From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for Nov shipment

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out this morning at 930 am CST at +105 BCF expecting +108 BCF

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 9.3 MMT of grain between July 1st – Oct 8th up 38% from a year ago

 

FAO estimated 2014 world cereals output at 2.523 billion tons up 65 million tons from previous estimate

 

FAO estimated 2014 world wheat crop at 718.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 716.5 MMT

 

FAO estimated ‘14/15 world cereals ending stocks at 627.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 616.0 MMT

 

Today was the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. 2 days remain. Goldman is rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan beans, rolling long Dec bean oil and soymeal into Jan bean oil and soymeal. On the close

  • 4,753 Nov/Jan bean spreads traded at -8 to -7 ¾
  • 3,000 Dec/Jan meal spreads traded at 2.30-2.50
  • 5,600 Dec/Jan bean oil spreads traded at -28 to -27

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 5K
  • Corn bought 7K
  • Beans bought 4K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil bought 500

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-10th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out tomorrow with their Sept palm oil data report. Expecting
    • September palm oil stocks average estimate is 2.05 MMT vs. August stocks of 2.054 MMT
    • September palm oil output average estimate is 1.87 MMT vs. August output of 2.03 MMT
    • September palm oil exports average estimate is 1.60 MMT vs. August exports of 1.44 MMT
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . See attachment for recap table for report
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

 

USDA October crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for USDA report.

 

Estimates for US 2014 corn and bean production

  • Corn production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.506 BB , range of estimates are 14.063- 14.958 BB. USDA September estimate was 14.395 BB and final 2013 corn production was 13.925 BB
  • Corn yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 174.685 BPA, range of estimates are 172.0- 178.4 BPA. USDA September estimate was 171.7 BPA and final 2013 corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 83.158 MA, range of estimates are 81.611- 84.389 MA. USDA September estimate was 83.839 MA and final 2013 corn harvested acres were 87.700 MA
  • Bean production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.976 BB, range of estimates are 3.880- 4.104 BB. USDA September estimate was 3.913 BB and final 2013 bean production was 3.358 BB.
  • Bean yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 47.589 BB, range of estimates are 46.9- 48.8 BPA. USDA September estimate was 46.6 BPA and final 2013 bean yield was 44.0 BPA.
  • Bean harvested acres (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 83.621 MA, range of estimates are 82.449 – 84.100 MA. USDA September estimate was 84.058 MA and final 2013 bean harvested acres were 76.253 MA

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .704 BB, range of estimates are .625- .736 BB. USDA September estimate was .698 BB.
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.130 BB, range of estimates are 1.785- 2.518 BB. USDA September estimate was 2.002 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .472 BB, range of estimates are .376- .550 BB. USDA September estimate was .475 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 186.77 MMT , range of estimates are 186.00- 188.30 MMT. USDA September estimate was 186.45 MMT
  • Corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 173.65 MMT, range of estimates are 172.20- 175.00 MMT . USDA September estimate was 173.08 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 66.21 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0 – 68.0 MMT. USDA September estimate was 66.91 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 196.38 MMT, range of estimates are 190.00- 198.05 MMT. USDA September estimate was 196.38 MMT
  • Corn (15 analysts surveyed) average estimate 192.02 MMT, range of estimates are 188.00- 200.23 MMT. USDA September estimate was 189.91 MMT
  • Beans (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 90.76 MMT, range of estimates are 88.50- 96.87 MMT. USDA September estimate was 90.17 MMT

 

Open outcry option players:

  • Bunge bought 1,000 Nov bean 950 calls at 15 ¾ -16 ½
  • Bunge bought 1,000 Nov bean 960 calls at 12 ¾ -13 and sold 360 Nov futures at 940
  • ABN bought 500 Nov bean 950 calls and sold 1,000 Nov bean 970 calls at 3 ¼ -3 ½ credit
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Jan bean 940/1000 call spreads at 25 ½ -26 ¼
  • Tenco bought 2,000 week 2 soybean 900 puts at 3 ¾
  • TJM bought 1,300 Nov bean 930/950 call spreads at 9 ½ -11
  • TJM bought 2,000 Nov bean 900 puts at 7 ¾- 9
  • Rand bought 1,000 Nov bean 910 puts at 11 ½
  • ABN bought 1,000 Dec corn 360 calls and sold 1,000 Dec corn 320 puts at 1 debit sold 480 Dec corn 341 ¾
  • ABN bought 2,000 Dec corn 350 calls and sold 1,000 Dec corn 320 calls at 9 ¾
  • ADM bought 1,000 Dec corn 320 puts at 3 7/8
  • Dowd sold 1,000 Dec corn 335 puts at 6 ¾
  • TJM (division of ABN) bought 10,000 Nov corn 350 calls at 6 ¼ -7 ½
  • Rand bought 1,000 Nov corn 350 calls and sold 1,000 Dec corn 360 calls at a ½ debit
  • RJO bought 400 Dec wheat 510/530 call spreads at 6 ½
  • Rosenthal sold 400 Nov wheat 520 calls at 4 ½-5
  • Bunge bought 800 Dec meal 310 puts at 10
  • RJO bought 500 Dec bean oil 31 puts at 30
  • Kottke bought 600 Jan bean oil 35 calls and sold 600 Jan bean oil 32 puts at even
  • Rosenthal bought 1,800 March bean oil 31.50 puts at 72-75 and bought 432 March futures at 3365

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

X vol 30 ½ 345 str 17-18

Z vol 25 345 str 23 ½ -24 ¼

F vol 22 360 str 28 ½-30

H vol 22 ¾ 360 str 38 ½ -39 ½

K vol 22 370 str 46 ½ -48

N vol 22 370 str 64 ½-66

U vol 23 ½ 380 str 66-69 ½

Z15 vol 22 ¼ 390 str 72-73 ½

 

Beans:

X vol 28 ½ 940 str 43-44

Z vol 23 ¾ 940 str 61-63

F vol 21 ¾ 940 str 76-78

H vol 21 ¼ 960 str 97-99

X15 vol 18 960 str 138-141

 

Wheat:

X vol 29 490 str 23-25

Z vol 25 490 str 32 -35

H vol 21 ½ 510 str 52-54

K vol 21 ¼ 510 str 62-64

N vol 21 ¾ 520 str 74-77

 

KC wheat:

X vol 25 ¾ 570 str 22-26

Z vol 21 ½ 570 str 33-35

H vol 19 570 str 51-54

K vol 18 ¾ 570 str 60-64

N vol 19 ¼ 570 str 72-76

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 20 ½ 550 str 29-33

H vol 18 560 str 47-53

K vol 17 ½ 570 str 57-63

N vol 18 ½ 580 str 68-74

 

Meal:

X vol 31 310 str 15.5-17

Z vol 27 310 str 23-24

F vol 23.5 310 str 26-28

H vol 22.5 310 str 31.5-33.5

K vol 20.75 310 str 36-38

 

Bean oil:

X vol 24 33 str 125-145

Z vol 22.25 33 str 195-210

F vol 20 33 str 245-265

H vol 19.75 33.5 str 310-330

K vol 19.75 33.5 str 360-410

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                   CLOSE

OCT          1.52-1.585          1.50-1.55

DEC          1.11-1.12            1.10-1.125

FZZ           1.03-1.04            1.00-1.03

JAN          1.005-1.02          99-1.015

MCH        89-89.5                87.5-89.5

MAY        80-80.5                79-80.5

JLY           78-79                    78.5-79

AUG       78.5-80                 78.5-80

SEP          84-90                     86-90

OCT5       86-89                     82.5-89

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ABN sold 200 Dec crush at 1.1125-1.1225
  • No pit oil share players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE