From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

US Census Bureau came out today about 1030 am CST with their US trade data

  • In April US imported 7.12 MB of soybeans – record for the month of April –  (expecting 8-15 MB)
  • Sept – April US imported 30.5 MB of soybeans

 

USDA estimated total ‘13/14 US bean imports at 90.0 MMT

 

Reports one Brazilian bean boat initially intended for the US is headed to Europe

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 soybean crush at 37.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 37.0 MMT

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 soymeal exports at 14.1 MMT vs. 13.7 MMT previously.

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop 86.5 MMT

 

Abiove estimated ‘13/14 Brazil bean ending stocks 4.732 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.332

 

Jordan bought 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Nov shipment

 

Oman bought 60,000 tons of Russian milling wheat for Sept shipment

 

South Korea KOCOPIA bought 50,000 tons of corn from South Africa for Sept shipment

 

Japan seeks 30,760 tons of feed wheat and seeks 36,915 tons of barley via SBS for Sept shipment

 

EU Commission estimated EU 28 2014 soft wheat crop at 137.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 135.9 MMT  and vs. 2013 soft wheat crop of 134.4 MMT

 

Egypt GASC said Egypt’s Trade Ministry issued a decision to change wheat imports specification – Reuters

 

Egypt GASC said moisture content up to 13.5% to be accepted for imported wheat – Reuters

 

Bangladesh State Grain Buyers estimated ‘14/15 grain imports at 1.1 MMT up 22% from a year ago

 

Thai Rice Exporters Association estimated 2014 rice exports at 9.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.5 MMT and vs. 6.6 MMT in 2013

 

Oil World said Brazil produced 823,000 tons of biodiesel between Jan – March 2014 vs. 799,000 tons a year ago .

  • Feed stocks use for biodiesel production included 407,000 tons of bean oil vs. 473,000 tons a year ago
  • Feed stocks use for biodiesel production included 93,000 tons of corn oil vs. 87,000 tons a year ago
  • Feed stocks use for biodiesel production included 43,000 tons of canola oil vs. 42,000 tons a year ago
  • Feed stocks use for biodiesel production included 32,000 tons of palm oil vs. 0 tons a year ago

 

Lanworth ‘14/15 US estimates

  • US corn yield estimated at 164.4 BPA
  • US corn production estimated at 13.8 BB
  • US corn planting area  estimated at 91.1 MA
  • US bean yield estimated at 44.0 BPA
  • US bean production estimated at 3.56 BB
  • US bean planting area estimated at 81.9 MA
  • US wheat production estimated at 55.6 BB
  • US HRW wheat production estimated at 762 MB

 

Nov beans closed below the 50 day moving average of 1224 ½. Nov beans settled at 1217 ¼

 

July KC wheat closed above the 200 day moving average of 708 ½. July KC settled at 713 ½

 

Today was the second day of the Deutsche Bank roll. On the close 1,354 July 2014 – July 2015 Chicago wheat traded at -65 – -64 on Globex  and 314 July 2014-July 2015 KC wheat traded at – 13 ¼ – – 12 on Globex

 

China to auction corn from reserves tomorrow .

 

US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST

 

Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST

  • Wheat – ‘13/14 – 50K to +150K , ‘14/15 325-475K
  • Corn – ‘13/14 400-550K , ‘14/15 150-250K
  • Beans – ‘13/14 – 100K to +100K , ‘14/15 500-750K
  • Meal – ‘13/14 50-150K ‘14/15 175-225K
  • Bean oil  – ‘13/14 0-25K ‘14/15 0-10K

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting + 116 BCF

 

Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their ‘14/15 US wheat estimates and their world production estimates. Previous estimates were

  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat production estimated at 1.496 BB
  • ‘14/15 US Hard red winter wheat estimated at   840 MB
  • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat estimated at 443  MB
  • ‘14/15 US white wheat estimated at 212  MB
  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat yield estimated at 44.6  BPA
  • ‘14/15 US hard red winter wheat yield estimated at   36.4 BPA
  • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat yield estimated at 60.5 BPA
  • 2013 US cotton production estimated at  12.87 million bales
  • ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop estimated at 23.3 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 70.5 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop estimated at 54.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop estimate at 87.4 MMT

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 1K
  • Corn sold 3K
  • Beans bought 2K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil bought 4K

 

Open outcry option players – quiet day on the floor today.

  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 July bean 1460 puts at 12 ½ and bought 340 July futures at 1482
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 July bean 1460 puts at 11 ¾ and bought 360 July futures at 1485
  • JP Morgan bought 2,000 Aug bean 1480/1550 call spreads at 11 ½-12 ¾
  • FI bought 1,000 Sept short dated soybean 1160/1100 put spreads at 13 (yesterday they bought 1,500 at 13-13 ¾ )
  • FI bought 1,000 Sept short dated corn 500/550 call spreads at 5 3/8
  • ABN bought 600 Sept corn 440/420 put spreads at 8
  • Mizuho bought 1,000 July wheat 640 calls at 4
  • Tenco bought 800 KC Aug wheat 670 puts at 8 ½
  • Macquarie sold 1,200 July meal 500 calls at 10.75-10.90 tied to futures at 499.00
  • ABN sold 500 Aug meal 450 puts at 9.50-9.60 and sold 150 Aug futures at 470.00
  • FI bought 1,500 Aug bean oil 40.5 calls and sold 1,500 Aug bean oil 38.5 puts at 30-35 credit
  • FI bought 1,000 Aug bean oil 39/42 call spreads at 65-70
  • JP Morgan bought 700 Aug bean oil 40 calls at 65 and sold 252 Aug futures at 3900
  • ADM sold 20 March crush 70 calls at 8.5

 

Crush quotes

OPEN               CLOSE

JLY            40-40.5             41-42

AUG        44-45                 44.5-45

SEP          99-1.00             1.00-1.02

OCT         85-87                 83-85

DEC         80-80.5             77-78

JAN         73-74                 69.5-71

MCH       70.5-71.5          69.5-70

MAY        68.5-70             68-69

JLY5         65-70                 65.5-67

AUG5     68-76.75            68-76.75

 

Crush and oil share players

  • ADM sold 60 Sept crush at 99.5

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE