From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 7/30/14

News:

 

Correction –This morning I wrote KC Sept wheat made new contract lows of 611. This is incorrect the contract low is 608 ¾ made on January 29th

 

Today was the second day of the two day FOMC policy meeting . Headlines from the fed announcement at 1 pm CST today

  • *FED TAPERS BOND BUYING PROGRAM TO $25B MONTHLY PACE FROM $35B
  • *FED LEAVES FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0% TO 0.25%
  • *FED TAPERS BOND BUYING PROGRAM BY $10B
  • *FED PARES MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES BUYING TO $10B FROM $15B
  • *FED REDUCES MONTHLY TREASURY BOND PURCHASES TO $15B FROM $20B
  • *FED SAYS TAPER TO CONTINUE IN MEASURED STEPS IF OUTLOOK HOLDS
  • *FED REPEATS HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE POLICY REMAINS APPROPRIATE
  • *FED SEES RATES STAYING LOW FOR CONSIDERABLE TIME AFTER QE ENDS

 

Egypt GASC bought 175,000 tons of Russian wheat for Sept shipment

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2015 bean planting area at 31.213 MH vs. 2014 area of 29.887 MH

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2015 bean crop at 94.451 MMT vs. 2014 crop of 86.613 MMT

 

Argentina may default on debt tomorrow. Some reports out of Argentina are saying that there may be a last minute deal/agreement tonight, but some analysts are saying it is likely they will default.

 

Ukraine Weather Forecasters estimated 2014 corn crop at 29.0 MMT down 6% from 2013

 

DBV estimated Germany’s 2014 winter rapeseed crop at 5.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of and vs. 5.7 MMT in 2013

 

DBV said Germany’s wheat and rapeseed harvest is underway and rapeseed yields being reported at an average of 4.1 TPH vs. 3.9 TPH a year ago

 

DBV said rains in Germany is delaying wheat harvest and there are concerns about quality loses

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated 2014 grain crop at 17.0 MMT vs. 20.0 MMT in 2013

 

KazAgro estimated Kazakhstan’s 2014 grain crop at 18.0 MMT

 

Today was position day for August futures. Delivery expectations for tonight are:

  • Beans 0, there were 0 receipts registered as of yesterday’s afternoon
  • Soymeal 0, there were 0 receipts registered as of yesterday’s afternoon
  • Bean oil 300-700, there were 7,424 receipts registered as of yesterday’s afternoon

 

Today was the first day of the Rogers roll. Rogers roll ends on Friday. They are rolling long Sept corn wheat and KC wheat positions to Dec.

 

Canadian crop tour ends tomorrow.

 

Today was the last day of the  day annual US Grains Council meeting in Omaha NE

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 3K
  • Corn bought 3K
  • Beans sold 4K
  • Meal sold 2,500
  • Bean oil sold 1,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Tomorrow is month end
  • Tomorrow is first notice day for August futures
  • Surveyor Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s July palm oil exports tomorrow. Another surveyor SGS will put out their estimates on Monday.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST . Expecting
    • Wheat 350,000-550,000 tons
    • Corn 800,000 – 1.25 M tons
    • Beans 900,000- 1.3 M tons
    • Meal 550,000-750,000 tons
    • Bean oil 0-65,000 tons
    • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +92 BCF
    • Estimates from Canadian crop tour come out tomorrow afternoon

 

Open outcry option players:

  • ADM sold 800 Sept short dated bean 1080 straddles at 58
  • Drax bought 1,500 Nov bean 1100 puts at 17-17 ¼ and bought 330 Nov futures at 1085
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Nov bean 1200 calls at 10 ¼ ad bought 180 Nov futures at 1085
  • Mizuho bought 1,000 Sept short dated 1050 puts at 16-16 ½
  • Jefferies bought 4,400 Sept corn 360 puts and sold 8,800 Nov corn 340 puts at 2-2 ¼ credit
  • Rand bought 2,000 Sept corn 350 puts at 4 7/8
  • RJO sold 1,000 Oct corn 330 puts at 2 1/8
  • JP Morgan sold 3,000 March corn 400 puts at 16 ½- 16 ¾
  • ABN bought 600 Dec wheat 560 calls at 22 ¼ -22 ¾ tied to futures at 549 with a delta of 46
  • FI bought 700 Oct wheat 560 calls at 16 ¼ -17 tied to futures at 548 with a delta of 43.
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Sept wheat 530/570 call spreads at 10 ¼-10 ½
  • Macquarie sold 500 Aug meal 420 calls at 575 tied to futures at 353.00 with a delta of 16
  • No big bean oil option players today

 

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

U vol 24 ¾ 360 str 18 ½-19

V vol 22 ¾ 370 str 27-27 ½

X vol 22 ¾ 370 str 32 ¾-33 ¼

Z vol 22 ¼ 370 str 36 ¾-37 ¼

H vol 21 ½ 380 str 48 ¾-49 ¼

K vol 21 ½ 390 str 56 ½-57 ½

N vol 21 ¾ 400 str 64 ½-66

 

Beans:

U vol 25 ¼ 1100 str 55 ½ -57 ½

V vol 24 1080 str 82-85

X vol 22 ½ 1080 str 94-96

H vol 19 ¼ 1100 str 124-127

K vol 18 ½ 1100 str 136-140

N vol 17 ¾ 1120 str 143-147

 

Wheat:

U vol 27 ½ 530 str 30 ¼-30 ¾

V vol 24 ½ 550 str 43 ¼ -43 ¾

X vol 23 ¼ 550 str 49 ½-50 ½

Z vol 22 ½ 550 str 54 ½-55 ½

H vol 20 ¾ 570 str 70-72

K vol 20 ¼ 590 str 80-83

N vol 20 600 str 90-94

 

KC wheat:

U vol 26 ½ 620 str 32-35

Z vol 21 630 str 57-60

H vol 19 ¼ 640 str 72-76

K vol 19 640 str 80-86

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 21 610 str 25-29

Z vol 18 ¼ 620 str 48-52

H vol 17 630 str 62-68

 

Meal:

U vol 28 360 str 20.5-22

V vol 24.5 350 str 27-29

Z vol 23 350 str 35.50-37.50

F vol 21.25 350 str 37-39

H vol 20.25 350 str 42-44

 

Bean oil:

U vol 18 36 str 125-145

V vol 17.75 36 str 200-220

Z vol 17.5 36.5 str 275-295

F vol 17.25 36.5 str 310-330

H vol 17 37 str 370-390

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE