From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 12/01/14

News:

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazilian ‘14/15 corn crop at 75.5 MMT down 2.2% from a year ago.

 

Talk/reports that a French feed wheat cargo was sold into the US southeast coast

 

USDA attaché in China estimated ‘14/15 oilseed crop at 55.8 MMT down 5% from ‘13/14 due to lower peanut and cottonseed crops. Including

  • ‘14/15 bean crop estimated at 12.0 MMT down 1.6% from ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 rapeseed crop estimated at 14.1 MMT down 2.5% from ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 peanut crop estimated at 16.0 MMT down 5.7% from ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 cottonseed crop estimated at 11.3 MMT down 11.6% from ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 bean crop at 57.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. USDA estimate of 55.0 MMT

 

Rabobank estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 92.0 MMT (record)

 

Rabobank forecasted 1st quarter CBOT soybean price at $9.70 per bushel.

 

Concerns about winterkill in Russian , eastern Ukraine, and US wheat crop. Cold weather with a lack of snow cover.

 

Local meteorologist in Argentina said dry spell after rains creates ideal growing conditions for the ‘14/15 corn and bean crop

 

Brazilian Trade Ministry – November exports

  • Soybeans = 176,600 tons vs. 740,800 tons in October and vs. 647,900 tons in November 2013
  • Meal = 980,000 tons vs. 1.18 MMT tons in October and vs. 1.27 MMT in November 2013
  • Bean oil = 100,700 tons vs. 96,900 tons in October and vs. 87,000 tons in November 2013
  • Corn = 2,978,900 tons vs. 3,178,400 in October and vs. 3,911,900 tons in November 2013

 

Weekly US export inspections came out this morning at 10 am CST

  • Wheat = 273,055 tons, expecting 325,000-475,000 tons
  • Corn =  743,769 tons, expecting 600,000- 800,000 tons
  • Beans = 1,849,221 tons, expecting 2.4-2.7 million tons

 

Today was the last day of the Rogers roll. They have been rolling January beans, meal, and bean oil to March. On the close

  • 7,312 January/March bean spreads traded at -7 to – 6 ¾
  • 1,289 January/March soymeal spreads traded at 12.50-13.60
  • 2,066 January/March bean oil spreads traded at -20 to -18

 

Jan beans closed below the 100 day moving average of 1022. Jan beans settled at 1017.

 

The low of the day in Jan beans was 1006 ½ which is an 11 day low

 

Jan soymeal closed above the 200 day moving average of 360.50. Jan soymeal settled at 362.00

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 13K
  • Corn bought 1K
  • Beans bought 1K
  • Meal sold 3K
  • Bean oil bought 3K

 

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST. Delayed due to US holiday last week.
  • Weekly US crop progress reports are finished for the season. Weekly reports resume on April 6th, 2015.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST

 

Open outcry option players:

  • FI sold 600 July bean 1000 puts at 51
  • Jefferies bought 500 March short dated 980/1020 call spreads at 11
  • Goldman Sachs bought 6,500 May corn 450/500 call spreads at 5 ¼ -5 3/8
  • RJO bought 1,000 Jan corn 350-375 put spreads at 3 7/8
  • ICAP bought 700 March corn 370/340 put spreads at 7
  • ICAP bought 1,000 March corn 350/300 put spreads at 4
  • Rosenthal bought 600 March wheat 580/540 put spreads at 16 ½-16 ¾
  • Drax bought 1,000 March wheat 590 calls , sold 1,000 Jan wheat 590 calls and sold 1,000 March wheat 550 puts at a ½ credit , tied to futures at 586 ½
  • New Edge bought 600 Jan KC wheat 640 calls and sold 400 March KC wheat 610 puts at 7 ¾
  • New Edge bought 500 Jan KC wheat 650 calls and bought 500 March KC wheat 620 puts at 6
  • RJO sold 500 Jan meal 365 puts at 12.00-12.50
  • Jefferies sold 600 March meal 360 puts at 25-26.00
  • Jefferies bought 550 March bean oil 32-30.50 put spreads at 55
  • EDF Mann bought 1,000 Jan bean oil 32.5-33.5 call spreads at 35-38
  • Bunge sold 300 March bean oil 32.5 puts at 117

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

 

Corn:

F vol 22 390 str 17-18

G vol 24 ½ 390 str 28 ½-29 ½

H vol 24 ½ 390 str 35 ¾-36 ¼

K vol 24 ¾ 400 str 49-50

N vol 25 ¼ 410 str 61-62 ½

U vol 25 ¾ 410 str 70 ½-72

Z15 vol 23 ¾ 420 str 77-78

 

Beans:

F vol 21 ¼ 1020 str 45-47

H vol 22 1020 str 83 ½-85 ½

K vol 21 ¼ 1030 str 109-112

N vol 21 ½ 1040 str 130-133

X vol 19 ½ 1000 str 144-148

 

Wheat:

F vol 27 ¼ 610 str 37-39

G vol 25 ¼ 610 str 48-50

H vol 24 610 str 55-57

K vol 23 ½ 610 str 72-75

N vol 24 ¼ 620 str 90-93

U vol 24 620 str 100-103

Z vol 22 ¾ 630 str 110-115

 

KC wheat:

F vol 24 660 str 35-37

H vol 21 ½ 660 str 53-56

K vol 21 ¾ 660 str 72-75

N vol 22 ¼ 660 str 88-91

 

Minneapolis wheat:

H vol 20 ¼ 630 str 45-51

K vol 21 ¼ 640 str 65-71

N vol 21 ¾ 650 str 78-84

 

Meal:

F vol 31 360 str 23.5-25.0

H vol 26.5 350 str 37-39

K vol 24.5 340 str 42-44

N vol 23.5 340 str 47.5-49

Q vol 22.25 340 str 48-50

 

Bean oil:

F vol 21 32.5 str 140-150

G vol 20.75 32.5 str 200-215

H vol 20.25 32.5 str 240-255

K vol 19.75 33 str 315-330

N vol 19.5 33 str 370-400

Q vol 19 33 str 385-420

 

Crush quotes:

OPEN                  CLOSE

FZZ         1.88-1.95         1.80-1.87

JAN        1.405-1.43       1.34-1.37

MCH      1.05-1.06         1.01-1.03

MAY      84-84.5              83-84

JLY          78.5-79             78-78.5

AUG       76-77                75-78

SEP         91-97                 91-98

OCT        92-93.4              93-95

DEC         87.5-88.5         89-90

JAN6       84-88                82-89

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ADM sold 50 Jan crush at 1.3825-1.385
  • No oil share players in the pit today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE