From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

China’s HSBC final April PMI came out last night at 48.1 vs. flash estimate of 48.3.

 

Informa FNP estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 87.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.75 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated 2014 rapeseed crop at 2.0 MMT vs. 2013 crop of 2.4 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated rapeseed harvested area at 1.0 MH unchanged from 2013

 

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated rapeseed exports at 1.8 MMT vs. 2.2 MMT in 2013

 

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated rapeseed domestic use at 201,000 tons vs. 141,000 tons a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated rapeseed crush at 200,000 tons vs. 140,000 tons a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated soybean crop at 3.2 MMT vs. 2.8 MMT a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated soybean harvested area at 1.6 MH vs. 1.4 MH a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated soybean exports at 2.0 MMT vs. 1.7 MMT a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated bean domestic use at 1.2 MMT unchanged from a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Ukraine estimated soybean domestic crush at 148,000 vs. 137,000 a year ago

 

On Friday – FranceAgriMer said as of April 28th  78% of the French corn planting has been complete vs. 53% a week ago

 

On Friday – FranceAgriMer said  as of April 28th France’s soft wheat crop was rated 73% good to excellent vs. 74% a week ago

 

On Friday FranceAgriMer said as of April 28th  France winter barley crop was rated 70% vs. 71% from a week ago and the spring barley crop was rated 70% good to excellent vs. 76% a week ago

 

Weekly US export inspections report came out this morning at 10 am CST.

  • Wheat at 537,584 tons (expecting 525-625,000 tons)
  • Corn at 1,239,418 tons (expecting 1.0-1.3 M tons)
  • Beans at 99,502 tons (expecting 100,000-200,000 tons)

 

Lebanon canceled tender for 30,000 optional origin wheat for June shipment

 

Lebanon issued new tender for 30K tons of optional origin milling wheat for June shipment

 

Weekly US crop progress report comes out this afternoon at 3 pm CST . Expecting

  • Corn planting = Reuters estimate is 25-38% complete and analysts estimate is 35-40% complete
  • Bean planting = Reuters about 8% complete and analysts estimate is 10-12% complete
  • Spring wheat planting = Reuters estimate about 26% complete and analysts estimate is 25-30% complete
  • Winter wheat condition expecting steady to 2% lower than a week ago , based on Reuters.

 

Japan markets will be closed tomorrow.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST

 

Hearing China’s bean auction will take place next week. Originally the floor talk was they will auction beans tomorrow.

 

Wednesday night/ Thursday morning China will come out with their April trade dated report

 

CONAB comes out on Thursday with their Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were

  • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 86.08 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.3 MMT
  • ‘13/14 total corn crop estimated at 75.46 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 19.5 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop estimated at 6.7 MMT
  • 2014 wheat exports estimated at 500,000 tons

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Friday with their April data report. In April (March data report) the report was

  • Palm oil stocks at 1.688 MMT
  • Palm oil exports at 1.24 MMT
  • Palm oil output at 1.497 MMT  

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 5K
  • Corn bought 7K
  • Beans sold 4K
  • Meals sold 1K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Open outcry option players

  • GFI sold 2,000 Nov bean 1200/1060 put spreads at 41 ½ and sold 560 Nov futures at 1225
  • RJO sold 1,000 June bean 1400 puts at 4 ¾ – 4 7/8 and sold 160 July futures at 1464
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Nov bean 1140/1040 put spreads at 21 ¾
  • FI sold 1,800 June corn 520 calls at 4 5/8 – 6 ½
  • New Edge bought 700 Sept wheat 730 calls sold 700 Dec wheat 590p/800 call strangles at 3 – 3 ½ debit
  • RJO bought 500 July wheat 700/800 put spreads at 7
  • Rand sold 500 July meal 470 calls at 12 and bought 600 July futures at 480.00
  • JP Morgan sold 800 July bean oil 41 puts at 110

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

M vol 24 ½ 510 str 21-23

N vol 25 ¾ 510 str 37-37 ¾

Q vol 29 ½ 500 str 55-56 ½

U vol 29 ¾ 500 str 64 ½-65 ½

Z vol 27 500 str 79-80

H vol 25 510 str 89-91

 

Beans

M vol 18 ½ 1460 str 48-50

N vol 19 ¼ 1460 str 79 ½-81

Q vol 20 ¾ 1400 str 108-111

U vol 31 1280 str 115-118

X vol 1220 str 133-136

 

Wheat

M vol 28 730 str 37-40

N vol 28 ½ 730 str 58-61

U vol 29 740 str 92-95

Z vol 27 750 str 118-121

H vol 25 ½ 760 str 133-138

 

 

KC Wheat

M vol 29 ¾ 830 str 42-46

N vol 28 ¼ 830 str 65-67

U vol 27 ¼ 830 str 97-100

Z vol 25 ¼ 840 str 123-126

H vol 23 ¾ 840 str 139-142

 

No Minneapolis wheat info today.

 

Meal

M vol 24.25 480 str 19-20.5

N vol 24.25 480 str 30.5-32.0

Q vol 24 .5 450 str 39-40.50

U vol 23.25 420 str 41.5-44

Z vol 21.75 390 str 49-50

 

Oil

M vol 20.75 41 str 140-155

N vol 21 41 str 230-245

Q vol 21 41 str 310-325

U vol 20 .5 41 str 355-370

Z vol 19.75 41 str 450-465

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE

 

Thank you,