From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 5/07/2014

News

 

Reports some Midwest farmers may switch some corn acres to soybean acres.

 

Market talk/Reports that additional South American bean imports into the US and up the Mississippi river

 

Reports that China’s government did confirmed that they will auction beans and corn in late May

 

Jordan bought 150,000 optional origin feed barley for Aug Sept shipment

 

ANZ Bank estimated Australian ‘13/14 wheat exports at 19.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 18.6 MMT

 

USDA attaché in India estimated ‘14/15 wheat crop at 94.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 wheat crop of 93.5 MMT

 

USDA attaché in India estimated ‘14/15 wheat exports at 3.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 wheat export estimate of 6.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in India estimated ‘14/15 wheat domestic use at 92.5 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 93.9 MMT

 

Based on a Reuters survey of 11 analysts Ukraine 2014 corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT vs. 2013 record crop of 30.9 MMT

 

Based on a Reuters survey of 11 analysts Ukraine 2014 corn area estimated at 4.7 MH vs. 2013 area of 4.825 MH

 

Based on a Reuters survey of 11 analysts Ukraine 2014 corn yield estimated at 5.5 TPH vs. 2013 record yield of 6.4 TPH

 

Ukraine exported 2.19 MMT of grain in April (including 1.4 MMT of corn) vs. 2.98 MMT (including 2.6 MMT of corn) in March

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of May 7th Ukraine planted grains on 6.6 MH or 79% of total area.

 

France customs data showed France exported 1.7 MMT of soft wheat in March .

 

France customs data showed France exported 14.4 MMT of soft wheat between January – March up 10% from a year ago

 

Zambia official estimated ’13/14 corn crop at 3.4 MMT (record) vs. 2.5 MMT

 

July bean oil closed below the 100 day moving average of 4087 . July bean oil settled at 4083

 

China’s April trade data report comes out tonight.

 

CONAB comes out tomorrow with their Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were

  • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 86.08 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.3 MMT
  • ‘13/14 total corn crop estimated at 75.46 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 19.5 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop estimated at 6.7 MMT
  • 2014 wheat exports estimated at 500,000 tons

 

Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST

 

Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST . Expecting

  • Wheat expecting 300,000 – 600,000
  • Corn 600,000 – 1.1 M tons
  • Beans old crop  – 100,000 to +100,000 , new crop 100,000 – 300,000
  • Meal old crop 50,000 – 150,000 , new crop 0 – 200,000
  • Bean oil crop 0-30,000

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +70 BCF.

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 1K
  • Corn sold 4K
  • Beans sold 5K
  • Meal sold 1K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Open outcry option players

 

Corn:

ICAP bot 1000 M 500 puts/520 call strangles

RJO bot 1000 week 3 530 calls

ADM bot 500 N 510 calls

ADM bot 500 N 500 puts/sold 500 U 500 puts

Bache bot 500 Z 470 puts/bot 160 CZ

Bache bot 3400 Q 500 calls/sold 3400 N 480 calls

Bache bot 5700 Q 500 calls/sold 5700 N 490 calls

 

Beans:

EDF Sold 2000 Jul 1550 Calls 7.75-9.25

EDF Bot 200 Jul 1490 Calls 20.75-22.75

Macquarie Bot 500 Jul 1520 Calls 14.25/ Sold 130 Jul futures 1451

Macquarie Bot 250 Jul 1520 Calls 13.5/ Sold 60 Jul futures 1447

Bunge Bot 500 Wk2 1430 Puts 6.5-7

ABN Bot 500 Jul 1500/1550 Call spds 10 db

Rosenthal Sold 200 WK2  1450 Straddles 27

EDF Bot 200 Jul 1350 Puts 7.75

XFA Bot 250 Jul 1400 Puts 19.25

JP Morgan Bot 1500 June 1380 Puts 4/ Bot 180 Jul futures 1447

JP Morgan Bot 100 June 1400 Puts 3.75/ Bot 120 Jul futures 1449

JP Morgan Bot 500 Jul 1600 Calls 3.5

Obrien Bot 250 Jul 1600 calls 3.5

Marex Bot 250 Nov 1200 Straddles 133.5

 

Wheat:

ABN bot 500 N 710-680 put spreads

ABN bot 500 N 720-690 put spreads

ADM bot 500 U 670-590 put spreads

 

Meal:

Rand bot 1500 Z 330 puts (they bot 3000 Z 330 puts Tue)

 

Oil:

FI sold 300 N 43 ½-44 ½ call spreads

ICAP bot 200 Z 42 calls

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN               CLOSE

MAY            58-61.5              56-60

JLY                44-45                 47.5-48

AUG            44.5-46              47-47.5

SEP              96-99                  97-99

OCT             83-85                  83-84

DEC             78.5-79              78-78.75

JAN             73-74                  73-74

MCH           72-73                  72.5-73

MAY5         71-72                  71-72

JLY5             70-71                 70.5-71

 

Crush player

  • ADM sold 50 August at 47

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE