From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:  (some of this news is from overnight or early this morning that I missed in my morning recap)

 

Tomorrow is position day for July futures . Traders should be out of long positions by tomorrow’s close or risk delivery. Early expectations for deliveries Friday night are

  • Meal 0 deliveries (0 receipts are registered as of yesterday afternoon)
  • Beans 0-150 deliveries  (150 receipts are registered as of yesterday afternoon )
  • Bean oil 500-2,000 deliveries  (10,040 receipts are registered as of yesterday afternoon)
  • Corn 0 deliveries (6 receipts are registered as of yesterday afternoon)
  • Wheat 0-50 deliveries (194 receipts are registered as of yesterday afternoon)
  • KC wheat 0-50 deliveries (54 receipts are registered as of yesterday afternoon)
  • Minneapolis wheat about 500 deliveries are expected
  • There are no early estimates for rice deliveries but there are 308 receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon
  • There are no early estimates for oat deliveries but there were 15 receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon

 

Hearing China bought 1-2 cargoes of Brazilian beans yesterday for August shipment

 

Hearing China bought 1-2 cargoes of US beans yesterday for October shipment

 

Hearing Brazil bought a few more cargoes of US HRW wheat yesterday

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp canceled tender for 20,000 US corn and 15,000 US beans for August shipment , importers hope prices will fall.

 

Jordan retenders for 100,000 tons of hard wheat optional origin for Dec- Jan shipment

 

Indonesia cut palm oil export tax to 10.5% in July vs. 12% currently

 

Dorab Mistry estimated 2014 Malaysian palm oil output at 19.7-19.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 19.5-19.7 MMT

 

Dorab Mistry estimated 2014 Indonesia palm oil output at 30.5 MMT

 

Dorab Mistry said palm oil prices could fall to 2,300-2,500 ringgit per ton over the next few weeks

 

Dorab Mistry said palm oil price may rise to 2,600 ringgits if dry weather continues over next couple of weeks

 

Dorab Mistry said ‘13/14 global biodiesel demand to increase by 1.5 M this season vs. prior view of an increase of 3.0 M tons

 

Dorab Mistry said ‘13/14 global edible oil demand seen rising 5.0 M tons this season

 

Dorab Mistry expects India to raise import taxes on refined oils in September

 

IGC estimated ‘14/15 global corn crop at 963.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 955.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 972.0 MMT

 

IGC estimated ‘14/15 China corn crop at 220.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 215.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 218.5 MMT

 

IGC estimated ‘14/15 global corn stocks at 180.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 172.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 stocks of 167.0 MMT

 

IGC estimated ‘14/15 global wheat crop at 699.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 694.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 710.0 MMT

 

IGC estimated ‘14/15 global wheat stocks at 194.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 187.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 stocks of 192.0 MMT

 

Analysts estimated India’s ‘13/14 palm oil imports at 7.6 MMT down 8.4% from a year ago (first decline in 4 years)

 

Analysts estimated India’s ‘13/14 bean oil imports at 1.75 MMT up 61% from a year ago

 

Analysts estimated India’s ‘13/14 sunflower oil imports at 1.45 MMT up 49% from a year ago

 

CEC estimated South Africa’s 2014 corn crop at 13.89 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.548 MMT and vs. Reuters poll estimate of 13.58 MMT

 

India monsoon rains were 31% below normal for the week ending June 25th

 

Algeria imported 4.86 MMT of grain between Jan – May 2014 up 28.9% from a year ago

 

Vietnam government estimated winter-spring rice crop at 20.83 MMT up 4% from a year ago

 

Vietnam exported 3.2 MMT of rice in the first half of 2014 down 9.9% from a year ago

 

Sept KC wheat closed below the 200 day moving average of 716. KC WU settled at 714 ¾

 

Dec bean oil closed below the 200 day moving average of 4105. Dec bean oil settled at 4086

 

Dec meal closed above the 50 day moving average of 392.80. Dec meal settled at 397.10

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat traded even
  • Corn bought 3K
  • Beans bought 7K
  • Meal bought 3K
  • Bean oil bought 500

 

Stats Canada comes out tomorrow morning with their Canadian 2014 acreage estimates. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

  • All wheat average estimate 24.5 MA vs. April estimate of 24.9363 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 26.2565
  • Durum average estimate 4.7 MA vs. April estimate of 4.2 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 4.965 MA
  • Canola average estimate 19.9 MA vs. April estimate of 19.801 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 19.9358 MA
  • Oats average estimate 3.2 MA vs. April estimate of 3.1876 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 3.1676 MA
  • Barley average estimate 6.5 MA vs. April estimate of 6.3106 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 7.0825 MA
  • Flax average estimate 1.7 MA vs. April estimate of 1.715 MA and vs. 2013 acreage of 1.035 MA
  • Corn average estimate 3.3 MA vs. April estimate of 3.3688 MA and vs. 2013 estimate of 3.6893
  •  Soybeans average estimate 5.1 MA vs. April estimate of 5.2644 MA and vs. 2013 estimate of 4.5189 MA

 

Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

 

Open outcry option players

Corn:

FI bot 4000 short dated U 400 puts

FCS bot 1500 Z 440 puts/sold 1500 H 450 puts

FI bot 1000 short dated U 450-480 call spreads

ICAP bot 2000 Q 410 puts/470 call strangles

ICAP bot 2000 U 440-480 call spreads/sold 2000 U 400 puts

Newedge bot 1500 Z 440 puts/sold 1500 H 450 puts

ICAP bot 1000 H 460 straddles

ADM sold 1000 Z 470 puts/bot 1000 Z 500 calls

 

Beans:

ADM Bot 500 Aug 1380/1450 Call spds 21.5 db

Goldman Bot 300 Nov 1200/1100 Put spds 29 db

ABN Bot 250 Aug 1400 Calls 25

Rosenthal Bot 200 Aug 1400 Calls 24-24.5

Obrien Sold 200 Aug 1300 Puts/ Sold 200 Aug 1460 Calls 20 credit

Rand Bot 600 Nov 1200 Puts/ Sold 600 Dec Corn 440 straddles 13-14 credit

ICAP Bot 500 Nov 1140/1100 Put spds 9 db

FI Bot 800 SDFU 1200 Puts 29

Bunge Bot 500WK1  1350 Puts 13-14

Bunge Bot 500 WK1 1320 Puts 6

Rosenthal Bot 400 X14/N15 CSO even Calls 6

Jefferies Bot 1800 Sep 1100 Puts 4.125

Rosenthal Sold 1000 Aug 1450 Calls 12.125-12.25/ Bot 240 Aug futures 1375

ADM Sold 500 Nov 1060 Puts 8.5

ADM Sold 300 Aug 1420 Calls 20

Rosenthal Bot 200 Nov 1180 Puts 34.25-34.5

ADM Bot 500 Nov 1300 Calls 37-37.5

EDF Bot 300 Aug 1390/1450 Call spds 18.75 db

ADM Bot 600 Q/X CSO 150 Calls 17-18

FI Bot 250 Nov 1040 Puts/ Bot 250 Nov 1400 Calls 20.75 db

Macquarie Sold 225 Aug 1200 Puts/ Sold 225 Aug 1500 Calls 5.875 credit/ Sold 18 Aug futures 1377

 

Wheat:

Tenco bot 800 Z 760 calls

ICAP sold 500 Z 700-750 call spreads

 

Meal:

Bache sold 1200 Q 460 calls

FI bot 500 V 360 puts/bot 250 SX

Rosenthal sold 200 week 2 445-430 put spreads

 

Oil:

FI sold 1000 Q 39-42 call spreads

FI sold 250 Q 40 ½ calls

FI sold 250 Q 41 ½ calls

JPM bot 500 Q 40 puts

RJO sold 250 Q 40 ½ calls

Newedge bot 400 Q 40 ½-39 put spreads/sold 400 Q 42 calls

FI sold 200 Z 40 ½ calls

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

Q vol 30 ¼ 440 str 30-30 ¾

U vol 28 ¼ 440 str 39-39 ½

V vol 26 ½ 440 str 46 ½-47 ½

Z vol 25 ¼ 440 str 56 ¼-57 ¼

H vol 25 ¾ 450 str 71 ¾ -72 ¾

K vol 24 ½ 460 str 82-83

N vol 24 ¼ 470 str 89 ½ -91 ½

Z15 vol 21 460 str 89 ½-91 ½

 

Beans

Q vol 23 ¼ 1380 str 72-74

U vol 23 ¼ 1280 str 93-95

X vol 21 ¼ 1240 str 120-122

F vol 19 ¼ 1260 str 134-137

H vol 18 1260 str 143-146

K vol 17 1260 str 152-156

N vol 16 ½ 1260 str 159-163

 

Wheat

Q vol 27 580 str 35-38

U vol 25 ½ 580 str 46-48

Z vol 23 600 str 69-71

H vol 21 ¾ 620 str 85-89

 

KC wheat

Q vol 27 ½ 710 str 44-46

U vol 26 710 str 58-60

Z vol 22 720 str 79-81

H vol 21 ½ 720 str 95-98

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 21 ½ 690 str 43-49

Z vol 20 ½ 700 str 68-74

H vol 18 ½ 710 str 80-86

 

Meal

Q vol 26.5 450 str 27-29

U vol 25.5 420 str 34-35.5

V vol 25 400 str 39-40.5

Z vol 23.25 400 str 47-48.5

F vol 21 400 str 47-48

 

Bean oil

Q vol 21.25 40.5 str 185-205

U vol 21 41 str 260-275

V vol 29.5 41 str 305-325

Z vol 18.25 41 str 360-380

F vol 17.75 410 str 390-420

 

Crush settlements  

  • N = 32.75
  • Q = 46
  • U = 85
  • XV = 81.25
  • XZ = 78.75
  • F = 70.75
  • H = 69.5
  • K =69.25

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE