From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

 

China’s customs data showed China imported 550,000 tons of veg oil in March vs. 710,000 tons in February and vs. 700,000 tons in March 2013

 

Goldman Sachs expects to see a big price decline in soybeans in the second half of 2014.

 

Commodity Weather Group said warmer weather the next two weeks may accelerate US planting.

 

Beneficial rains in the forecast for Ukraine wheat areas for the next five days

 

More CONAB Brazilian crop estimates from today

  • ‘13/14 bean crop at 86.08 MMT vs. previous estimate of 85.44 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 87.5 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean area at 30.996 MH vs. previous estimate of 29.798 MH
  • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 bean carryover stocks estimated at 1.91 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean domestic use estimated at 40.08 MMT
  • ‘13/14 meal and pellets exports estimated at 13.58 MMT
  • ‘13/14 meal and pellets carryover stocks estimated at 1.31 MMT
  • ‘13/14 meal and pellets domestic use at 14.10 MMT
  • ’13/14 bean oil exports estimated at 1.37 MMT
  • ‘13/14 bean oil carryover stocks estimated at 493,000 tons
  • ‘13/14 bean oil domestic use estimated at 5.5 MMT
  •  ‘13/14 corn crop at   75.46 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.18 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 72.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn area at 15.646 MH vs. previous estimate of 15.128 MH
  • ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 19.5 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn carryover stocks estimated at 11.04 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn domestic use estimated at 53.82 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop at 6.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.5 MMT
  • 2014 wheat area at 2.52 MH
  • 2014 wheat exports estimated 500,000 tons
  • 2014 wheat carryover stocks estimated at 1.92 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat domestic use estimated at 11.93 MMT
  • ‘13/14 rice crop at 12.699 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.770 MMT
  • ‘13/14 rice area at 2.427 MH vs. previous estimate of 2.486 MH
  • ‘13/14 rice exports estimated at 1.40 MMT
  • ‘13/14 rice carryover stocks estimated at 2.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 rice domestic use estimated at 12.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 cotton crop estimated at 1.644 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 cotton area estimated at 1.095 MH vs. previous estimate of 1.092 MH
  • ‘13/14 cotton exports estimated at 575,000 tons
  • ‘13/14 cotton carryover stocks estimated at 527,000 tons
  • ‘13/14 cotton domestic use estimated at 900,000 tons

 

China’s PPI and CPI comes out tonight / tomorrow morning

 

Tomorrow is the last day of the index fund roll.

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 4K
  • Corn sold 2K
  • Beans sold 5K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil  sold 3K

 

Open outcry option players

  • JP Morgan sold 700 May bean 1440 puts at 6 ¼ – 6 ½ and sold 140 May futures at 1492
  • ABN bought 2,000 July bean 1450 puts at 47 ¼ -47 ½ and bought 880 July futures at 1463
  • Bunge sold 2,500 July bean 1400/1420 call spreads
  • RJO bought 2,000 May bean 1400 puts at 3.
  • Bunge sold 1,500 July bean 1380/1400 call spreads at 13 ¾
  • Bunge bought 1,500 July bean 1400 calls and sold 1,500 Nov bean 1200 calls at 10-10 ½ debit
  • GFI  bought 1,500 July bean 1160 puts at 44 ¼ -45 ¼
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Dec corn 650 calls at 9 ¼
  • Tenco bought 1,500 May corn 520 calls at 2-2 3/8
  • RJO sold 1,500 May corn 510 calls at 5
  • Tenco bought 900 July wheat 540 puts at 1 ½
  • Tenco bought 1,000 July wheat 640 puts at 18 ¾ -19
  • ICAP bought 1,000 May wheat 640p /700 c combos at 2 ¼ tied to futures at 663
  • Tenco bought 400 June KC wheat 670 puts at 6
  • Bunge bought 500 May meal 470/430 put spreads at 6.00-6.10
  • Bunge bought 500 May 470/440 put spreads at 5.90-6.00
  • RJO bought 300 Sept bean oil 44 calls at 130

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

K vol 21 500 str 16 ½-17

M vol 24 ¼ 510 str 33-34 ½

N vol 26 ¾ 510 str 47 ½-48 ½

U vol 30 510 str 73-74 ½

Z vol 27 ½ 510 str 87-88

H vol 25 ½ 510 str 95 ½-97

 

Beans

K vol 19 1480 str 46-48

M vol 21 ¼ 1480 str 84-87

N vol 21 ¼ 1460 str 108-111

U vol 21 ½ 1280 str 131-135

X vol 20 ¼ 1220 str 143-146

 

Wheat

K vol 24 660 str 25-27

M vol 27 670 str 48-51

N vol 28 ½ 670 str 67-68

U vol 28 ¾ 680 str 92-95

Z vol 27 ¼ 690 str 116-119

 

KC wheat

K vol 22 ¾ 720 str 26-29

M vol 25 730 str 49-52

N vol 26 ¾ 730 str 67-71

U vol 26 ¼ 740 str 91-95

Z vol 25 ½ 750 str 116-121

 

Meal

K vol 24.5 480 str 19.5-20.5

M vol 24 470 str 31-33

N vol 24 470 str 39.5-41

Q vol 23.5 440 str 44-46

U vol 22.75 410 str 44.5-46

Z vol 21.25 380 str 49.5-51.5

 

Bean oil

K vol 20.5 42.5 str 125-150

M vol 20.5 42.5 str 230-250

N vol 20.5 42.5 str 295-310

Q vol 20.25 42.5 str 355-380

U vol 191.75 42 str 390-415

Z vol 19 42 str 480-510

 

Crush quotes

OPEN            CLOSE

MAY         38.5-39          40-41

JLY             34.5-35         34-35

AUG          45-46             45.5-47

SEP            90-99             92.5-96

OCT           81.5-83         82.5-84

DEC           76.5-77         78-79

JAN           69.5-71         71-72

MCH         69-70             69.5-70

MAY5       68-70             68.5-70

JLY5           68-70             67-68.5

 

Crush players

  • ADM sold 40 July at 34
  • Tenco sold 100 May at 40

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE