From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

Egypt GASC bought 120,000 tons of French wheat for November shipment

 

Egypt FIHC bought 12,000 tons of sunflower oil for Oct-Nov shipment

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated ‘14/15 bean crop at 94.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated ‘14/15 bean crush at 37.5 MMT

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated ‘14/15 bean exports at a record 49.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated ‘14/15 wheat crop at 7.5 MMT up 30% from ‘13/14

 

Brazil Trade Ministry – Brazil’s September exports

  • Soybeans = 2.67 MMT vs. 4.12 MMT in Aug and vs. 3.47 MMT a year ago
  • Soymeal = 1.23 MMT vs. 1.64 MMT in Aug and vs. 1.41 MMT a year ago
  • Bean oil = 64,800 tons vs. 138,093 tons in Aug and vs. 177,500 tons a year ago
  • Corn = 2,683,900 tons vs. 2,457,800 tons in Aug and vs. 3,449,300 tons a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Paraguay’s 2015 bean crop at 9.5 MMT vs. last year’s crop of 9.0 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Paraguay’s 2015 bean harvested area at 3.82 MH vs. last year’s harvested area of 3.73 MH

 

Oil World estimated Paraguay’s 2015 average bean yield at 2.49 TPH vs. last year’s yield of 2.42 TPH

 

Oil World estimated Paraguay’s 2015 soybean exports at 5.4 MMT vs. last year’s exports of 5.1 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Paraguay’s 2015 soybean crush at 3.8 MMT vs. last year’s crush of 3.6 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Paraguay’s 2015 bean ending stocks at 330,000 tons vs. 2014 ending stocks of 350,000 tons

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2014 grain crop at 64.4 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 60.0 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2014 corn crop at 30+ MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2014 average grain yields at 3.75 TPH vs. 3.29 TPH a year ago

 

ProAgro estimated Ukraine’s 2014 grain crop at 61.0 MMT

 

ProAgro said Ukraine’s 2014 corn crop will not reach 30.0 MMT

 

India’s soybean futures hit lowest levels in over 13 months

Today was the last day of the Rogers roll. They have been rolling long Nov bean positons into Jan.

  • On the electronic platform 5,784 Nov- Jan bean spreads traded at -8 ½ to -8 ¼
  • In the open outcry market 100 Nov-Jan bean spreads traded at  -8 ½

 

November beans made a new contract low today of 904

 

Dec meal made a new contract low today of 295.10

 

Dec corn made a new contract low today of 318 ¼

 

Dec KC wheat made a new contract low today of 550

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low today of 525

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bot 1K
  • Corn  bot 3K
  • Beans bot 3K
  • Meal  sold 1K
  • Bean oil bot 2K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • FC Stone is coming out this afternoon about 3 pm CST with their 2014 US crop estimate updates Previous estimates were
    • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.595 BB vs. USDA September estimate of 14.395
    • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 174.1 BPA vs. USDA September estimate of 171.7 BPA
    • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 4.0 BB vs. USDA September estimate of 3.913 BB
    • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 47.6 BPA vs. September estimate of 46.6 BPA
  • China is on holiday until Wednesday October 8th
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST . Expecting
    • Wheat 400-600,000 tons
    • Corn 650-900,000 tons
    • Beans 700,000 -1.0 million tons
    • Meal 125-325,000 tons
    • Bean oil -5,000 to +20,000 tons
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins tomorrow and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling long Nov 2014 bean positions into Nov 2015 . Some analysts say they will be rolling 3,000-4,000 spreads per day.

 

Open outcry option players:

  • Jefferies bought 2,000 Jan bean 840 puts and sold 1,000 Jan bean 900 puts at 3 ¾ credit
  • RJO bought 2,700 Jan bean 940 calls and sold 2,700 Nov bean 910 calls at 3 5/8 -4 debit
  • TJM (division of ABN) sold 2,000 Nov bean 900 puts at 19
  • RJO bought 1,500 Jan bean 960 calls and sold 1,500 Nov bean 910 calls at 3-3 ½ credit
  • FI sold 3,000 Dec corn 350-340 put spreads at 8 ½
  • FI sold 2,000 Dec corn 450-400 put spreads at 49 ¾
  • Dowd sold 1,000 Dec corn 340-350 put spreads at 8 5/8
  • FI bought 1,000 Dec corn 300 puts at 3 ½
  • ADM sold 2,000 Dec corn 450/400 put spreads at 49 ¾
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Dec wheat 500/540 call spreads at 5-5 1/8
  • Jefferies bought 600 Nov wheat 450 puts at 4 and bought 120 Dec futures at 472 ½
  • ICAP bought 800 Dec wheat 500-540 call spreads at 5-5 1/8
  • Mizuho bought 1,600 Nov wheat 450 puts and sold 400 Nov wheat 500 puts at 14 ½ credit (1×4)
  • Rosenthal bought 1,700 Dec wheat 450 puts at 6 ¼
  • New Edge bought 700 Jan wheat 500 puts sold 700 May wheat 460 puts and sold 700 May wheat 550 calls at even
  • Tenco sold 200 July KC wheat 550 puts at 30-31
  • FI sold 800 March meal 350 puts at 59.25 tied to futures at 292.50
  • Rand sold 500 March meal 340 puts at 50.00
  • ICAP sold 800 Dec 2015 meal 290 puts at 16.50-16.70 tied to futures at 297
  • ADM bought 300 Dec bean oil 32 puts at 67-70
  • Rosenthal bought 400 Dec bean oil 34 calls and sold 400 Dec bean oil 30 puts at 40-45 debit

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

X vol 22 ½ 320 str 14 ¼ -14 ¾

Z vol 21 320 str 20-20 ½

F vol 19 ½ 330 str 24 ½ -26

H vol 20 ¼ 330 str 33 ¼-34 ¼

K vol 19 ¾ 340 str 39 ½-40 ½

N vol 20 350 str 47-48

Z15 vol 20 ½ 370 str 63-64

 

Beans:

X vol  22 920 str 40 ½ -41 ¼

Z vol 21 920 str 58 ¾ -59 ¾

F vol 19 ½ 920 str 70 ¾-71 ¾

H vol 19 ½ 940 str 89-91

 

Wheat:

X vol 26 ½ 480 str 25-27

Z vol 24 ¾ 480 str 35-37

H vol 21 ¾ 490 str 52-54

K vol 21 500 str 62-64

N vol 21 ¼ 510 str 73-75

 

KC wheat:

X vol 23 ¼ 560 str 26-27

Z vol 21 ¾ 560 str 36-38

H vol 19 ¼ 560 str 53-56

K vol 19 560 str 64-67

N vol 19 ½ 560 str 72-77

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 19 ¼ 530 str 29-33

H vol 17 ¼ 550 str 44-50

K vol 17 ¼ 560 str 54-60

N vol 17 ¾ 570 str 62-70

 

Meal:

X vol 25.25 300 str 14.5-16.5

Z vol 23.5 300 str 21-22

F vol 21.75 300 str 24-26

H vol 20.75 300 str 29-31

K vol 20.25 300 str 33.5-35.5

 

Bean oil:

X vol 21.5 33 str 140-160

Z vol 20.75 33 str 200-215

F vol 19 33 str 245-260

H vol 18.5 33.5 str 310-330

K vol 18 33.5 str 355-380

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                CLOSE

OCT       1.14-1.155       1.12-1.14

DEC        1.03-1.035       1.005-1.01

FZZ         95-95.5             92-94.5

JAN        94-95                 91-93

MCH      84.5-85              82-83

MAY      78-78.5              76-77.5

JLY          78-78.5              76-78

AUG      78-83                  75-80

SEP         85-94                  85-90

OCT5      85.5-90              84.5-89

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • Rosenthal bought 600 Dec crush at 1.0125
  • Rosenthal sold 300 March crush at 83
  • Rosenthal sold 300 May crush at 77
  • Rosenthal sold 210 Dec 2015 crush at 87-87.5
  • Tenco sold 100 March crush at 83
  • New Edge sold 50 Jan crush at 92.5
  • ABN sold 150 March crush at 83-83.25
  • ABN bought Dec oil share 530 oil / 340 meal at 35.45-35.55%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE