From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News:

 

Oil World estimates

  • Russia’s 2014 rapeseed crop estimated at 1.5 MMT vs. 1.4 MMT in 2013
  • Russia’s ‘14/15 rapeseed exports estimated at 150,000 tons vs. 176,000 tons in ‘13/14
  • Russia’s 2014 rapeseed domestic use estimated at 1.3 MMT vs. 1.2 MMT in 2013
  • Russia’s 2014 rapeseed crush estimated at 1.2 MMT unchanged from a year ago
  • Ukraine 2014 rapeseed crop estimated at 2.2 MMT vs. 2.5 MMT in 2013
  • Ukraine’s ‘14/15 rapeseed exports estimated at 2.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 2.2 MMT
  • Ukraine’s ‘14/15 rapeseed domestic use estimated at 175,000 tons vs. 228,000 tons in ‘13/14
  • Ukraine’s 2014 rapeseed crush estimated at 150,000 tons vs. 200,000 tons in 2013

 

Pakistan bought 50,000 tons of Black Sea origin rapeseed for October shipment

 

China’s intensified restrictions on imports of DDGs pressured corn prices as they appeared to remove hope that some unshipped bookings would make it to China. It now appear likely that China’s door is shut to U.S. DDGs for the time being but this is not a big surprise to the market after last month’s announcement by China that it was banning DDGs with any traces of MIR 162 , a variety which has been accepted by other countries, including the EU. –Shawn McCambridge

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out this morning at +90 BCF expecting +96 BCF

 

Indian monsoon rains were 24% above average the past week

 

Today was the last day of the western route Doane’s crop tour. The eastern route starts Sunday and ends Tuesday.

 

The Wheat Quality Council’s 3 day wheat tour estimated US 2014 spring wheat yield at 48.6 BPA (highest since 1992) vs. 44.9 BPA a year ago and vs. five year average of 44.7 BPA

 

The Wheat Quality Council’s 3 day wheat tour estimated US 2014 durum wheat yield at 36.6 BPA vs. 41.7 BPA a year ago

 

SAGIS said South Africa’s June corn ending stocks at 5.498 MMT vs. 1.663 MMT at the end of May

 

SAGIS said South Africa exported 359,605 tons of corn at the end of June

 

Australian wheat yields under pressure as dry weather seen persisting -Reuters

 

Dec corn made new contract lows today of 364 ¼

 

Sept KC wheat made new contract lows today of 618 ¾

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 1K
  • Corn sold 3K
  • Beans bought 4K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil bought 1K

 

Tomorrow’s reports/events

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their Malaysian July 1-25th palm oil export estimates
  • August options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

 

 

Open outcry option players

Corn:

ABN sold 2000 Z’15 400-360 put spreads

Bache sold 1000 Z 340 puts/sold 220 CZ

RJO sold 1000 Z 350 puts/370 call strangles

ADM bot 1000 Z 360 puts/sold 1000 U 345 puts

ADM sold 500 Z’15 440 calls

RJO bot 2500 V 320/340/360 put butterfly

RJO sold 2500 Z 330/380/430 put butterfly

 

Beans:

RJO bot 500 Oct 1140 calls 25.5-26

Rosenthal Bot 400 Nov 1100 Puts 51-52

ADM Bot 200 SDFU 1100 Puts 34.25-24.5

Jefferies Bot 300 Nov 1000 Puts 16.75/ Bot 60 Nov futures 1094

ABN Bot 250 Nov 900 Puts 4.125

Rosenthal Bot 350 Aug 1240 Calls 1.75

RJO Bot 1000 Nov 1060 Puts 20.75-20.875/ Bot 390 Nov futures 1088

RJO Bot 500 Nov 1160 Calls 20.75-20.875

Rand Bot 200 Nov 1040 Puts 29.5

ABN Sold 250 Nov 1160 Calls 20.5

ABN Sold 500 Nov 1180 Calls 16.5

JP Morgan Bot 400 Oct 1050/950 Put spds 21 db

Rosenthal bot 600 Aug 1180 Puts 1.25

Obrien Bot 600 Nov 1000 Puts/ Sold 300 Nov 1100 Straddles 64 credit

FI Bot 2000 SDFU 1060/1000 Put spds 13-13.875 db

RJO Bot 250 Nov 1080/1000 Put spds 27.25 db

Macquarie Bot 250 Nov 1060 Puts/ Sold 375 Nov 1000 Puts 19.625 db/ Bot 15 Nov futures 1090

JP Morgan Bot 300 Nov 1080/960 Put spds /Sold 300 Nov 1160 Calls 15.75-16 db

 

Wheat:

Tenco bot 500 K 700 calls

 

Meal:

Bunge sold 500 Z 360 calls

Screen sold 1200 Q 395 calls

JPM bot 625 Z 350-300 put spreads/sold 625 Z 390 calls

 

Oil:

New Edge bot 300 F 36 ½ puts/old 300 F 39 calls

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

Q vol 27 360 str 3-5

U vol 25 ¾ 360 str 20 ¾-21 ¾

V vol 24 370 str 29 ½-30 ½

Z vol 233 370 str 38 ¾ -39 ¼

H vol 22 ½ 380 str 51 ¼-52 ¼

K vol 22 ¼ 390 str 59-60 ½

N vol 22 ¼ 400 str 67-68 ½

Z15 vol 21 ½ 410 str 79 ½-80 ½

 

Beans

Q vol 24 ½ 1210 str 17-19

U vol 25 1110 str 62-64

X vol 22 ½ 1080 str 97-100

F vol 20 1100 str 112-114 ½

H vol 19 ½ 1080 str 126-130

K vol 18 ¾ 1100 str 139-144

N vol 18 1100 str 145-150

 

Wheat

Q vol 23 530 str 7-9

U vol 23 ¾ 530 str 28-30

Z vol 21 550 str 51-53

H vol 19 ¾ 570 str 67-69

K vol 19 ½ 590 str 78-82

 

KC wheat

Q vol 23 620 str 7-9

U vol 23 ½ 620 str 32-34

Z vol 19 ½ 630 str 55-59

H vol 18 ½ 640 str 69-74

K vol 18 ½ 650 str 80-86

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 20 ½ 620 str 26-30

Z vol 18 630 str 47-52

H vol 17 ¾ 640 str 63-69

 

Meal

U vol 27.5 370 str 23-25

V vol 24.75 350 str 28.5-30.5

Z vol 23.25 350 str 36.5-38.5

F vol 21.75 350 str 38.5-40.5

 

Bean oil

U vol 17.5 36.5 str 140-155

V vol 17.5 36.5 str 205-225

Z vol 16.75 36.5 str 270-290

F vol 16.25 36.5 str 305-325

 

Crush quotes

OPEN                CLOSE

AUG       57-60                60-62

SEP         95.5-1.00         95-97

OCT        90-92                90-91.5

DEC         84.5-85            85-85.5

JAN         76.5-77.5        77.5-79.5

MCH       74-75                74-76

MAY        73.5-75            75-76

JLY            74-75.5            75-76

AUG5      75-80                78-80

 

Crush and oil share players

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE