From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 4/25/2014

May options expired today on the close.

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 total corn crop at 73.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 71.2 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 82.1 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado said as of today Brazil has harvested 94% of their bean crop

 

Pakistan bought 101,000 tons of rapeseed from Canada for May- Aug shipment over the past few weeks.

 

In March Pakistan bought about 90,000 Canadian canola

 

Report on Reuters said Pakistan may need to buy more rapeseed for July-August shipment

 

Pakistan seeking wheat for Aug- Sept shipment

 

Philippines seek 90,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for July shipment

 

Chinese industry analysts estimated April bean imports at about 7.0 MMT

 

Chinese industry analysts estimated May bean imports at 5.9 MMT

 

Canadian Oilseed Processors Association for the week ending April 23rd

  • Canada’s canola crushers crushed 134,749 tons of canola down 1% from a week ago
  • Canada’s bean crushers crushed 34,382 tons of beans up 16% from a week ago

 

Bunge CEO said poor crushing margins in China are a short term problem and should improve in the next 2-3 months .

 

Bunge CEO said China has NOT canceled any soybean purchases from Bunge in Brazil.

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of April 24th Russia farmers have planted spring grains on 4.8 MH (15% of total area) vs. 3.7 MH a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of April 25th Ukraine exported 29.13 MMT of grain.

 

IGC ‘14/15 crop estimates

  • Global corn crop estimated at 950 MMT vs. previous estimate of 961 MMT and vs. 965 MMT in ‘13/14 shipment
  • Global corn consumption estimated at 945 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 935.0 MMT a year ago
  • Global wheat crop estimated at 697 MMT vs. previous estimate of 700 MMT and vs. 709 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Global wheat consumption estimated at 701.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 700 MMT and vs. 691 MMT in ‘13/14

 

FranceAgriMer weekly France crop progress report. As of April 21st

  • Corn planting is 68% complete vs. 39% a week earlier and vs. 25% a year ago
  • Soft wheat condition good to excellent 74% down 1% from a week earlier
  • Winter barley condition good to excellent 71% down 2% from a week earlier

 

Weekly COT supplemental report . Large spec positions as of April 22nd. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 11,682
  • KC wheat long 15,005
  • Corn long 171,591
  • Beans long 116,694
  • Soymeal long 40,476
  • Bean oil long 10,866

 

General Statistics Office said Vietnam exported 700,000 tons of rice in April up 10.9% from a month ago

 

US wheat crop tour starts next week in the US Plains

 

Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST

 

Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST. Expecting corn planting to be 20-23% complete vs. 6% a week ago.

  • Reports that central Iowa has planted about 40-50% of their corn crop .
  • Reports that northwest Iowa has planted about 40% of their corn crop.

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 4K
  • Corn bought 5K
  • Beans bought 9K
  • Meal bought 4K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Open outcry option players

  • Marex bot 8000 Nov beans 1060 Puts 13.5-15
  • Bunge bought 1,000 Nov beans 1060 puts at 15-15 ¼
  • GFI Sold 1600 June beans 1460 Calls/ Bot 1600 Jul 1500 Calls 6-6.25 credit/ Bot 256 Jul futures 1486
  • FI bot 1000 Nov bean 1200 Puts/ Sold 2000 Nov 1100 Puts 10.875-11.5 debit
  • Dowd Wescott bot 1000 Nov bean 1160 Puts/ Sold 2000 Nov 1060 Puts 10.25 debit
  • New Edge Sold 1,000 Aug bean 1300/1200 put spreads 13 credit
  • ADM bought 1,400 May corn 500 puts at a ½
  • Rand bought 2,000 June corn 480 puts at 2 3/8 -2 ½
  • Rand bought 3,000 June corn 475 puts at 2 ¼
  • FI bought 2,000 July corn 520 calls sold 2,000 July short dated 520 calls at 2 ¾ debit
  • Tenco bought 800 July wheat 720 calls at 26 – 29 ½
  • ABN sold 500 June wheat 650 puts at 4 ½ tied to futures at 704
  • ICap bought 1,000 June wheat 720 calls at 17 ½ tied to futures at 705 ½
  • RJO bought 1,000 Oct meal 450 calls at 6.50
  • New Edge bought 300 July bean oil 4250 / 40 put spreads at 80

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

M vol 24 ¼ 510 str 27 ½- 28 ½

N vol 27 510 str 43-44

U vol 30 ½ 510 str 70-70 ½

Z vol 27 ¾ 500 str 83 ½-84 ½

H vol 25 ¾ 510 str 93 ½-95 ½

 

Beans

M vol 20 ¾ 1490 str 68 ½- 70

N vol 21 1490 str 98 ½ -100

X vol 21 ¼ 1240 str 146-148

 

Wheat

M vol 30 710 str 47-49

N vol 29 ¾ 710 str 67-70

U vol 29 ½ 720 str 97-99

Z vol 28 ½ 730 str 124-126

 

KC Wheat

M vol 27 ¾ 780 str 47-50

N vol 28 780 str 67-70

U vol 27 ¾ 790 str 95-100

Z vol 26 ¼ 800 str 122-128

 

Minneapolis wheat

M vol 26 ½ 750 str 40-46

N vol 26 ½ 750 str 60-65

U vol 26 ¾ 760 str 88-94

Z vol 26 770 str 113-120

 

Meal

M vol 24.5 480 str 24.5-26.5

N vol 23 480 str 35-37

Q vol 23.25 450 str 42.5-44.5

U vol 22.75 420 str 44-46

Z vol 21.75 380 str 4950-51

 

Bean oil

M vol 20.75 43 str 180-205

N vol 20.5 43 str 260-280

Q vol 20.75 43 str 340-360

U vol 20.25 4250 str 390-405

V vol 20.25 42 str 425-445

Z vol 20 42 str 480-510

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN               CLOSE

MAY         56-57.5            52.5-53.5

JLY             38.5-39           39-39.5

AUG         44-45               42.5-44.5

SEP           95-98               95-98

OCT          84-85               85-86

DEC          79-79.5            79.5-80

JAN          72.5-73.5         72.5-73

MCH        72-73                71.5-72.5

MAY5      70.5-71            70.5-71

JLY5         69.5-70             69.5-70

 

Crush players

 

Jefferies sold 130 NQQ at – 2

JP Morgan bought 50 May at 54.5

Tenco sold 170 July at 39

 

Oil Share players

 

Tenco sold May 150 bean oil/105 meal at 30.45%

 

Tenco bought July 150 bean oil / 105 meal at 31.01%

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE