From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

Reminder: I will be on vacation all next week. No information emails will be sent by me. I apologize for any inconvenience.  

 

Egypt GASC bought 175,000 tons of wheat for November shipment

  • 120,000 tons of wheat from France
  • 55,000 tons of wheat from Russia

 

Argentina analysts estimated ‘14/15 Argentine bean area at 19.5-20.5 MH vs. ‘13/14 area of 19.5-20.2 MH

 

Argentina analysts estimated ‘14/15 Argentine corn area at 5.6 MH vs. ‘13/14 area of 6.1 MH

 

Ukraine Ag Min said as of Oct 10th Ukraine harvested 47.13 MMT of grain on 12.149 MH with an average yield of 3.88 TPH. A year ago Ukraine harvested 42.1 MMT of grain on 12.085 MH with an average yield of 3.48 TPH

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine will lose 45,000 hectare of grains harvest due to fighting in the east.

 

COPA said for the week ending Oct 8th Canadian crushers crushed 148,096 tons of canola down 3.2% from a week ago

 

COPA said for the week ending Oct 8th Canadian crushers crushed 25,674 tons of soybeans down 9.5% from a week ago

 

Today was the fourth day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends on Monday. Goldman is rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan beans, rolling long Dec bean oil and soymeal into Jan bean oil and soymeal. On the close

  • 5,316 Nov/Jan bean spreads traded at -8 to -7 ¾
  • 2,529 Dec/Jan meal spreads traded at 3.40-3.70
  • 7,000 Dec/Jan bean oil spreads traded at -28 to -26

 

Weekly COT supplemental report. Large fund positions as of 10/07/14. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 85,125
  • KC wheat short 14,036
  • Corn long 3,529
  • Beans short 71,015
  • Meal long 16,999
  • Bean oil long 11,492

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 4K
  • Corn sold 13K
  • Beans  sold 9K
  • Meal even
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • China’s September trade balance data comes out on Monday morning
  • Argentina markets are closed on Monday for holiday
  • Monday is a US government holiday. The grain market will be opened. Currency and financial markets are closed. Weekly reports may be pushed back due to holiday.
  • Goldman Sachs roll ends on Monday
  • Last trading day for October meal and bean oil is Tuesday. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes on Tuesday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Tuesday at 3 pm CST
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Wednesday at 11 am CST. Estimates are not out yet for the NOPA report, but here are month and year ago figures.
    • Crush in August was 110.633 MB, in Sept 2013 crush was 108.68 MB
    • Bean oil stocks in August was 1.214 billion LBS , in Sept 2013 bean oil stocks 1.372 billion LBS
    • Soymeal exports in August were 263,440 tons, in Sept 2013 meal exports were 306,226 tons
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out on Wednesday at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out on Thursday at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out on Thursday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out on Thursday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST

 

Open outcry option players:

  • TJM (ABN) sold 2,500 Nov bean 940 calls at 8 ¾ -9 ½
  • ABN sold 2,500 July bean 980/1000 call spread at 7 ¾
  • RJO bought 500 Nov bean 940 calls at 16 ¼ -16 ½
  • Rosenthal sold 600 Nov bean 900 puts at 8 ½-8 ¾ and sold 156 Nov futures at 933
  • ICAP sold 1,000 week 2 soybean 950 calls at 2-4
  • Rand sold 1,000 Nov bean 950 straddles at 35 tied to futures at 940 with a 16 delta
  • FI bought 1,000 week 2 corn 330 puts at 2
  • FI bought 2,000 Dec corn 290 puts at 7/8
  • Sal Stone bought 4,000 Dec ’14 corn 340 calls and sold 4,000 Dec ’15 corn 340 puts at 4 – 4 3/8 credit
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 320 puts and sold 1,000 Dec corn 360 call combos at a ½ debit
  • ABN bought 2,000 Dec corn 320 puts and sold 2,000 Dec corn 360 call combos at a ½ debit
  • Rosenthal bought 3,000 Dec corn 340 calls at 11 and sold 3,000 Dec corn futures at 338
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Nov corn 340 straddles at 18
  • FI sold 2,000 Nov corn 350 calls at 2 5/8 -2 ¾
  • Macquarie sold 1,000 Nov corn 340 straddles at 18
  • New Edge bought 400 Nov wheat 490/475 put spreads at 6 3/8 -6 ½
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Nov wheat 540 calls at 1 ½
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Nov wheat 490 puts at 4 ½ -5
  • RJO bought 500 week 3 soymeal 300 puts at 3.00
  • FI bought 1,500 Dec meal 290/280 put spreads at 1.25
  • Mizuho bought 800 March bean oil 31 puts and sold 800 March bean oil 33.5 calls at 70-80 credit
  • Mizuho bought 800 Jan bean oil 31 puts and sold 800 Jan bean oil 35.5 calls at 15-20 debit
  • Rosenthal bought 500 Jan bean oil 35 calls and sold 500 Jan bean oil 32 puts at 35 credit
  • RJO sold 1,500 Dec bean oil 31 puts at 26-27

 

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                  CLOSE

OCT          1.60-1.70          1.75-1.85

DEC          1.11-1.13          1.185-1.19

FZZ           1.035-1.05        1.105-1.115

JAN          1.01-1.02          1.05-1.065

MCH        89-89.5              90-92

MAY        80-80.5              81.5-82

JLY           79-79.5              79-80

AUG        79-80                 79-80

SEP          85-90                 85-90

OCT5       86-88                 87-94

 

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ABN sold 220 Dec crush at 1.13-1.16
  • Drax bought 50 Dec oil / 30 Dec meal at 34.00%

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE