From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

May futures expired today at noon CST. Settlements were

  • May corn settled at 494 ¾ down 8 ½ cents on the day
  • May beans settled at 1496 ¼ down 6 cents on the day
  • May wheat settled at 681 down 19 cents on the day
  • May KC wheat settled at 807 ½ down 16 ¾ on the day
  • May meal settled at 497.90 up .20 on the day
  • May bean oil settled at 4119 up 19 tics on the day

 

Goldman Sachs expects corn prices to fall 29% in the next 6 months

 

Goldman Sachs expects bean prices to fall 20% in the next 6 months

 

Goldman Sachs expects wheat prices to fall 18% in the next 6 months

 

Jordan bought 100,000 tons of optional origin (possibly Romania) wheat for Sept shipment

 

Japan seeks 36,000 feed wheat and seeks 95,500 tons of barley via SBS tender for August shipment

 

CWB said Western Canada crop planting is only 6% complete as of Monday vs. 10% complete a year ago and vs. 25% average

 

Saskatchewan crop planting is 10% complete close to the average.

 

July corn closed below the 50 day moving average of 501 ¼ . July corn settled at 495 ½

 

July wheat closed below the 50 day moving average of 695 ¼ . July wheat settled at 690 ¼

 

Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out tomorrow with their Malaysian May 1-15th palm oil export estimates .

 

Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST

 

Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting

  • Wheat old crop 100-300,000; new crop 150-300,000 tons
  • Corn old crop 200-400,000; new crop 150-300,000 tons
  • Beans old crop – 100,000 to – 50,000; new crop 200-350,000 tons
  • Meal old crop 25-150,000; new crop 0-150,000 tons
  • Bean oil old crop 0-20,000; new crop 0-10,000 tons

 

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST

 

Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with 2014 US acreage estimates. Informa’s previous estimates were

  • Corn acreage estimated at 93.029 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 91.7 MA
  • Bean acreage estimated at 81.204 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 81.5 MA
  • All wheat acreage estimated at 56.648 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 55.8 MA
  • Winter wheat acreage estimated at 42.542 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 42.0 MA
  • Cotton acreage estimated at 10.76 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 10.9 MA

 

NOPA April crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST. Expecting

  • Crush average estimate is 132.5 MB, range of estimates are 124.7-141 MB vs. 153.84 MB in March and vs. 120.113 MB in April 2013. April crush ten year average is 128.8 MB
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate is 1.993 billion lbs. range of estimates are 1.925 – 2.030 billion vs. 2.023 B in March and vs. 2.638 B in April 2013
  • Meal exports no estimate is given for meal exports , but March exports were 798,883 tons and April 2013 meal exports were 506,426 tons

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 5K
  • Corn sold 5K
  • Beans bought 2K
  • Meal bought 1K
  • Bean oil bought 1K

 

Open outcry option players

  • FI bought 4,000 Nov bean 1100/1140 put spreads at 11 ¼ – 11 ¾
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 July bean 1440/1380/1320 put fly at 9 ¼ and sold 140 July futures at 1475
  • GFI sold 1,000 Nov bean 1100 puts at 22 ½ sold 200 Nov futures at 1218
  • Tenco sold 2,000 June corn 480 puts at 1 1/8 – 1 ¼
  • ICAP bought 1,000 July corn 500 puts at 15 7/8 and bought 500 July futures at 498
  • New Edge bought 1,000 July corn 510 calls, sold 1,000 July corn 490 calls, bought 1,000 July corn 500 calls and sold 1,000 July corn 520 call condors at 2 credit
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 July wheat 720/750 call spreads at 6 7/8 tied to July futures at 690
  • ADM sold 600 July wheat 705/690 put spreads at 5 7/8
  • ICAP bought 1,000 July meal 480 calls at 14.40 and sold 500 July futures at 479.00
  • Rosenthal sold 100 June bean oil 43 calls at 9

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

M vol 18 ¾ 495 str 12 ¾ -13 ¼

N vol 22 ¾ 495 str 29-29 ¼

Q vol 28 str 490 str 48 ¾ -49 ¼

U vol 28 490 str 57 ½-58

Z vol 25 ¾ 490 str 72 ½-73

H vol 24 500 str 83-84 ½

 

Beans

M vol 16 ½ 1490 str 31 ½-33

N vol 18 1490 str 67-69

Q vol 20 ¼ 1410 str 100-103

U vol 20 ¾ 1280 str 110-113

X vol 20 ¼ 1220 str 130 ½ -132 ½

 

Wheat

M vol 28 ½ 690 str 25-26

N vol 28 690 str 48-50

U vol 28 700 str 81-83

Z vol 26 710 str 105-107

H vol 24 ¾ 730 str 125-130

 

KC wheat

M vol 28 810 str 28-30

N vol 27 ¾ 810 str 56-58

U vol 27 810 str 89-92

Z vol 24 ¼ 820 str 114-116

H vol 23 820 str 130-134

 

Minneapolis wheat

M vol 25 ½ 780 str 22-29

N vol 25 ½ 780 str 47-53

U vol 26 780 str 81-87

Z vol 24 ¾ 790 str 106-112

H vol 24 800 str 125-135

 

Meal

M vol 25.25 480 str 15.5-17

N vol 24 490 str 30-31.5

Q vol 24.5 460 str 39-41

U vol 24.25 420 str 42-44

Z vol 23 390 str 50.5-52.0

 

Bean oil

M vol 17 41.5 str 80-95

N vol 17.5 41.5 str 175-190

Q vol 18.5 41 str 260-280

U vol 19 41 str 315-335

V vol 19.25 41 str 360-385

Z vol 19 41 str 430-455

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN            CLOSE

MAY          20-30             —

JLY              35-35.5         38-39

AUG          47-48             48-49

SEP            98-1.00         1.00-1.02

OCT           86.5-87         85-87

DEC           79.5-80         79.5-80

JAN           73-74             73-74

MCH         72-73             72-73

MAY5       71-72             71.5-72

JLY5           70-71            70.5-71

 

Crush and oil share players

 

ABN bought 60 July crush at 35.5-36

ABN sold 100 Aug crush at 47

Tenco sold 300 Aug crush at 47

Rosenthal sold 100 July oil / 80 meal at 30.15%

Rosenthal bought 52 Dec oil / meal at 34.74%

Rosenthal bought 49 Sept oil / meal at 32.80%

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE

 

Thank you,