From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

August options expired today.

 

Based on a Reuters poll of 20 analysts. 2014 US crop estimates

  • Average corn yield estimated at 170.476 BPA (record) vs. previous estimate of 166.104 BPA , vs. USDA estimate of 165.3 BPA , and vs. previous record made in 2009 of 164.7 BPA
  • Range of corn yield estimates were 166.0-176.0 BPA
  • Average bean yield estimated at 45.548 BPA (record), vs. previous estimate of 45.138 BPA, vs. USDA estimate of 45.2 BPA, and vs. previous record made in 2009 of 44.0 BPA
  • Range of bean yield estimates were 44.2-46.85 BPA

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s Jan – June 2014 soybean crush at 18.3 MMT vs. 16.1 MMT in 2013

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s Jan – June 2014 sunseed crush at 1.4 MMT vs. 1.7 MMT in 2013

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean area at 31.2 MH up 4% from ‘13/14 area

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 94.45 MMT (record) vs. their ‘13/14 bean crop estimate of 86.6 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado expects Brazil’s ‘14/15 corn area to decline 6% from ‘13/14 area

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 total corn crop at 77.99 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop estimate of 75.95 MMT

 

India’s government data planted area between June 1st – July 24th

  • Rice planted on 16.57 MH vs. 19.0 MH a year ago
  • Corn planted on 4.33 MH vs. 7.12 MH a year ago
  • Oilseeds planted on 10.79 MH vs. 15.31 MH a year ago
  • Soybeans planted on 7.78 MH vs. 11.0 MH a year ago

 

Turkey bought 165,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Aug-Oct shipment

 

Turkey bought 65,000 tons of feed barley optional origin for Aug-Oct shipment

 

Morocco seeing soymeal for Nov shipment

 

Japan eyeing corn.

 

COPA said for the week ending July 23rd Canadian crushers crushed 155,723 tons of canola , down 1.4% from a week ago

 

COPA said for the week ending July 23rd Canadian crushers crushed 21,474 tons of soybeans, up 3.3% from a week ago

 

European Commission estimated EU 28 2014 corn crop at 70.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 70.4 MMT and up 8.4% from 2013

 

European Commission estimated EU 28 2014 barley crop at 55.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.3 MMT and down 5.9% from 2013

 

European Commission estimated EU28 2014 soft wheat crop at 137.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and up 1.9% from 2013.

 

Saskatchewan’s government estimated that 2-3 MA of crops have been destroyed due to heavy rains in the beginning of July

 

Saskatchewan government said as of July 21st 64% of winter wheat is in good to excellent condition vs. 73% a year ago

 

Saskatchewan government said as of July 21st 78% of spring wheat is in good to excellent condition vs. 87% a year ago

 

Saskatchewan government said as of July 21st 80% of durum wheat is in good to excellent condition vs. 87% a year ago

 

Saskatchewan government said as of July 21st 68% of canola crop is in good to excellent condition vs. 82% a year ago

 

Saskatchewan government said as of July 21st 75% of barley is in good to excellent condition vs. 83% a year ago

 

Saskatchewan government said as of July 21st 74% of soybean is in good to excellent condition .

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low today of 3588.

 

Sept Minneapolis wheat low of the day was 617 which matched the contract low.

 

Weekly COT supplemental report. Large spec positions as of July 22nd , futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 73,818
  • KC wheat short 3,222
  • Corn short 4,564
  • Soybeans short 66,082
  • Soymeal long 2,927
  • Bean oil short 25,212

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 4K
  • Corn bought 3K
  • Beans sold 1K
  • Meal bought 1K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Doane’s eastern leg of the Midwest crop tour starts on Sunday and end Tuesday
  • Malaysian palm oil markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for the end of Ramadan.
  • Inaugural Canadian crop tour starts on Monday and ends on Thursday, estimates of spring wheat, durum and canola expected on Thursday afternoon
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST . Early expectations are
    • Corn conditions unchanged from a week ago at 76% good to excellent
    • Bean conditions unchanged from a week ago at 73% good to excellent
    • Spring wheat conditions unchanged from a week ago at 70% good to excellent

 

Open outcry option players:

Corn:

Bache sold 1500 U 340 puts

Bache sold 1300 U 350 puts/sold 494 CU

Bache bot 1000 Z 400 calls/sold 270 CZ

Mizuho bot 1000 Z 410 straddles/sold 1000 Z 370 straddles

Rand bot 500 Z 420 puts

Rand sold 500 H 390 calls/340 put strangles

 

Beans:

FI bot 3500 short dated U 1060-1000 put spreads

Fi sold 1000 U 1040 puts/1170 call strangles

Mizuho bot 1000 X 1000 puts/sold 250 X 1080 straddles

Mizuho bot 500 U 1100-1140 call spreads

RJO sold 1000 X 1120 calls/bot 296 SX

RJO sold 400 X 1000 puts/bot 400 X 1160 calls/sold 200 SX

 

Wheat:

Tenco bot 2000 Z 480 puts

Rosenthal bot 1400 H 450 puts

ABN sold 500 Z 500 puts/600 call strangles

FI bot 500 Z 540-500 put spreads

 

Meal:

Rosenthal sold 500 Z 350 straddles

ADM sold 300 V 380 calls

ADM sold 300 Z 390 puts

Rand bot 345 H 300 puts/sold 115 H 340 puts

 

Oil:

RJO bot 300 Z 40 puts

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn

U vol 25 ¾ 360 str 20 ½-21

V vol 24 370 str 29-30

Z vol 23 370 str 38 ½-39 ½

H vol 22 ½ 380 str 51 ¼ -52 ¼

K vol 22 ¼ 390 str 59-60

N vol 22 ¼ 400 str 67-68

Z15 vol 21 ½ 410 str 79 ½-80 ½

 

Beans

U vol 25 1110 str 61-63

X vol 23 1080 str 98-100

F vol 20 ½ 1100 str 114-117

H vol 20 1080 str 128-132

K vol 19 1100 str 140-145

N vol 18 ¼ 1100 str 146-151

 

Wheat

U vol 26 ½ 540 str 28-30

Z vol 22 560 str 51-53

H vol 20 ½ 580 str 66-70

K vol 20 600 str 75-85

 

KC wheat

U vol 24 ½ 630 str 33-37

Z vol 20 ¼ 650 str 58-60

H vol 19 ¼ 650 str 73-77

K vol 19 660 str 84-88

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 20 ½ 630 str 28-30

Z vol 18 630 str 50-56

H vol 17 ¾ 650 str 63-69

 

Meal

U vol 27.5 370 str 22.5-24

V vol 24.75 350 str 28.5-30

Z vol 23.5 350 str 36.5-38

F vol 20.5 350 str 38.5-40

 

Bean oil

U vol 17.5 36 str 130-150

V vol 17.25 36 str 190-220

Z vol 16.75 36 str 270-285

F vol 16.5 36.5 str 300-320

H vol 16.25 36.5 str 340-370

 

Crush quotes

OPEN               CLOSE

AUG          59-62               59.5-60

SEP            96.5-1.00       97-1.01

OCT           91.5-93           91-93

DEC            86.5-87           85-86

JAN            79-80               77.5-79

MCH          77-78               74-76.5

MAY          75.5-76            73-75

JLY              75-76               73.75-75

AUG5        75-80.5           75-80

 

Crush and oil share players

  • No oil share pit players
  • ADM bought 300 Dec crush sold 300 Jan crush at 7.5-7.75

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE