From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

New CBOT price limits effective tonight. See attachment for details.

 

Fed announcement headlines – (Bloomberg)

  • *FED: ECONOMY PICKED UP, CONSUMER DEMAND `RISING MORE QUICKLY’
  • *FED TAPERS BOND BUYING TO $45 BLN MONTHLY PACE FROM $55 BLN
  • *FED TO TAPER IN `FURTHER MEASURED STEPS’ IF OUTLOOK HOLDS
  • *FED REPEATS RISKS TO ECONOMIC, JOB OUTLOOK `NEARLY BALANCED’
  • *FED SEES HOLDING MAIN RATE FOR CONSIDERABLE TIME AFTER QE ENDS
  • *FED SAYS LABOR MARKET IMPROVING, UNEMPLOYMENT STILL ELEVATED

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s April palm oil exports at 1,220,662 tons up 1.7% from March

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s April palm oil exports at 1,220,882 tons up 1.32% from March .

 

Oil World expects palm oil imports to pick up before Ramadan

 

India lowered minimum export price for edible oils to $1,100 per ton from $1,400 per ton

 

Oil World expects 2014 EU rapeseed output to be second largest on record.

 

Oil World estimated Jan – June 2014 EU bean imports at 7.6 MMT vs. 7.1 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated ‘13/14 EU crush of 10 leading oilseeds at a record of 44.8 MMT vs. 43.2 MMT in ‘12/13

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s March bean crush at 2.103 MMT vs. 1.721 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s Jan – March bean crush at 5.6 MMT vs. 4.6 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s Jan – March sunseed crush at 680,000 tons vs. 1.0 MMT a year ago

 

Reports of Argentina meal cargo headed to eastern US.

 

Argentina’s Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 55.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 54.0 MMT

 

Today was the second day of the US HRW wheat tour. Surveyors were in southwest Kansas – the first 13 fields surveyed average yield estimated at 27.0 BPA vs. 37.1 BPA a year ago

 

From yesterday – EIA Feb ethanol production at 1.066 billion gallons. Corn used to produce ethanol 382 MB (expecting 380 MB)

 

From yesterday – EIA January biofuel production was 70 million gallons (including 241 million pounds of bean oil)  vs. 65 million gallons in December .

 

Yesterday – Colorado Association of Wheat Growers estimated 2014 wheat yield at 32.0 BPA vs. 27.0 BPA a year ago

 

Yesterday – Nebraska Wheat Board estimated winter wheat yield in the low 40s vs. 40-45 BPA average

 

India Pulses and Grains Association estimated ‘14/15 wheat exports at 4.8 MMT , including 2.0 MMT of wheat from reserves, vs. ‘13/14 wheat exports of 4.5 MMT

 

July bean oil closed above the 200 day moving average of 4205. July bean oil settled at 4211

 

Tomorrow is May Day. Some Asian (China) and European markets will be closed. Argentina and Brazil will also be closed.

 

Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST

 

Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting

  • Wheat old crop 150,000 – 350,000 , new crop 250,000 – 450,000
  • Corn old crop 450,000 – 675,000 , new crop 200,000 – 500,000
  • Beans old crop – 250, 000 to + 100,000 , new crop 250,000 – 450,000
  • Meal old crop 50,000 – 190,000 , new crop 0- 75,000
  • Bean oil old crop 0-50,000 , new crop 0 – 10,000

 

EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +78 BCF.

 

Tomorrow is the last day of the US HRW wheat tour. Final results from tour comes out tomorrow afternoon.

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat bought 2,000
  • Corn sold 4,000
  • Beans sold 3,000
  • Meal bought 1,000
  • Bean oil sold 3,000

 

Open outcry option players

  • Rand bought 5,000 Nov bean 1200/1100 put spreads at 21 ¾ -22 and bought 1,000 Nov bean futures at 1240
  • ICAP sold 2,000 July beans 1300/1350 put spreads at 2 ¾
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 July short dated bean 1200/1100 put spreads at 13-13 ¼
  • GFI bought 1,500 July bean 1500/1540 call spreads at 17 5/8 – 17 ¾
  • FI bought 11,000 Sept short dated corn 450/425 put spreads at 5 – 5 1/8  (mostly at 5 1/8 )
  • Jefferies bought 2,000 July corn futures at 518 and sold 2,000 July corn 480 calls at 44 ¾ -45
  • ICAP bought 600 Dec corn 510 straddles at 82 ¼ -82 ½
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 June wheat 730 calls at 13 and sold 380 July futures at 713
  • RJO bought 1,600 July wheat 630/570 put spreads at 2 7/8 – 3 ½
  • ABN bought 1,000 July KC wheat 800 puts at 32 tied to futures at 801
  • Rosenthal bought 500 July meal 500 calls at 13.50
  • FI bought 800 Dec meal 450 calls sold 400 Dec meal 400 calls at 4.00 credit
  • ADM sold 500 July bean oil 4150 puts at 100

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

M vol 25 ¼ 520 str 25 ½ -26 ½

N vol 26 ¾ 520 str 40 ¾ -41 ¾

Q vol 29 ¾ 510 str 58-59 ½

U vol 29 ¾ 510 str 67-68

Z vol 27 510 str 81 ¾ -82 ¼

H vol 25 520 str 93-94

 

Beans

M vol 19 ¾ 1510 str 59 ½ -61 ½

N vol 20 ¾ 1510 str 93-95

Q vol 22 1430 str 120-124

U vol 22 1300 str 125-130

X vol 20 ½ 1240 str 141-144

 

Wheat

M vol 24 ½ 720 str 36-38

N vol 26 ½ 720 str 56-59

U vol 27 ½ 730 str 89-91

Z vol 26 ¾ 740 str 116-121

H vol 25 ½ 750 str 135-143

 

KC Wheat

M vol 25 ½ 810 str 40-42

N vol 26 ¼ 810 str 62-65

U vol 26 ½ 820 str 93-99

Z vol 25 ¼ 820 str 121-125

H vol 24 ½ 820 str 140-148

 

Minneapolis wheat

M vol 25 ½ 760 str 38-44

N vol 25 ½ 760 str 54-60

U vol 26 ½ 770 str 88-94

Z vol 25 ¾ 780 str 114-120

 

Meal

M vol 24 490 str 24-26

N vol 23.50 490 str 35.5-37.5

Q vol 23.75 460 str 43-45

U vol 23 430 str 45-47

V vol 22 400 str 46-48

Z vol 22 400 str 53-55

 

Bean oil

M vol 20 ½ 42 str 170-185

N vol 20.25 42 str 245-260

Q vol 20.25 42 str 320-340

U vol 20.25 42 str 360-385

V vol 20 41.5 str 400-430

Z vol 19.5 41.5 str 460-490

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN             CLOSE

MAY           45-47.5          38-40

JLY              36.5-37           36-37.5

AUG          43.5-44.5        43-44

SEP            99-1.00            99-1.00

OCT           85-86                84.5-85

DEC           79.5-80             79.5-80

JAN           73-73.5             73-74

MCH         72-73                 72-73

MAY5       71-72                 71.5-72

JLY5          70-71                  70-71

 

Crush players

  • ABN bought 50 July at 35
  • ABN bought 50 August at 43
  • ABN sold 60 Dec at 79.5
  • ADM sold 100 Aug at 43-44
  • Tenco sold 50 XUU at 1.62

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE