From the Floor- An Afternoon Recap 7/31/14

News:

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out this morning at 930 am CST at +88 BCF expecting +92 BCF

 

Pakistan bought 60,000 tons of sunflower see from Black Sea region for Sept-Nov shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 184,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Sept –Nov shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 125,000 tons of optional origin barley for Sept-Nov shipment

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s July palm oil exports at 1,353,516 tons down 2.8% from June. Surveyor SGS will estimate July exports on Monday

 

South Korea bought 94,812 tons of optional origin rice for Oct-Dec shipment

 

Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin wheat

 

China’s Ministry of Commerce estimates

  • China’s July bean imports at 5.87 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.05 MMT
  • China’s Aug bean imports at 3.84 MMT.
  • China’s July bean oil imports at 161,100 tons
  • China’s Aug bean oil imports at 25,000 tons
  • China’s July palm oil imports at 384,200 tons
  • China’s Aug palm oil imports at 25,300 tons
  • China’s July rapeseed imports at 478,000 tons
  • China’s Aug rapeseed imports at 163,200 tons
  • China’s July rapeseed oil imports at 37,600 tons
  • China’s Aug rapeseed oil imports at 3,800 tons

 

Argentina Ag Min- As of July 23rd

  • Argentine farmers have sold 64.03% of their wheat crop vs. 96.20% a year ago
  • Argentine farmers have sold 53.47% of their corn crop vs. 71.07% a year ago
  • Argentine farmers have sold 49.23% of their bean crop vs. 57.2%

 

Canadian wheat tour final estimates- Canada scouts surveyed crops Monday –today

  • 2014 Western Canada 2014 spring wheat yields at 43.1 BPA vs. 53.0 BPA a year ago (record)
  • 2014 Western Canada 2014 durum wheat yields at 48.1 BPA vs. 48.4 BPA a year ago
  • 2014 Western Canada 2014 canola yields at 34.3 BPA vs. 40.0 BPA a year ago
  • Said Western Canada wheat seen with high quality potential , likely high protein.

 

IGC ‘14/15 crop estimates

  • World wheat crop estimated at 702.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 699.0 MMT and vs. 710.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Russia wheat crop estimated at 55.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 51.0 MMT and vs. 52.1 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Ukraine wheat crop estimated at 21.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.0 MMT and vs. 22.3 MMT in ‘13/14
  • World corn crop estimated at 969 MMT vs. previous estimate of 963.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 974.0 MMT (record)
  • US corn crop estimated at 353.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 350.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 353.7 MMT
  • Indonesia corn crop estimated at 9.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.0 MMT
  • India corn crop estimated at 22.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.5 MMT
  • World corn consumption estimated at 951.0 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 950.0 MMT and vs. 937.0 MMT in ‘13/14
  • World soybean production estimated at 304.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 300.0 MMT and vs. 282.0 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Russia has banned soy imports from the Ukraine and may impose restrictions on Greek fruits and US poultry next week, Russian news agencies reported today , in what could be responses to new Western sanctions –Reuters

  • Ukraine exported 141,000 tons of beans to Russia in 2013

 

USDA attaché in Indonesia estimated ‘14/15 palm oil output at 33.5 MMT vs. 31.0 MMT in ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Indonesia estimated ‘14/15 palm oil exports at 22.0 MMT vs. 20.4 MMT in ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Indonesia estimated ‘14/15 palm oil domestic use at 11.3 MMT vs. 9.4 MMT in ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Indonesia estimated ‘14/15 palm oil ending stocks at 3.2 MMT vs. 3.1 MMT in ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Indonesia estimated ‘14/15 corn production at 9.2 MMT vs. 9.1 MMT in ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Indonesia estimated ‘14/15 corn imports at 2.6 MMT vs. 3.1 MMT in ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Indonesia estimated ‘14/15 corn domestic use at 11.9 MMT vs. 11.8 MMT in ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Indonesia estimated ‘14/15 corn ending stocks at 1.3 MMT vs. 1.4 MMT in ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Turkey estimated ‘14/15 wheat crop at 15.0 MMT vs. 18 MMT in ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Turkey estimated ‘14/15 wheat harvested area at 7.7 MH unchanged from a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Turkey estimated ‘14/15 wheat imports at 5.5 MMT vs. 4.1 MMT a year ago

 

CEC estimated 2014 wheat planting area at 484,000 hectares vs. 2013 area of 506,000 hectares

 

India’s Agriculture Commissioner estimated 2014 India’s oilseed planting area at 15-16 MH (12 year low) vs. 19.8 MH a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 2.03 MMT of grain in July vs. 853,800 tons in June

 

ProZerno estimated Russia’s  ‘14/15 grain crop at 102.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 98.9 MMT. Including

  • Wheat crop estimated at 58.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.0 MMT
  • Barley crop estimated at 18.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 17.8 MMT
  • Corn crop estimated at 12.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.0 MMT

 

US EPA extends compliance deadline for 2013 biofuel mandate, previous deadline was Sept 30th  – Reuters.

 

Yesterday Green Plains estimated 2015 US ethanol exports at 800 million to 1 billion gallons.

 

Rains in forecast for US Midwest next week

 

India monsoon rains still about 22% below average

 

European what futures fell to a four year low today, due to concerns that the outlook for exports may be dented by the low quality of some crops –Reuters

 

French wheat may not be good enough for Algerian exports said ADM Germany (formally Toepfer International)

 

Today was the second day of the Roger’s Roll. Roll ends tomorrow. They are rolling long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into Dec. Last minute activity

  • Sept/Dec corn spread – pit = 300 contracts traded at -10
  • Sept/Dec corn spread – screen = 8,096 contracts traded at -10 to -9 ¾
  • Sept/Dec wheat spread – pit = 152 contracts traded at -20 ¾
  • Sept/Dec wheat spread – screen = 5,493 contracts traded at -20 ¾ to -19 ¾
  • Sept/Dec KC wheat spread – pit = 27 contracts traded at -13 ½
  • Sept/Dec KC wheat spread – screen = 1,065 contracts traded at -13 ½ to -12 ¾

 

I didn’t add this to my afternoon recap yesterday but last minute activity yesterday was

  • Sept/Dec corn spread – pit = 831 contracts traded at -9 ¾
  • Sept/Dec corn spread – screen = 8,151 contracts traded at -9 ¾ to -9 ½
  • Sept/Dec wheat spread – pit = 412 contracts traded at -22 ½ to -21 ¾
  • Sept/Dec wheat spread – screen = 3,367 contracts traded at -22 ½  to -21 ¾
  • Sept/Dec KC wheat spread – pit = 28 contracts traded at -15 ½
  • Sept/Dec KC wheat spread – screen = 693 contracts traded at -15 ½ to -15

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 1,500
  • Corn sold 6,000
  • Beans sold 2,000
  • Meal sold 1,000
  • Bean oil bought 1,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Final July PMIs for China, Eurozone, Germany, and France come out late tonight/tomorrow morning
  • Tomorrow is the beginning of a new month
  • US July unemployment comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

 

Open outcry option players:

  • New Edge bought 1,000 Nov bean 1020/1000 put spreads and sold 1,000 Sept bean 1060/1040 put spreads at 7/8 debit
  • ADM bought 2,000 Dec 450 calls at 1 7/8
  • ADM bought 1,000 Dec corn 470 calls at 1 ¼
  • FI bought 1,500 Dec corn 440/470 call spreads at 1 1/8
  • ABN bought 1,200 Dec corn 360 calls at 14 5/8 and bought 480 Dec corn futures at 367
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Dec corn 360 puts at 13 ¼ and sold 380 CZ futures at 370
  • FI sold 1,000 Sept short dated corn 400/360 put spreads at 26 ¼
  • ABN sold 500 Sept wheat 560 calls at 4 3/8-4 7/8 . 300 contracts were tied to futures at 527 and 200 contracts were tied to futures at 530. Delta is 20
  • Rosenthal sold 1,000 Dec wheat 490 puts at 6
  • JP Morgan sold 200 Dec meal 330 puts at 9.90 tied to futures at 349.20, 30 delta
  • Macquarie sold 300 July meal 330 puts at 13.60 tied to futures at  351.50, 32 delta
  • Jefferies bought 1,700 Dec bean oil 36 puts and sold 1,700 Oct bean oil 37 puts at 25 credit
  • Bunge bought 300 Dec bean oil 3550 puts at 100
  • New Edge bought 500 Oct bean oil 36-35 put spreads and sold 500 Dec bean oil 39.5 calls at even

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

U vol 24 ¾ 355 str 17 ¾-18 ¼

V vol 22 ¾ 365 str 26 ½-27

X vol 22 ¾ 365 str 32 ¼-32 ¾

Z vol 22 ¼ 370 str 36 ¼-36 ¾

H vol 21 ½ 380 str 48-49

N vol 21 ½ 390 str 63 ½-64 ½

Z15 vol 21 ¼ 410 str 77 ½-79

 

Beans:

U vol 24 ¾ 1100 str 54-56

V vol 23 ¾ 1080 str 80-83

X vol 22 ½ 1080 str 92-95

H vol 19 ¼ 1100 str 123-127

K vol 18 ½ 1100 str 135 ½-140

N vol 18 1100 str 144-148

 

Wheat:

U vol 27 ¼ 530 str 29-30

V vol 24 ½ 550 str 43-44

X vol 23 ½ 550 str 49 ½-50 ½

Z vol 22 ½ 550 str 54 ½-55 ½

H vol 21 570 str 70 ½-72 ½

K vol 20 ¼ 580 str 78 ½-81 ½

 

KC Wheat:

U vol 25 ¾ 630 str 33-34

Z vol 21 640 str 56-61

H vol 19 ¾ 640 str 73-76

K vol 18 ¾ 650 str 83-86

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 23 620 str 26-30

Z vol 19 630 str 50-55

H vol 18 ¼ 640 str 66-72

 

Meal:

U vol 28 360 str 20-22

V vol 24.5 350 str 37-39

Z vol 23.25 350 str 35.5-37

F vol 21.25 350 str 37.5-39

H vol 20.5 350 str 42-44

 

Bean oil:

U vol 18 36 str 125-140

V vol 18 36 str 200-220

Z vol 17.5 36.5 str 280-295

F vol 17.25 36.5 str 305-330

H vol 17 36.5 str 355-385

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN          CLOSE

AUG           20-25           25-35

SEP             92-94.5        91.5-94.5

OCT            90-91            89-91

DEC            86-86.5         84.5-86.5

JAN            77-78.5         77-78

MCH          74-75.5          74-75

MAY          73-74              71-73

JLY              73-74              71-73

AUG5         72-78.5         74-76

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ADM bought 10 Dec/Jan crush at 9
  • No oil share pit players today

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE