From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

USDA attaché in China estimated China’s ‘14/15 total oilseed production at 55.8 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 58.7 MMT

 

USDA attaché in China estimated China’s ‘14/15 soybean imports at 72.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in China estimated at China’s ‘13/14 soybean imports at 69.0 MMT

 

Argentine government may force farmers to sell soybeans

 

Somar said Brazil’s farm belt forecast is dry through late October

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2014 wheat crop at 58.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 60.0 MMT

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2014 barley crop at 19.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.1 MMT

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2014 corn crop at 12.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 14.4 MMT

 

NFU estimated 2014 British wheat yield at 8.6 TPH (record) up 16% from a year ago

 

NFU estimated 2014 British wheat crop at 16.67 MMT largest since 2008

 

Today was the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. 3 days remain. Goldman is rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan beans, rolling long Dec bean oil and soymeal into Jan bean oil and soymeal. On the close

  • 4,200 Nov/Jan bean spreads traded at -8 ½ and -8 ¼
  • 3,560 Dec/Jan meal spreads traded at 1.50-2.10
  • 5,400 Dec/Jan bean oil spreads traded at -28 to -27

 

Today was the last day of the Deutsche Bank roll. DB has been rolling long November 2014 bean positions into Nov 2015 beans. On the close

  • 1,700 Nov ‘14/Nov ’15 bean spreads traded at -24 ¾ to -23 ¾

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 1,500
  • Corn bought 4,000
  • Beans sold 4,000
  • Meal sold 1,000
  • Bean oil sold 1,000

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • CONAB comes out tomorrow morning with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘14/15 crops.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • Wheat 400,000 -600,000 tons
    • Corn 550,000 -750,000 tons
    • Beans 500,000 -900,000 tons
    • Meal 100,000 -300,000 tons
    • Bean oil -5,000 to +30,000 tons
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +108 BCF

 

Open outcry option players:

  • Drax sold 1,000 Nov bean 900 puts at 8 ¼ -8 3/8 and sold 245 Nov futures at 936 ½
  • ICAP bought 500 Nov bean 920 puts and sold 1,000 Nov bean 890 puts at 2 ¼ debit
  • ABN bought 2,500 Jan bean 910/800/690 put flys at 18 debit
  • Dowd Wescott bought 4,000 March bean 800 puts at 8 3/8 -8 ¾
  • ADM bought 1,000 March bean 820/800 bean puts at 2 ½
  • Macquarie sold 1,000 Dec corn 350 calls at 7 ½ and bought 380 Dec corn futures at 340 ¼
  • RJO bought 1,000 Nov corn 330 puts at 4 ½ -4 5/8
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Dec corn 340 puts at 10 1/8 -10 ¼
  • Macquarie bought 500 week 2 corn 330 puts and sold 1,000 week 2 320 corn puts at 1 debit
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Nov corn 330 puts and sold 1,000 Nov corn 350 calls at a ½ debit
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 March corn 340 puts at 13 1/8
  • FI sold 3,000 Dec wheat 560 calls at 3 ½ -3 5/8
  • ICAP sold 800 Dec wheat 500 straddles at 35-36
  • Drax bought 2,500 Nov wheat 540 calls at 3-3 ½
  • ADM sold 200 Nov meal 305 puts at 4.25-4.50
  • Jefferies sold 200 Dec bean oil 34 calls at 55
  • Drax bought 500 March bean oil 33 puts at 132 and bought 215 March futures at 3355.

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

X vol 27 ½ 340 str 16-16 ¾

Z vol 23 ¾ 340 str 22 ¾-23 ¼

F vol 21 ¾ 360 str 28 ½-30

H vol 22 360 str 38-39

K vol 21 ½ 360 str 45-46 ½

N vol 21 ¾ 370 str 54-55 ½

U vol 23 ¾ 380 str 66-67 ½

Z15 22 ¼ 390 str 72 ½ -73 ½

 

Beans:

X vol 25 ¾ 940 str 41-42

Z vol 23 940 str 60 ½-61 1 /2

F vol 21 ½ 940 str 75-76

H vol 21 960 str 97-98 ½

 

Wheat:

X vol 28 510 str 24-26

Z vol 24 510 str 35-36

H vol 21 ¾ 520 str 54-55

K vol 21 1/8 530 str 65-67

N vol 21 ¾ 530 str 77-79

 

KC wheat:

X vol 24 ¾ 590 str 24-27

Z vol 21 ½ 590 str 34-37

H vol 19 ¼ 590 str 53-57

K vol 19 590 str 64-68

N vol 20 590 str 77-81

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 21 ½ 570 str 31-35

H vol 18 ¾ 580 str 48-54

K vol 18 ½ 590 str 58-64

N vol 19 600 str 70-76

 

Meal:

X vol 27 310 str 15.5-16.5

Z vol 24 310 str 21.5-23.5

F vol 23 310 str 25.5-27.5

H vol 22 310 str 31.5-33.5

K vol 20 310 str 35-38

 

Bean oil:

X vol 23 33 str 125-140

Z vol 21.5 33 str 190-200

F vol 19.75 33.5 str 245-270

H vol 19 33.5 str 305-330

K vol 18.5 33.5 str 360-395

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                CLOSE

OCT        1.42-1.45          1.50-1.54

DEC        1.11-1.12          1.09-1.10

FZZ         1.025-1.04        1.005-1.02

JAN        1.01-1.025        1.00-1.01

MCH      88-89.5              88-89.5

MAY      79-80                  79.5-80

JLY          77.5-78              78-79

AUG      78-80                  75-80

SEP         83-90                  86-90

OCT5     84-88                   84-88.5

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ABN sold 40 Dec crush at 1.09
  • Kottke sold 50 Dec 2015 crush 86-86.5
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE