From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 12/02/14

News:

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for January shipment

 

Russian grain lobby asks government not to curb exports.

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 58.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 58.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 52.1 MMT

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 wheat domestic use at 34.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘13/14 domestic use of 34.5 MMT

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 wheat exports at 22.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.5 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 exports of 18.3 MMT

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 wheat ending stocks at 7.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.3 MMT and vs. 5.8 MMT in ‘13/14

 

South American weather forecasts remain favorable through December.

 

CME to raise bean oil margins, effective this afternoon.

 

Jan beans closed well below the 100 day moving average of 1021 ¼ . Jan beans settled at 995 ¾

 

Jan meal closed below the 200 day moving average of 360.60. Jan meal settled at 357.90

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn sold 10K
  • Beans sold 9K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 6K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Stats Canada comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST with their Canadian 2014 crop production estimate updates. Based on a Reuters survey
    • All wheat average estimate is 27.8 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 27.4813 MMT and vs. 2013 all wheat crop of 37.5296 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate is 4.8 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 4.7559 MMT and vs. 2013 durum wheat crop of 6.5045 MMT
    • Canola average estimate is 14.6 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 14.0799 MMT and vs. 2013 canola crop of 17.9658 MMT
    • Oats average estimate is 2.7 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 2.6858 MMT and vs. 2013 oat crop of 3.9056 MMT
    • Barley average estimate is 7.2 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 7.1196 MMT and vs. 2013 barley crop of 10.2371 MMT
    • Peas average estimate 3.5 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 3.5083 MMT and vs. 2013 pea crop of 3.9608 MMT
    • Flax average estimate .895 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of .9216 MMT and vs. 2013 flax crop of .7239 MMT
    • Corn average estimate 11.6 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 11.3969 MMT and vs. 2013 corn crop of 14.1938 MMT
    • Beans average estimate 5.9 MMT vs. Stats Can October estimate of 5.9608 MMT and vs. 2013 bean crop of 5.3589 MMT

 

Open outcry option players:

  • Drax bought 1,000 Jan bean 980/930 put spreads at 8 ¾-9 ¼
  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Jan bean 990 puts at 15 ¼-15 ½
  • Mizuho sold 1,000 March bean 1020 straddles at 82 ¼-83
  • Mizuho sold 1,000 March bean 1010 straddles at 81 ¼-81 ½
  • ABN bought 2,000 March bean 1020 puts and sold 2,000 Jan bean 1020 puts at 16 ¼ debit. Bought 920 March bean futures at 1024 and sold 1,060 Jan bean futures at 1018
  • FI bought 3,000 Jan bean 980/950 put spreads at 7 ¾ .
  • Rand sold 1,000 Feb corn 370 puts at 7 ½ -8 5/8
  • Rand bought 1,000 Jan corn 380 puts at 6 3/8
  • Rand bought 1,000 Jan corn 380 puts at 5 5/8
  • ADM bought 1,500 Jan corn 370 puts at 2 5/8 -2 ¾
  • ADM sold 1,000 Jan corn 380 calls at 12
  • ICAP bought 1,000 March corn 350-300 put spread at 4 ¼
  • UBS bought 1,500 March wheat 575 puts and sold 2,250 March corn 370 puts at 1 -1 ¼ credit
  • JP Morgan bought 1,800 Jan wheat 650 calls at 6-7
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March wheat 590-550 put spreads at 13 3/8 tied to futures at 606 ½
  • Drax bought 1,000 July wheat 610 put/710 call combos at 29 vs. July futures at 610
  • JP Morgan bought 2,000 May wheat 650 calls at 22
  • Tenco bought 500 March wheat 610 calls and sold 1,000 March wheat 650 calls at ¾ debit
  • ABN sold 1,000 March wheat 570/610 call spreads at 20 ¾ tied to futures at 603.
  • Rand bought 500 May KC wheat 600 puts at 14 ½
  • Rand bought 500 July meal 300 puts and sold 1,000 July meal 250 puts at 5.75
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March meal 380 calls at 6.40 -6.60
  • Jefferies bought 500 Jan bean oil 31 puts at 45
  • RJO bought 1,100 March bean oil 32.5-34.5 call spreads at 62-65
  • JP Morgan bought 500 March bean oil 31 puts at 73 tied to Jan futures at 3195
  • Drax bought 700 March bean oil 30 puts at 55-57 tied to futures at 3175

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

F vol 21 380 str 16-17

G vol 24 ¼ 380 str 27 ¼-28 ¼

H vol 24 ½ 380 str 34 ¼-34 ¾

K vol 24 ½ 390 str 47-48

N vol 25 400 str 59 ½- 60 ½

U vol 25 ¾ 400 str 69-70

Z15 vol 23 ¾ 410 str 76-76 ½

 

Beans:

F vol 20 ¾ 1000 str 42-44

H vol 21 ½ 1000 str 79-81

K vol 21 1000 str 105-107

N vol 21 ¼ 1020 str 126-129

X vol 19 ½ 980 str 140-143

 

Wheat:

F vol 32 600 str 39-42

G vol 28 ¾ 600 str 51-53

H vol 26 ½ 600 str 58-60

K vol 25 ¾ 610 str 76-80

N vol 25 ½ 610 str 90-95

U vol 25 620 str 100-118

Z vol 23 630 str 110-118

 

KC wheat:

F vol 29 650 str 38-40

H vol 23 ½ 650 str 56-59

K vol 23 650 str 73-78

N vol 23 ¼ 650 str 89-94

 

Minneapolis wheat:

H vol 20 ½ 630 str 46-51

K vol 21 ¼ 640 str 65-71

N vol 21 ¾ 650 str 79-84

 

Meal:

F vol 30 360 str 22.5-24

H vol 27.75 340 str 36-38

K vol 24.5 340 str 41.5-43.5

N vol 23 340 str46.5-48.5

Q vol 22.25 340 str 48-50

 

Bean oil:

F vol 22 31 str 145-155

G vol 21.5 31.5 str 205-225

H vol 21 31.5 str 250-270

K vol 20.5 32 str 315-335

N vol 19.5 32 str 370-390

Q vol 19.25 32 str 385-400

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                 CLOSE

FZZ          1.83-1.91          1.85-1.95

JAN         1.34-1.35          1.35-1.365

MCH       99.5-1.00          98-98.5

MAY        81-82                 80.5-81.5

JLY           76.5-77.5          77-77.5

AUG       75-77.5              75.5-77

SEP         90-99                   92-94

OCT        93-95                  92-93.5

DEC        88.5-90               88-88.5

JAN6      85-88                  84-85

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • New Edge bought 180 Jan, Dec, Dec crush at 189
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE