From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for Nov shipment

 

Today was the end of the month and the end of the quarter

 

Cordonnier weekly crop estimates

  • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 95.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘14/15 Brazilian total corn crop estimated at 75.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘14/15 Argentina bean crop estimated at 55.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘14/15 Argentina corn crop estimated at 22.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 173.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 46.7 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

 

CEC South Africa 2014 crop estimates

  • Corn crop estimated at 14.307 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Wheat crop estimated at 1.79 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.78 MMT
  • Sunflower seed crop estimated at 853,325 tons unchanged from previous estimate

 

Reports Iowa bean yields are better than expected

 

ADM Germany (formally Toepfer International) estimated EU 2014 corn crop at 70.46 MMT vs. 64.48 MMT in 2013

 

ADM Germany estimated Romania 2014 corn crop at 10.8 MMT vs. 10.4 MMT in 2013

 

ADM Germany estimated Italy’s 2014 corn crop at 7.9 MMT vs. 7.8 MMT in 2013

 

ADM Germany estimated Germany’s 2014 corn crop at 4.8 MMT vs. 4.0 MMT a year ago

 

ADM Germany estimated Hungary’s 2014 corn crop at 7.9 MMT vs. 6.6 MMT in 2013

 

AGPM (French growers group) estimated France’s 2014 corn crop at a record high 17.25 MMT vs. 14.73 MMT

 

Some other analysts are estimating France’s 2014 corn crop at 18.0 MMT

 

India’s Weather Office said India’s June 1st – Sept 30th monsoon rains were 12% below average

 

Today was the second day of the Rogers roll. Rogers roll ends tomorrow. They have been rolling their long Nov bean positions into Jan.

 

USDA to restart US oilseed crush reports in 2015 , reports were discontinued in 2011

 

Contract lows:

  • Nov beans 905 ½ (not made today)
  • Dec corn 319 ½  (made today)
  • Dec wheat 466 ¼ (not made today)
  • Dec KC wheat 553 ½ (not made today)
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 529 ¼ (made today)
  • Dec soymeal 297.50 (made today)
  • Dec bean oil 3152 (not made today)

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 3K
  • Corn sold 7K
  • Beans sold 5K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 2,500

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Tomorrow is the beginning of a new month
  • Tomorrow is the beginning of a new quarter
  • Starting tomorrow China is on holiday for one week. Markets will be closed.
  • Final September manufacturing PMIs for Eurozone, Germany, and come out tomorrow morning
  • Effective tomorrow 2014 NFA assessment fee will be lowered to 1 cent per side vs. 2 cents per side currently.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.5 MB
    • Gas a draw of 600,000 barrels
    • Distillates unchanged
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST

 

Open outcry option players:

  • RJO bought 700 Dec bean 880 puts and sold 1,050 Dec bean 800 puts at 8 ¼ debit and bought 105 Jan futures at 930
  • ADM bought 1,000 July bean 940 puts at 51-52
  • Tenco bought 1,000 Dec bean 890/830 put spreads at 10 ¼ and bought 180 Jan futures at 927
  • ABN sold 4,000 Dec corn 360/400 put spreads at 38 5/8
  • Macquarie sold 1,000 Dec corn 310 puts at 5 tied to futures at 324 with a 26 delta
  • JP Morgan bought 1,500 Dec corn 320-300 put spreads and sold 1,500 Dec corn 340 calls at ¾-7/8 debit
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 320 straddles at 20
  • FI sold 2,000 July corn 350 puts at 22 ¾
  • JP Morgan bought 750 Dec wheat 580 calls at 1 1/8
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Dec wheat 600 calls at 7/8
  • FI bought 500 Dec wheat 460/440 put spreads at 5 7/8 tied to futures at 475 ½ with a 16 delta
  • Rosenthal sold 600 Dec meal 300 puts at 9.75-10.15
  • RJJO sold 500 week 3 meal 300 puts at 7.00
  • ADM bought 1,000 Dec bean oil 3150 puts at 58-60
  • Jefferies bought 200 Jan bean oil 3250 puts sold 200 Jan bean oil 32 puts and sold 200 Jan bean oil 3150 put trees at 40 credit

 

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

X vol 22 320 str 14 ¼-15

Z vol 20 ¾ 320 str 20-20 ½

F vol 19 ½ 330 str 24 ½-26

H vol 20 330 str 32 ¾ -33 ¾

K vol 19 ½ 340 str 39 ½-40 ½

N vol 19 ¾ 350 str 46 ½-47 ½

Z15 vol 20 ½ 370 str 63-64

 

Beans:

X vol 23 920 str 44-45

Z vol 21 ½ 920 str 60 ½-61 ½

F vol 20 920 str 72-73

H vol 19 ½ 940 str 91-92

 

Wheat:

X vol 25 ½ 480 str 24-26

Z vol 23 ½ 480 str 33-35

H vol 20 ¾ 490 str 50-52

K vol 20 ½ 500 str 60-62

N vol 21 500 str 71-73

 

KC wheat:

X vol 22 560 str 25-27

Z vol 20 ½ 560 str 34-36

H vol 18 ¾ 560 str 51-54

K vol 18 ¾ 570 str 61-65

N vol 19 ¼ 560 str 72-74

 

Minneapolis wheat:

Z vol 19 ¼ 530 str 29-33

H vol 17 ¼ 550 str 44-50

K vol 17 ¼ 560 str 54-60

N vol 17 ¾ 570 str 62-70

 

Meal:

X vol 24.5 300 str 13.5-15.5

Z vol 22.25 300 str 20-21.5

F vol 21.75 300 str 23-24.5

H vol 20.75 300 str 31-33

K vol 19.75 300 str 36.5-38.5

 

Bean oil:

X vol 21 32.5 str 125-150

Z vol 20.5 32.5 str 195-205

F vol 19.25 32.5 str 245-260

H vol 18.5 33 str 295-325

K vol 18.25 33 str 345-375

 

Crush quotes:

 

OPEN                CLOSE

OCT        1.16-1.17          1.11-1.12

DEC         1.075-1.085     1.00-1.01

FZZ          99-1.00             93-95

JAN         96.5-98.5          91-93

MCH       86.5-88.5          82.5-86

MAY       81-81.5              76-77.5

JLY           80.5-81              76-77.5

AUG       78-82                  75-82

SEP         85-95                   85-95

OCT5      91-94                   84-94

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • No crush pit players today
  • Rosenthal bot 500 Dec oil/meal at 35.15-35.23%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE