From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

Brazil government to reduce to zero import tariff for non-mercosur wheat for up to 1.0 MMT through August 15th – Reuters

 

China sold 272,387 tons or 9.9% of corn at auction overnight. They offered 2.73 MMT of corn

 

Philippines bought 85,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for Sept – Nov shipment

 

CCC seeks 17,000 tons of US wheat for donation

 

Jordan canceled tender for 100,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Dec-Jan shipment due to high prices.

 

Oil World

  • Said Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and US exported 22.25 MMT of soybeans between April – May up 6.3% from a year ago
  • Said Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and US exported 82.3 MMT (record for this time frame) between September – May up 27% from a year ago
  • Said China imported 54.38 MMT  of beans between Sept – May up 32% from a year ago
  • Said China imported 14.04 MMT of beans between April – May vs. 14.75 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated China’s June bean imports at 7.5 MMT (near record high) vs. 6.9 MMT a year ago
  • Said Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and US exported 4.486 MMT of bean oil between Oct- May up 5.2% from a year ago
  • Said India imported 1.279 MMT of bean oil between Oct – May up 88% from a year ago
  • Estimated China’s ‘14/15 flaxseed imports at 350,000 vs. ‘13/14 imports of 250,000 tons
  • Estimated China’s ‘14/15 flaxseed crush at 600,000 tons vs. ’13/14 crush of 530,000 tons
  • Estimated Canada’s 2014 flaxseed output at 950,000 tons vs. 712,000 tons a year ago
  • Estimated Canada’s ‘14/15 flaxseed exports at 730,000 tons vs. 555,000 tons a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of June 17th Russia has harvested 121,700 tons of grain on 40,700 hectares with an average yield of 2.99 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 682,600 tons of grain on 140,200 hectares with an average yield of 4.87 TPH

 

Today was the second day of the 2 day FOMC policy meeting .

 

Headlines from Fed announcement at 1 pm CST today –Bloomberg

  • *FED SAYS HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE POLICY `REMAINS APPROPRIATE’
  • *FED TAPERS BOND BUYING TO $35 BLN MONTHLY PACE FROM $45 BLN
  • *FED REDUCES MONTHLY TREASURY BOND PURCHASES TO $20 BLN
  • *FED REPEATS LOW RATE LIKELY FOR CONSIDERABLE TIME AFTER QE END
  • *FED REPEATS LOW RATE LIKELY FOR CONSIDERABLE TIME AFTER QE ENDS
  • *FED SAYS JOBLESS RATE IS LOWER, STILL `ELEVATED’
  • *FED LEAVES FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0% TO 0.25%
  • *FED OFFICIALS SEE AT LEAST 2.5% FED FUNDS RATE END OF 2016
  • *FED OFFICIALS SEE AT LEAST 1% FED FUNDS RATE END OF 2015
  • *FED REPEATS MEASURED TAPER STEPS TO CONTINUE IF OUTLOOK HOLDS
  • *FED SAYS HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE POLICY `REMAINS APPROPRIATE’
  • *FED SAYS BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT RESUMED ADVANCE
  • *FED SAYS HOUSING SECTOR REMAINS SLOW
  • *FED SAYS JOBLESS RATE IS LOWER, STILL `ELEVATED’
  • *FED SAYS HOUSEHOLD SPENDING `APPEARS TO BE RISING MODERATELY’
  • *FED SAYS LABOR MARKET `GENERALLY SHOWED FURTHER IMPROVEMENT’
  • *FED LEAVES FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0% TO 0.25%
  • *FED SAYS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY `HAS REBOUNDED IN RECENT MONTHS’
  • *FED PARES MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES BUYING TO $15 BLN MONTHLY
  • *FED TAPERS BOND BUYING PROGRAM BY $10 BLN
  • *FED REDUCES MONTHLY TREASURY BOND PURCHASES TO $20 BLN
  • *FED REPEATS LOW RATE LIKELY FOR CONSIDERABLE TIME AFTER QE END
  • *FED TAPERS BOND BUYING TO $35 BLN MONTHLY PACE FROM $45 BLN
  • Fed Officials Raise Forecast Target Rates for Next 2 Years
  • *MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE FORECAST FOR 2016 RAISED TO 2.5% VS 2.25%
  • *MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE FORECAST FOR 2015 RAISED TO 1.13% VS 1%
  • *MORE FED OFFICIALS SEE AT LEAST 1% FED FUNDS RATE END OF 2015
  • *MORE FED OFFICIALS SEE AT LEAST 2.5% FED FUNDS RATE END OF 2016

 

July beans closed below the 100 day moving average of 1416. July beans settled at 1409

 

September KC wheat closed well above the 200 day moving average of 716 ½ . Sept KC wheat settled at 727 ¼.

 

Dec meal closed below the 50 day moving average of 391.40. Dec meal settled at 390.40.

 

Brazil markets are closed tomorrow for holiday. Trading resumes on Friday.

 

Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST

 

Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting

  • Wheat – 350-550,000 tons
  • Corn – 350-650,000 tons
  • Beans – old crop -100,000 to +100,000 ; new crop 350-550,000 tons
  • Meal – old crop 0-100,000 tons ; new crop 0-150,000 tons
  • Bean oil 0-35,000 tons

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +110 BCF

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 3K
  • Corn bought 1K
  • Beans bought 1K
  • Meal bought 1K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Open outcry option players

Corn:

FI bot 500 U 405 puts/sold 500 N 640 puts

ABN bot 500 Z 450 calls

JPM sold 300 Z 450 calls

Bache bot 600 Q 460-485 call spreads/sold 600U 405 puts

ABN bot 500 U 400 puts

 

Beans:

Rosenthal bot 500 Q 1380 calls

Bache sold 500 X 1100 puts

ADM bot 500 X 1000 puts/sold 500 N 1390 puts

ABN bot 500 Q 1380 calls/sold 500 X 1260 calls

RJO bot 350 Q 1380 calls/sold 350 X 1260 calls

 

KC Wheat:

Tenco bot 300 KCU 690 puts

 

Meal:

JPM sold 500 U 460 calls

JPM sold 400 Q 400-390 put spreads

 

Oil:

RJO bot 500 Z 40 ½-42 ½ call spreads/sold 500 Z 38 puts

Rosenthal bot 300 U 41 calls/sold 300 SX

RJO sold 250 Z 39-42 call spreads/bot 250 Z 36 ½ puts

JPM bot 200 Z 40 straddles

JPM sold 200 V 42 calls

FCS sold 200 N 39 calls

Rosenthal bot 200 N 40 puts

 

Crush

Rosenthal sold 11 July crush 30 puts at 5

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN            CLOSE

JLY              30-32             29-30

AUG           43-45            43-45.5

SEP             97-99.5         95-97

OCT            89-90.5         90-92

DEC            86-866.5       87.5-88

JAN            76-77             77-78

MCH          73-74             74-74.5

MAY          71.5-72.5      72-73

JLY5            68-70             70-71

AUG5         69-77            70-77

 

Crush and oil share players

  • Jefferies sold 400 July/Aug/Aug crush at -6.5
  • Jefferies sold 60 July/Oct/Oct crush at -1.06
  • Jefferies sold 20 Dec crush at 88
  • Tenco sold 80 Dec crush at 87.5
  • Rand bought 300 Dec oil/meal at 34.08% (oil share)

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE