From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

Correction – from this morning’s email. USDA announced 117,000 tons of US new crop beans sold to China.

 

China’s customs data showed China imported 45.44 MMT of beans between Oct-May vs. 34.66 MMT a year ago

 

China’s customs data showed China imported 27.8 MMT of beans between Jan – May up 35.3% from a year ago

 

China has harvested 50+% of their winter wheat crop on 11.47 MH

 

Iraq seeks 30,000 tons of rice from the US , South America, or Vietnam

 

Morocco seeks 163,500 tons of local soft wheat

 

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 518,866 tons expecting 425,000 – 525,000
  • Corn at 1,147,968 tons expecting 900,000 – 1.15 M
  • Beans at 123,115 tons expecting 80,000-175,000 tons

 

Vietnam Food Association said Vietnam exported 585,536 tons of rice in May down 10% from a month ago

 

Nov beans closed below the 50 day moving average of 1225 ½ . Nov beans settled at 1224 ¼

 

July Minneapolis wheat closed below the 200 day moving average of 712 ¼ . July Minneapolis settled at 704.

 

July meal closed above the 50 day moving average of 481.20. July meal settled at 482.20

 

Today was the last day of Deutsche Bank roll. On the close

  • 2,110 WN’14 – WN ’15 spreads traded at 72 ¼ – -75 on Globex
  • 662 KC WN’14 – KC WN ’15 spreads traded at – 5 ¼ – -7 ¾ on Globex

 

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. On the close

  • 1,000 CN/CU traded in the pit at 3 ¼ – 3 ½
  • 14,000 CN/CU traded on Globex at 3 ¼ – 3 ¾
  • 200 WN/WU traded in the pit at – 12 ¼
  • 7,000 WN/WU traded on Globex at – 12 – – 12 ¼
  • 2,030 KC WN/WU traded on Globex at – 2 ¾ – -3 ¼
  • 6,137 SN/SX traded on Globex at 232-233 ½
  • 232 SN/SX traded in the pit at 232 -233 ¼
  • 4,200 SMN/SMZ traded on Globex at 84.50-85.50
  • 150 BON/BOZ traded in the pit at  – 34
  • 4,050 BON/BOZ traded on Globex at – 28 – -34

 

Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST Expecting

  • Corn conditions 78-80% good to excellent
  • Bean conditions 70-75% good to excellent
  • Bean planting 85-90% complete
  • Spring wheat condition 64-68% good to excellent
  • Spring wheat planting about 92% complete
  • Winter wheat harvest about 8% complete

 

China’s CPI and PPI comes out tonight/tomorrow

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out with their May palm oil data report tomorrow .  Based on a Reuters poll expecting

  • May palm oil stocks average estimate 1.81 MMT vs. 1.77 MMT in April
  • May palm oil output average estimate 1.67 MMT vs. 1.56 MMT in April
  • May palm oil exports average estimate 1.36 MMT vs. 1.26 MMT in April

 

Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their Malaysian June 1-10th palm oil export estimates

 

CONAB comes out tomorrow with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were

  • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 86.57 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.08 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 total corn crop estimated at 75.19 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.46 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop estimated at 6.88 MMT vs. previous estimate of  6.7 MMT

 

Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 3K
  • Corn  sold 9K
  • Beans bought 3K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil  bought 1K

 

Open outcry option players

  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Aug bean 1500/1550 call spreads at 5 ¾ -6
  • JP Morgan  bought 2,000 Aug bean 1450/1480 call spreads at 7 and sold 160 Aug bean 1395
  • Jefferies sold 1,000 July bean 1400 puts at 2 1/8
  • Jefferies bought 2,000 Dec corn 550 calls at 7 ¾
  • ADM bought 1,000 Dec corn 420 puts at 18
  • RJO bought 500 July wheat 590/610 put spreads at 6 ½
  • Tenco bought 600 July KC wheat 705 puts at 3 ½
  • Macquarie sold 300 May 340 puts at 6.50 tied to futures at 393
  • RJO sold 300 Dec  bean oil 40 calls at 145
  • EDF Mann bought 20 Aug crush 60 calls at 6

 

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

N vol 23 450 str 15-15 ½

Q vol 28 450 str 35 ½-36 ½

U vol 27 ½ 450 str 44 ½-45 ½

Z vol 26 ¼ 450 str 63-64

H vol 25 460 str 76-77 ½

Z15 vol 450 str 90-92

 

Beans

N vol 18 1460 str 37-39

Q vol 20 ¼ 1390 str 80-82

U vol 21 1260 str 94-97

X vol 20 ½ 1220 str 120-123

F vol 19 1220 str 134-138

 

Wheat

N vol 22 ¾ 610 str 20-22

Q vol 25 630 str 44-46

U vol 25 630 str 56-58

Z vol 23 ¾ 650 str 81-83

H vol 22 ¼ 670 str 103-106

 

KC wheat

N vol 25 730 str 26-28

Q vol 24 ½ 740 str 50-54

U vol 24 ½ 740 str 64-67

Z vol 22 ¾ 750 str 89-93

H vol 21 ½ 750 str 104-110

 

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 20 ¼ 700 str 18-23

U vol 21 ½ 710 str 52-57

Z vol 21 720 str 75-80

H vol 21 730 str 95-102

 

Meal

N vol 25 480 str 18.5-19.5

Q vol 25 460 str 33-35

U vol 24.75 420 str 37.50-39.50

V vol 24.25 400 str 40.5-42.5

Z vol 22.75 400 str 48-50

 

Bean oil

N vol 18.25 39 str 95-115

Q vol 18.25 39.5 str 195-215

U vol 18 39.5 str 245-265

V vol 17.5 39.5 str 285-310

Z vol 17.25 39.5 str 350-370

 

Crush quotes

 

 

 

Crush and oil share players

 

 

Estimates for Wednesday’s USDA report.

 

US 2014 wheat production estimates

  • All winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.394 BB, range of estimates are 1.330 – 1.445 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.403 BB and 2013 US winter wheat output was 1.534 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .733 BB, range of estimates are .661 – .776 BB. USDA May estimate was .746 BB and 2013 US HRW wheat output was .744 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .455 BB, range of estimates are .443 -.473 BB. USDA May estimate was .447 BB and 2013 US SRW wheat output was .565 BB
  • White winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .207 BB, range of estimates are .197-.217 BB. USDA May estimate was .209 BB and 2013 US white winter wheat output was .225 BB
  • All wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.964 BB, range of estimates are 1.903-2.041 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.963 BB and 2013 US all wheat output was 2.130 BB

 

US ‘13/14 ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .590 BB, range of estimates are .565-.625 BB. USDA May estimate was .583 BB
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.170 BB, range of estimates are 1.121 – 1.279 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.146 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .127 BB, range of estimates are .119 – .139 BB. USDA May estimate was .130 BB

 

US ‘14/15 ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .552 BB, range of estimates are .475-.658 BB. USDA May estimate was .540 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.716 BB, range of estimates are 1.405 – 2.282 BB. USDA May estimate was 1.726 BB.
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .319 BB, range of estimates are .245-.364 BB. USDA May estimate was .330 BB

 

World ‘13/14 ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 186.15 MMT, range of estimates are 181.55-188.00 MMT. USDA May estimate was 186.53 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 168.35 MMT, range of estimates are 167.50 – 169.12 MMT. USDA May estimate was 168.42 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 66.43 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0-67.50 MMT. USDA May estimate was 66.98 MMT

 

World ‘14/15 ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 187.00 MMT, range of estimates are 180.9 – 190.0 MMT. USDA May estimate was 187.42 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 181.52 MMT, range of estimate are 175.21-184.50 MMT. USDA May estimate was 181.73 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 81.97 MMT, range of estimates are 80.0 – 83.13 MMT. USDA May estimate was 82.23 MMT

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE