From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

July futures expired today at noon CST.

  • July beans expired at 1295 down ¾
  • July corn expired at 390 ¼ down 9 ½
  • July wheat expired at 549 ¾ up 35
  • July KC wheat expired at 652 ½ up 18 ¼
  • July meal expired at 421.50 down .30
  • July bean oil expired at 3675 up 4

 

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 377,520 tons expecting 325,000 – 535,000 tons
  • Corn at 926,329 tons expecting 835,000 – 1.2 million tons
  • Beans at 115,280 tons expecting 30,000 – 75,000 tons

 

FSA said a total of 383,000 acres have been destroyed in Iowa and Illinois due to flooding.

 

FSA said up to 2.0 million acres have been damaged due to flooding.

 

Israel seeks 108,000 tons of optional origin corn for Sept-Oct shipment

 

Israel seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Aug-Oct shipment

 

China Times reported over the weekend that China may reject new types of GMO corn this year due to safety concerns.

 

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said China’s 2014 summer grain crop is at 136.6 MMT vs. 131.85 MMT in 2013

 

Safras e Mercado said as of Friday Brazil has sold 82% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 84% a year ago and unchanged from the five year average

 

Porto Alegre market analyst estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 total corn planting at 38.8 MA down .1% from ‘13/14

 

Porto Alegre market analyst estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 soybean planting at 76.5 MA up 2.9% from ‘13/14

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s January – June biodiesel exports at 650,000 tons vs. 369,000 tons a year ago

 

Oil World estimated 2014 EU28 rapeseed crop at 22.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.4 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 21.2 MMT

 

Oil World estimated 2014 Germany rapeseed crop at 5.9 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 5.8 MMT in 2013.

 

Oil World estimated 2014 France rapeseed crop at 5.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.3 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 4.4 MMT

 

Oil World estimated Poland’s 2014 rapeseed crop at 2.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.6 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 2.8 MMT

 

Oil World estimated UK 2014 rapeseed crop at 2.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 2.1 MMT in 2013.

 

Citi Group forecasted 4th quarter average price of US corn at $3.70

 

Citi Group forecasted 4th quarter US bean average price at $10.50

 

Citi Group forecasted 4th quarter US wheat average price at $5.10

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 586,000 tons of grain between July 1st – July 11th

 

Lebanon bought 7,000 Black Sea origin wheat

 

Euronext November milling wheat made new contract lows today.

 

Estimates for NOPA’s June crush report

  • Crush – average estimate 119.486 MB , range of estimates are 116.125- 125.0 MB . May crush was 128.824 MB and June 2013 crush was 119.05 MB
  • Bean oil stocks – average estimate 1.895 billion pounds (smallest since June 2005) , range of estimates are 1.840 B – 1.955 B. May bean oil stocks were 1.970 B and June 2013 crush was 2.3 billion lbs.
  • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In May meal exports were 465,301 tons and in June 2013 exports were 415,331 tons.

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 4K
  • Corn bought 5K
  • Beans bought 5K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting
    • Good to excellent
      • Beans – floor analysts range is 1% lower to 2% higher from a week ago and Reuters poll average is unchanged from a week ago (a week ago bean condition was 72% good to excellent)
      • Corn – floor analysts range is 1% lower to 2% higher from a week ago and Reuters poll average is unchanged from a week ago (a week ago corn condition was 75% good to excellent)
      • Spring wheat – floor analysts range is 1% lower to 3% higher and Reuters poll average is up 1% from a week ago. (a week ago spring wheat condition was 70% good to excellent)
      • Winter wheat harvest – floor analysts estimate is 70% complete , no Reuters estimate. (a week ago winter wheat harvest was 57% complete)
  • NOPA June crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Malaysian palm oil markets are closed tomorrow for holiday
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s July 1-15th palm oil export estimates on Wednesday.
  • Argentine truckers plan to strike on July 21st

 

Open outcry option players:

  • ABN bought 4,500 Nov bean 1040/960 put spreads at 18 debit and bought 875 Nov futures at 1082
  • ABN bought 6,000 Nov 1040 puts and sold 3,000 Nov bean 1100 puts at 1 ½ debit and bought 360 Nov futures at 1081
  • Rand bought 16,000 Nov bean 1040 puts and sold 8,000 Nov 1100 puts at 1 ¼ – 1 ½ debit and bought 960 Nov futures at 1081 (My broker said they are rolling their Nov 1100 puts position)
  • GFI sold 2,000 Nov bean 1100 puts at 53 ½ – 54 3/8 and sold 1,040 Nov bean futures at 1084
  • RJO sold 1,000 Nov bean 1160 calls at 16-16 1/8 and bought 264 Nov bean futures at 1078
  • ABN bought 1,000 Nov bean 1400 calls at ¾ -7/8
  • FI sold 4,000 Sept short dated corn 400 puts at 20 (My broker said this is a closing position. FI is long over 12,000 of these puts)
  • FC Stone bought 1,000 Dec corn 380/350 put spreads at 11 1/8 and bought 220 Dec corn futures at 384
  • JP Morgan bought 2,000 Dec corn 470 calls at 3 and sold 220 Dec futures at 388
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Sept corn 430 calls at 1 ½ and sold 80 Sept corn at 380
  • GFI sold 1,500 March corn 380/400 put spreads at 9 ¾
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Dec wheat 550/510 put spreads at 16 vs. futures at 551 ½
  • ICAP bought 500 Sept wheat 550 calls at 7 ¼
  • Jefferies bought 500 Sept wheat 500 puts at 4 5/8
  • RJO bought 700 Aug meal 410 puts and sold 700 week 2 soymeal 360 puts at 15.00 debit
  • RJO bought 900 Dec bean oil 38 puts at 200-205

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

Q vol 23 ¼ 380 str 13 ¼-13 ¾

U vol 24 ¼ 380 str 24 ½-25

V vol 23 390 str 32 ½-33

Z vol 22 ½ 390 str 41 ½-42

H vol 21 ¾ 400 str 53 ¾-54 ¼

K vol 22 410 str 62-63

N vol 22 410 str 69-70 ½

Z15 20 ¾ 430 str 81 ½-83

 

Beans:

Q vol 22 1200 str 37-39

U vol 21 ½ 1110 str 62-64

X vol 20 1080 str 90-92

F vol 18 ¼ 1100 str 106 ½-107

H vol 18 1100 str 121 ½-125 ½

K vol 17 ½ 1120 str 134-138

N vol 17 1120 str 140-145

 

Wheat:

Q vol 23 5/8 540 str 18-19

U vol 22 ¼ 540 str 31-33

Z vol 20 560 str 53-54

H vol 18 ¾ 580 str 67-70

K vol 18 ¾ 600 str 77-80

 

KC wheat:

Q vol 23 ¼ 650 str 21-23

U vol 22 ½ 650 str 37-40

Z vol 19 ¼ 660 str 58-61

H vol 17 ¼ 660 str 67-73

K vol 17 ¼ 670 str 78-85

 

Minneapolis wheat:

U vol 19 640 str 32-35

Z vol 17 ¾ 650 str 52-57

H vol 17 ¼ 660 str 64-70

 

Meal:

Q vol 28.5 390 str 16-17

U vol 24 360 str 23-25

V vol 22.5 350 str 28-30

Z vol 22 350 str 36-38

F vol 20.5 350 str 37.5-39.5

 

Bean oil:

Q vol 17.25 37 str 85-100

U vol 17.25 37 str 160-175

V vol 17 37 str 215-230

Z vol 16.5 37 str 280-295

F vol 16.25 37.5 str 310-335

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE