str 85-95

 

Meal:

U vol 25 390 str 12.5-14.5

V vol 21.5 360 str 22-24

Z vol 20.5 350 str 31-33

F vol 19.5 350 str 33-35

H vol 18.5 350 str 37-39

 

Bean oil:

U vol 18 33 str 55-70

V vol 17.25 33 str 145-160

Z vol 17.25 33 str 225-245

F vol 17.25 33.5 str 265-285

H vol 17 34 str 315-340

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                CLOSE

SEP         1.10-1.14        1.11-1.15

OCT        96-97                97-98

DEC        90.5-91            90-91.5

JAN        78.5-79.5         80.5-82

MCH      70-71                72-73.5

MAY       67-69               68.5-70

JLY          66.5-68            67.5-69

AUG       67-73               69-74

SEP5       82-86               82-86

 

Crush and oil share open outcry players:

  • ABN sold 200 Dec/Jan crush at 11
  • ABN sold 80 Sept crush at 1.13
  • ABN sold 50 March crush at 70.75
  • RJO bought 450 Jan crush 80-80.75
  • Tenco sold 20 Oct crush 97.5
  • Rosenthal bought 100 Dec oil/sold 70 Dec meal at 32.30-32.32%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE