From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 8-07-14

News:

 

A Ukrainian military plane was shot down by militants near Yenakievo, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, on Thursday, a Ukrainian government counter-terrorism official said- CNN

 

Japan bought 154,245 tons of food wheat for Sept –Oct shipment. Breakdown

  • 15,060 tons of US western white wheat
  • 47,800 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 57,775 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 33,610 tons of Australian white wheat

 

South Korea MFG bought 110,000 tons of optional origin corn for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out today at 930 am CST at +82 BCF expecting +84 BCF.

 

FAO estimates

  • ‘14/15 global cereals output estimated at 2.498 billion tons up 18 million tons from previous estimate
  • ‘14/15 global wheat crop estimated at 707.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 702.7 MMT
  • ‘14/15 global cereals ending stocks at 604.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 576.0 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Brazil’s Jan – June 2014 biodiesel production at 1.3 MMT vs. 1.2 MMT a year ago .

  • Feedstocks use for biodiesel production at

o   Bean oil use at 980,000 tons vs. 910,000 tons a year ago

o   Cotton oil use at 20,000 vs. 30,000 tons a year ago

o   Tallow/grease use at 270,000 tons vs. 240,000 tons a year ago

o   Other oils use at 50,000 tons unchanged from previous estimate

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s 2014 biodiesel production at 2.6 MMT vs. 2.0 MMT in 2013

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s 2014 biodiesel exports at 1.6 MMT vs. 1.1 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s 2014 biodiesel domestic use at 1.0 MMT vs. 885,000 tons in 2013.

 

Oil World estimated India’s Oct 2013-July 2014 soybean meal exports at 2.5 MMT vs. 3.8 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated India’s Oct 2013- July 2014 rapeseed meal exports at 1.2 MMT vs. 861,000 tons a year ago

 

Oil World estimated EU28 2014 rapeseed output at 23.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.7 MMT and vs. 2013 output of 21.3 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Germany’s 2014 rapeseed output at 6.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.9 MMT and vs. 2013 output of 5.8 MMT

 

Oil World estimated France 2014 rapeseed output at 5.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.2 MMT and vs. 2013 output of 4.4 MMT

 

Oil World estimated UK 2014 rapeseed output at 2.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 2.1 MMT in 2013

 

Oil World estimated Poland’s 2014 rapeseed output at 2.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.8 MMT and vs. 2013 output of 2.8 MMT

 

Argentina Ag Min ‘13/14 farmer’s selling as of July 30th

  • 64.79% of Argentina wheat crop has been sold vs. 96.93% a year ago
  • 58.05% of Argentina corn crop has been sold vs. 72.79% a year ago
  • 51.10% of the Argentina bean crop has been sold vs. 51.40% a year ago

 

Informa ‘14/15 world crop estimates from Tuesday

  • Global wheat crop estimated at 717.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 708.9 MMT and vs. 713.9 MMT in ‘13/14

o   US crop estimated at 54.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 53.3 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 58.0 MMT

o   Russia crop estimated at 56.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 51.0 MMT and vs. 52.1 MMT in ‘13/14

o   Ukraine crop estimated at 22.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.0 MMT and vs. 22.3 MMT in ‘13/14

o   Kazakhstan crop estimated at 15.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 14.5 MMT and vs. 13.9 MMT in ‘13/14

o   Canada crop estimated at 26.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 28.3 MMT and vs. 37.5 MMT in ‘13/14

o   Australia crop estimated at 26.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 27.0 MMT in ‘13/14

o   Pakistan crop estimated at 24.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 24.0 MMT a year ago

o   Brazil crop estimated at 7.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 5.5 MMT a year ago

o   Argentina crop estimated at 13.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 10.0 in ‘13/14

o   China crop estimated at 124.9 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 121.9 MMT

  • Global corn crop estimated at 986.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 974.3 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 986.7 MMT

o   US crop estimated at 355.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 348.8 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 353.7 MMT

o   Brazil crop estimated at 72.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 72.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 78.1 MMT

o   EU28 crop estimated at 67.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 66.4 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 64.6 MMT

o   Ukraine crop estimated at 28.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 27.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 30.9 MMT

o   China crop estimated at 222.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 220.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 218.5 MMT

o   Argentina crop estimated at 26.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 26.0 MMT in ‘13/14

o   Mexico crop estimated at 22.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 21.9 MMT in ‘13/14

  • Global bean crop estimated at 302.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 283.4 MMT in ‘13/14

o   US crop estimated at 100.7 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 89.5 MMT a year ago

o   Brazil bean crop estimated at 89.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 86.3 MMT in ‘13/14

o   Argentine bean crop estimated at 55.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 54.0 MMT in ‘13/14

o   China bean crop estimated at 12.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 12.0 MMT in ‘13/14

o   India bean crop estimated at 11.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.0 MMT and vs. 11.9 MMT in ‘13/14

  • Global rapeseed output estimated at 69.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 69.5 MMT and vs. 71.9 MMT in ‘13/14

o   Canada crop estimated at 14.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 15.4 MMT and vs. 18.0 MMT in ‘13/14

o   EU28 crop estimated at 22.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.0 MMT and vs. 21.2 MMT in ‘13/14

o   India crop estimated at 7.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 8.0 MMT in ‘13/14

o   China crop estimated at 14.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 14.4 MMT a year ago

  • Global sunflower production estimated at 41.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 40.3 MMT and vs. 42.9 MMT in ‘13/14

o   Russia production estimated at 10.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.6 MMT and vs. 10.6 MMT in ‘13/14

o   EU 28 production estimated at 7.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.1 MMT and vs. 8.7 MMT in ‘13/14

o   Ukraine production estimated at 10.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 11.6 MMT in ‘13/14

o   Argentine crop estimated at 2.9 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 2.3 MMT a year ago

 

NATO’s Rasmussen spoke on Russia:

Called on Russian to “step back from the brink, step back from the border

and not use peacekeeping as an excuse for war-making”

“Russia, instead of de-escalating conflict, continues to destabilize Ukraine,

Its support for separatists grows ‘in scale and sophistication’”

Downing of Malaysian airliner was result of Russia’s “reckless” support for separatists” – Reuters

 

France customs data showed that France exported 12.2 MMT of soft wheat outside the EU in ‘13/14 up 23% from ‘12/13

 

France exported 5.7 MMT of soft wheat to Algeria in ‘13/14 up 44% from ‘12/13

 

France ‘13/14 soft wheat exports within the EU was 6.8 MMT down 5% from ‘12/13

 

France ‘13/14 total soft wheat exports were 19.1 MMT up 12% from ‘12/13

 

Week ending Aug 6th India monsoon rains were 18% above normal vs. 9% below average in the week prior.

 

Today is the first day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They are rolling long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into Dec. In the last minute of trade

  • Corn pit = 750 Sept/Dec corn spreads traded at  -11 ¾
  • Corn electronic= 18,869 Sept/Dec corn spreads traded at  – 11 ½ and -11 ¾
  • Wheat pit =  580 Sept/Dec wheat spreads traded at  -18
  • Wheat electronic=   9,321 Sept/Dec wheat spreads traded at  -17 to -18
  • KC wheat pit =    90 Sept/Dec KC wheat spreads traded at  -13 ½ to -13 ¾
  • KC wheat electronic=  2,568 Sept/Dec KC wheat spreads traded at  -13 ¼ to -13 ¾

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat – sold 2K
  • Corn –  sold 3K
  • Beans –  sold 2K
  • Meal –  sold 1K
  • Bean oil – sold 1K

 

Open outcry option players:    Very quiet on the trading floor today.

  • Cunningham sold 800 Sept short dated soybean 1060/1030 put spreads at 8 ½ .
  • Advantage bought 1,500 Oct bean 1090 calls at 28 3/8 – 28 ½ and sold 660 Nov futures at 1074
  • ADM sold 600 Nov 1120 straddles at 90 ¼
  • ADM sold 1,000 week 3 corn 360 calls at 5 ¾
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Oct corn 330 puts at 2 1/8 and bought 100 Dec futures at 370
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec wheat 650 calls at 10 ¼ tied to futures at 581
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 March wheat 500 puts at 5 ¼
  • Bunge sold 500 Dec wheat 650 calls at 9 ¾
  • RJO bought 300 Oct meal 410 calls at .75
  • RJO bought 200 Oct bean oil 42.5 calls at 4

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • China’s July trade balance report comes out tonight/early tomorrow morning.
  • Tomorrow is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. 3 days remain
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

 

USDA August crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Tuesday at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for USDA report.

 

Estimates for US 2014 corn and bean production

  • Corn production (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.253 BB range of estimates are 13.988 – 14.778 BB. July WASDE estimate was 13.86 BB and 2013 final corn production was 13.925 BB
  • Corn yield (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 170.098 BPA, range of estimates are 168-174.8 BPA. July WASDE estimate was 165.3 BPA and 2013 final corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Bean production (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.823 BB, range of estimates are 3.70-3.951 BB. July WASDE estimate was 3.8 BB and 2013 final bean production was 3.289 BB
  • Bean yield (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 45.583 BPA, range of estimates are 44.5-47.0 BPA. July WASDE estimate was 45.2 BPA and 2013 final bean yield was 43.3 BPA

 

Estimates for US 2014 wheat production

  • All wheat production (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.010 BB, range of estimates are 1.986 -2.068 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.992 BB and 2013 all wheat production was 2.130 BB
  • All winter wheat production (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.372 BB, range of estimates are 1.358-1.413 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.367 BB and 2013 all winter wheat production was 1.534 BB.
  • Hard red winter wheat production (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .707 BB, range of estimates are .694-.752 BB. USDA July estimate was .703 BB and 2013 hard red winter wheat production was .744 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat production (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .461 BB, range of estimates are .452-.474 BB. USDA July estimate was .458 BB and 2013 soft red winter wheat production was .565 BB.
  • White winter wheat production (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .204 BB, range of estimates are .197-.209 BB. USDA July estimate was .206 BB and 2013 white winter wheat production was .225 BB
  • Other spring wheat production (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .579 BB, range of estimates are .562-.634 BB. July USDA estimate was .565 BB and 2013 other spring wheat production was .534 BB
  • Durum wheat production (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .060 BB, range of estimates are .053-.065 BB. July USDA estimate was .060 BB and 2013 durum wheat production was .062 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.240 BB , range of estimates are 1.196 – 1.356 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.246 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .136 BB, range of estimates are .125-.142 BB. USDA July estimate was .140 BB

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .663 BB, range of estimates are .557-.744 BB. USDA July estimate was .660 BB.
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.005 BB, range of estimates are 1.777-2.203 BB. USDA July estimate was 1.801 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .414 BB, range of estimates are .309-.492 BB. USDA July estimate was .415 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 184.25 MMT , range of estimates are 181.55 – 187.09 MMT. USDA July estimate was 184.29 MMT
  • Corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 172.85 MMT, range of estimates are 166.07-175.00 MMT . USDA July estimate was 173.42 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 67.32 MMT, range of estimates are 67.0-68.53 MMT. USDA July estimate was 67.24 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 190.41 MMT, range of estimates are 186.21-195.40 MMT. USDA July estimate was 189.54 MMT
  • Corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 192.53 MMT, range of estimates are 185.40-208.34 MMT. USDA July estimate was 188.05 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 85.90 MMT, range of estimates are 84.02-88.75 MMT. USDA July estimate was 85.31 MMT

 

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

U vol 27 360 str 16 ½-17 ¼

V vol 24 ¾ 370 str 26 ½-27 ½

X vol 24 370 str 32 ½-33 ½

Z vol 23 ¾ 370 str 37-37 ½

H vol 21 ¾ 380 str 48 ½ -49 ¼

N vol 21 ¾ 400 str 64 ½-65 ½

Z15 vol 21 ½ 410 str 78-80

 

Beans:

U vol 24 ¼ 1100 str 44-45

V vol 22 ¾ 1080 str 72 ¼-74

X vol 21 ½ 1080 str 84-85 ½

F vol 19 1080 101 ½-103 ½

H vol 18 ½ 1100 str 116-119

 

Wheat:

U vol 30 560 str 28-29

Z vol 24 580 str 58-60

H vol 22 600 str 76-78

K vol 21 610 str 85-87

 

KC wheat:

U vol 27 ½ 650 str 29-31

Z vol 22 660 str 61-64

H vol 20 ¾ 670 str 78-82

K vol 20 680 str 87-93

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 25 640 str 24-28

Z vol 20 650 str 53-59

H vol 19 660 str 69-79

 

Meal:

U vol 28.75 360 str 15.5-17.5

V vol 24.75 350 str 24.5-26.5

Z vol 23.25 350 str 33-35

F vol 21.25 350 str 35-37

H vol 20.25 350 str 39-41

K vol 18 350 str 42-44

 

Bean oil:

U vol 18 3550 str 95-110

V vol 18 36 str 180-190

Z vol 17.5 36 str 255-270

F vol 17.25 36 str 290-310

H vol 17 36.5 str 345-380

K vol 16.75 36.5 str 390-420

N vol 16.75 3650 str 430-470

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN               CLOSE

AUG       5-15                 EV-10

SEP         92-95               93-95

OCT        87-88               86-88

DEC        83.5-84.5        83-83.5

JAN        76-77               73.5-73.75

MCH      73-73.75         70.5-72

MAY      71-72               67-70.5

JLY          71.71.5           69-70.5

AUG5    70.5-73          69-72

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • Rosenthal sold 100 Dec oil/meal at 34.15
  • RJO bought 100 Dec crush at 83

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE